ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

I am at work and can't do these reliably. If someone else wants to take over please do so.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon is already finding winds in the 50kt range and they haven't even started down toward the center yet!

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

It's like clockwork with low riding Caribbea storms. Once they clear the influence of SA they take off.

Amazing isn't it. Now it has consolidated once again and is ready to ramp up.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061150
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 19 20120806
114200 1628N 07941W 8433 01574 0125 +147 +084 115048 050 029 007 00
114230 1626N 07943W 8430 01579 0128 +146 +086 116045 048 029 007 00
114300 1625N 07944W 8431 01575 0124 +148 +088 115045 046 028 006 00
114330 1624N 07945W 8429 01578 0120 +151 +089 113044 045 025 003 00
114400 1623N 07947W 8429 01577 0115 +159 +091 112043 044 023 001 00
114430 1621N 07948W 8429 01577 0114 +159 +094 110043 043 024 001 00
114500 1620N 07949W 8428 01577 0114 +157 +097 110043 043 024 002 00
114530 1619N 07951W 8429 01577 0121 +147 +100 110046 048 025 002 00
114600 1618N 07952W 8425 01578 0114 +154 +102 112046 048 025 003 00
114630 1616N 07953W 8431 01572 0111 +158 +104 112048 048 028 002 00
114700 1615N 07955W 8432 01571 0110 +162 +106 112045 048 032 001 00
114730 1614N 07956W 8426 01577 0112 +157 +108 111044 045 032 001 00
114800 1613N 07957W 8433 01571 0116 +154 +110 112042 045 032 003 00
114830 1611N 07958W 8416 01586 0116 +147 +112 106042 043 033 005 00
114900 1610N 08000W 8431 01568 0110 +152 +112 105042 044 029 002 00
114930 1609N 08001W 8426 01571 0103 +157 +111 107043 044 028 003 00
115000 1607N 08002W 8430 01566 0105 +155 +112 107045 045 031 002 00
115030 1606N 08004W 8432 01563 0103 +155 +112 108044 045 031 001 00
115100 1605N 08005W 8430 01566 0104 +155 +113 108045 046 031 003 00
115130 1604N 08006W 8429 01563 0101 +155 +114 106046 046 033 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[tailgater]

This looks like the real thing this time I say with a little caution, it's like a bomb went off and a blast is expanding outward. I don't think it's a low level outflow but one farther up.

[JamesCaneTracker]

1002mb Pressure and quickly falling!

And the Center is East of where the 5am Update placed it based on the direction Recon is headed!

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061201
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120806
115200 1602N 08008W 8431 01561 0098 +157 +115 103045 045 034 002 00
115230 1601N 08009W 8429 01561 0093 +162 +115 100045 045 035 002 00
115300 1600N 08010W 8430 01558 0086 +172 +116 096045 046 035 002 00
115330 1558N 08012W 8429 01558 0085 +171 +118 093044 045 034 002 00
115400 1557N 08013W 8426 01561 0082 +173 +120 090043 044 031 001 00
115430 1555N 08014W 8429 01557 0081 +172 +122 089042 044 032 001 00
115500 1554N 08015W 8428 01558 0078 +179 +124 083039 040 030 001 00
115530 1552N 08015W 8431 01553 0075 +183 +126 079038 039 031 002 03
115600 1550N 08015W 8429 01556 0072 +186 +129 074038 038 031 001 00
115630 1549N 08015W 8429 01555 0070 +188 +131 070038 039 032 002 00
115700 1547N 08015W 8430 01552 0067 +186 +134 067037 039 034 002 00
115730 1545N 08014W 8430 01549 0062 +190 +136 062036 036 033 002 00
115800 1544N 08014W 8430 01549 0059 +196 +138 060035 036 031 004 00
115830 1542N 08013W 8433 01546 0055 +202 +140 060034 035 031 004 00
115900 1541N 08012W 8432 01546 0051 +205 +142 057036 037 031 003 00
115930 1539N 08012W 8431 01546 0057 +194 +144 056041 043 033 004 00
120000 1537N 08011W 8425 01549 0055 +191 +145 048044 046 040 005 00
120030 1536N 08010W 8431 01539 0046 +200 +146 034039 046 041 004 03
120100 1534N 08009W 8416 01552 0033 +216 +146 022034 036 050 003 00
120130 1533N 08008W 8431 01532 0022 +225 +148 012035 039 052 004 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

And the NW quadrant is getting moister. The bands there have finally fleshed-out slightly and should continue to do so.

I think the center is more tucked-in to the curl than most realize and Ernie is getting ready for business. Now we'll see if it makes hurricane prior to Belize.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Recon making hard left turn towards center, it appears, so it is tucked under.

[NDG]

Looks like Ernesto's LLC reformed closer to the MLC during the night.

[NDG]

So far recon has found an unflagged 52 knot surface winds.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[AJC3]

I am at work and can't do these reliably. If someone else wants to take over please do so.

I can jump in here anytime...

[tolakram]

I'll take 21 and graphic, then I'm out.

[cycloneye]

Recon making hard left turn towards center, it appears, so it is tucked under.

That is a really hard turn by them.It means is not moving much or it has reformed more to the center of convection.

[AJC3]

I'll take 21 and graphic, then I'm out.

I can get both. Go ahead and take a break.

[tolakram]

thanks