ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

BEST TRACK: AL05, 156N 801W, 55kts, 994mb, TS

Wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory including hurricane warnings for parts of the coast of Honduras.

Neither would I, but I think RI may be happening, MAYBE..it's my opinion. But pressure has gone from 1003-994 in 5 hours!

[SouthDadeFish]

Dropsonde reported 43 knot winds at the surface when it got 997 mb. Pressure is lower than that and is why best track says 994mb.

[RL3AO]

Stacked center, low shear, hot SSTs, closed eyewall, large temp contrast. Really appears that RI is imminent. Hopefully we don't have another Hurricane Joan on our hands.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For people who don't know I.e. guests and other people...can one of the mods explain RI specifically?

[JamesCaneTracker]

BEST TRACK: AL05, 156N 801W, 55kts, 994mb, TS

Wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory including hurricane warnings for parts of the coast of Honduras.

Neither would I, but I think RI may be happening, MAYBE..it's my opinion. But pressure has gone from 1003-994 in 5 hours!

We can't really say how quickly Pressure is dropping until the next pass through. The NHC were just guessing at the pressure based on all available data but Recon wasn't in the system to give us the exact pressure so it could have been lower to start with then 1003mb!

[cycloneye]

For people who don't know I.e. guests and other people...can one of the mods explain RI specifically?

Rapid Intensification.

[JamesCaneTracker]

For people who don't know I.e. guests and other people...can one of the mods explain RI specifically?

Rapid Intensification.

lol I think he was asking specifically what Rapid Intensification means...

[AJC3]

[RL3AO]

I think the definition is 42mb drop in pressure in 24 hours but the term is used pretty liberally (and too much IMO) but it appears I'm just as guilty of using it.

[AJC3]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061238 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/12:13:30Z
B. 15 deg 34 min N
079 deg 59 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 56 kt
E. 291 deg 5 nm
F. 170 deg 55 kt
G. 100 deg 4 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 24 C / 1469 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C6
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:14:30Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;

(CCA removed: MAX FL TEMP 24 C 211 / 0 NM FROM FL CNTR)

[SouthDadeFish]

A very tight pressure gradient, so I wouldn't be surprised if they find some nice winds in the eyewall on the next pass.

[drezee]

Ernesto wants some ACE and will get it if this continues. The THCP is the highest in the entire basin in the NW caribbean. Also, it is like 15.6N and will likely clear Honduras. NHC should send out an update...

[Dave]

I'm up and on if anyone needs a break. Stayed up too late watching Curiosity land on Mars this morning.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061250
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120806
124200 1448N 08024W 8430 01561 0078 +182 +144 259010 011 000 003 00
124230 1448N 08022W 8429 01561 0078 +181 +145 259013 014 000 004 00
124300 1448N 08020W 8429 01561 0079 +181 +145 253014 014 000 005 00
124330 1448N 08018W 8430 01559 0079 +180 +146 244015 015 000 003 00
124400 1448N 08016W 8429 01562 0079 +180 +146 239015 015 001 003 00
124430 1449N 08015W 8430 01559 0082 +178 +146 239015 016 001 004 00
124500 1449N 08015W 8430 01559 0083 +176 +146 237015 015 003 004 00
124530 1449N 08011W 8429 01562 0086 +172 +146 235016 016 007 003 00
124600 1449N 08009W 8429 01562 0085 +173 +145 235016 017 006 004 00
124630 1449N 08007W 8431 01558 0084 +173 +144 234016 017 010 004 00
124700 1449N 08006W 8430 01561 0085 +174 +143 234016 017 012 004 00
124730 1449N 08006W 8430 01561 0086 +171 +142 229016 016 013 004 00
124800 1450N 08002W 8429 01562 0088 +167 +142 229016 017 009 004 00
124830 1450N 08000W 8431 01559 0087 +169 +141 228017 018 010 005 00
124900 1450N 07958W 8429 01561 0083 +176 +140 214023 023 013 003 00
124930 1450N 07956W 8429 01562 0084 +177 +138 211021 023 016 002 00
125000 1450N 07955W 8432 01558 0087 +169 +139 208020 021 014 004 00
125030 1450N 07953W 8429 01561 0088 +168 +139 204021 021 013 004 00
125100 1450N 07951W 8429 01563 0087 +172 +139 204023 024 011 005 00
125130 1450N 07949W 8429 01563 0088 +171 +138 202025 026 016 004 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

Rapid deepening, also known as rapid intensification, is a meteorological condition that occurs when the minimum sea-level atmospheric pressure of a tropical cyclone decreases drastically in a short period of time. The National Weather Service describes rapid deepening as a decrease of 42 millibars in less than 24 hours.[1] However, this phrase is liberally applied to most storms undergoing rapid intensification.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_deepening

[Sanibel]

15.6 is north of predicted track. (May be catching different steering winds with the higher tops)

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Rapid deepening, also known as rapid intensification, is a meteorological condition that occurs when the minimum sea-level atmospheric pressure of a tropical cyclone decreases drastically in a short period of time. The National Weather Service describes rapid deepening as a decrease of 42 millibars in less than 24 hours.[1] However, this phrase is liberally applied to most storms undergoing rapid intensification.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_deepening

Thank you...knew a little bit and thank you cycloneye, not sure if you were being funny or not.

[AJC3]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With a pressure of 994mb it's just a matter of hours before this reacts to the Pressure Drops and the winds come up to Hurricane strength. If the current intensification continues it's not a question of IF Ernesto becomes a Hurricane it's now a question of when!

[RL3AO]

A closed circular eyewall is certainly well past the usual structure of a moderate to strong tropical storm. It might be stronger then 55kt now or will be soon.