ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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drezee
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3561 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:59 am

Sanibel wrote:15.6 is north of predicted track. (May be catching different steering winds with the higher tops)

You're correct. From the 0300z last night, it is NE of the forecast. Not really a movement, but position change none the less...

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 81.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3562 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:02 am

Should nhc add Special Advisory or wait till 11 for more info?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3563 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:03 am

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Should nhc add Special Advisory or wait till 11 for more info?


Wouldn't surprise me if they are in contact with the Honduran govt right now about an upgrade to hurricane warning.
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#3564 Postby Dave » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:06 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 061300
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 26 20120806
125200 1451N 07948W 8429 01563 0099 +155 +138 200025 027 022 010 00
125230 1451N 07946W 8424 01569 0098 +158 +136 198026 027 023 008 00
125300 1451N 07944W 8430 01563 0093 +169 +132 196026 027 021 005 00
125330 1451N 07942W 8429 01567 0094 +167 +130 196028 028 017 005 00
125400 1451N 07940W 8429 01566 0093 +169 +129 197029 030 021 007 00
125430 1451N 07939W 8417 01576 0100 +155 +130 197028 034 033 020 00
125500 1451N 07937W 8429 01562 0100 +150 +130 195036 037 033 016 00
125530 1451N 07935W 8426 01566 0100 +151 +127 193033 034 037 014 00
125600 1452N 07933W 8428 01563 0107 +140 +124 188033 034 036 012 00
125630 1452N 07932W 8438 01553 0098 +157 +121 192028 034 036 011 00
125700 1452N 07930W 8430 01563 0105 +151 +120 182034 039 034 010 00
125730 1452N 07928W 8447 01547 0114 +137 +119 163035 038 037 016 00
125800 1452N 07927W 8417 01578 0115 +134 +117 167034 035 041 015 03
125830 1454N 07926W 8425 01568 0115 +135 +116 167035 038 /// /// 03
125900 1455N 07927W 8443 01549 0116 +131 +114 158032 036 045 024 03
125930 1457N 07928W 8417 01577 0111 +138 +112 172025 030 044 024 03
130000 1458N 07930W 8423 01567 0102 +147 +111 168035 037 045 013 00
130030 1459N 07931W 8435 01556 0107 +145 +111 164032 035 041 015 00
130100 1500N 07933W 8425 01567 0108 +140 +112 170026 029 040 018 00
130130 1501N 07934W 8429 01557 0110 +131 +112 167032 034 051 023 00
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#3565 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:09 am

Image
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#3566 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:10 am

Does anyone think the models will change any today with the rapid intensification going on now?
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#3567 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:12 am

Recon will catch the right front quadrant (RFQ) this time which is almost always the strongest part of the storm.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3568 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:12 am

Aren't we at D-max right now, Give it a few hours before we declare it Gilbert( not literally).
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#3569 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:14 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

BEAUTIFUL CU tower just blew up over the center as of the 1245Z image...what I would give to be in that plane right now...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3570 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:14 am

tailgater wrote:Aren't we at D-max right now, Give it a few hours before we declare it Gilbert( not literally).


Once it gets a core set up D-max and D-min become a very small source of creating convection.
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#3571 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:14 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 061310
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120806
130200 1503N 07935W 8431 01558 0109 +135 +112 165030 032 051 023 00
130230 1504N 07937W 8421 01572 0100 +154 +111 185035 037 039 011 00
130300 1505N 07938W 8429 01561 0094 +162 +113 188036 038 036 010 00
130330 1507N 07939W 8445 01545 0090 +167 +116 189030 034 034 006 00
130400 1508N 07941W 8429 01562 0093 +164 +120 186031 032 033 006 00
130430 1509N 07942W 8429 01558 0090 +163 +124 185032 032 032 006 00
130500 1511N 07943W 8431 01557 0087 +165 +127 185031 032 031 007 00
130530 1512N 07945W 8425 01560 0086 +163 +130 190030 031 029 008 00
130600 1513N 07946W 8431 01553 0090 +155 +132 189031 032 031 012 00
130630 1514N 07947W 8437 01549 0087 +163 +134 192025 030 031 011 00
130700 1516N 07949W 8431 01555 0084 +166 +134 197024 025 027 009 00
130730 1517N 07950W 8428 01555 0079 +170 +135 198024 024 027 008 00
130800 1518N 07951W 8430 01552 0077 +174 +135 194025 025 028 006 00
130830 1519N 07952W 8428 01555 0078 +169 +136 193025 026 028 006 00
130900 1519N 07952W 8428 01555 0079 +169 +137 196026 027 026 006 00
130930 1522N 07955W 8431 01551 0078 +169 +139 197027 028 027 006 00
131000 1523N 07956W 8429 01550 0075 +169 +139 195026 028 029 007 00
131030 1524N 07957W 8427 01550 0073 +168 +140 190026 027 029 008 03
131100 1526N 07958W 8430 01545 0068 +172 +140 188027 028 029 006 00
131130 1528N 07959W 8434 01541 0072 +167 +141 199027 028 030 007 00
$$
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Re:

#3572 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:17 am

'CaneFreak wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/vis0-lalo.jpg

BEAUTIFUL CU tower just blew up over the center as of the 1245Z image...what I would give to be in that plane right now...

What a beaut! :wink:
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3573 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:19 am

20120806 1145 15.5 80.5 T3.0/3.0 05L ERNESTO
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3574 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:19 am

Maintaining a number of overshooting tops even past D-MAX.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Ernie has finally go a heart beat and a better looking warm one at that.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208051947
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3575 Postby Zeno8 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:21 am

Awesome recovery!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3576 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:22 am

Actually wouldn't be surprised if this strengthens into a hurricane by 2pm.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3577 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:25 am

Wow - eyewall really building quickly

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html
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#3578 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:25 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 061321
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120806
131200 1529N 08000W 8425 01547 0079 +151 +140 201027 029 033 011 00
131230 1531N 08001W 8432 01536 0074 +153 +138 204033 034 032 007 00
131300 1532N 08002W 8438 01528 0062 +168 +136 202031 034 035 008 00
131330 1534N 08003W 8434 01532 0060 +166 +136 205031 033 029 009 00
131400 1535N 08004W 8420 01538 0054 +166 +136 206030 032 017 006 00
131430 1537N 08005W 8443 01511 0039 +181 +138 204030 037 024 007 00
131500 1538N 08006W 8427 01517 0017 +197 +140 223043 049 031 010 00
131530 1540N 08007W 8437 01488 0001 +187 +143 226051 053 036 008 00
131600 1541N 08008W 8422 01483 9974 +194 +146 236050 054 040 007 00
131630 1542N 08009W 8437 01452 9960 +194 +147 243023 045 029 005 03
131700 1544N 08010W 8481 01400 9945 +208 +150 286003 015 006 003 00
131730 1545N 08011W 8447 01437 9948 +206 +153 049017 020 022 003 00
131800 1546N 08012W 8477 01417 9968 +191 +158 053027 030 049 005 00
131830 1547N 08014W 8460 01457 9997 +169 +162 079044 061 057 016 00
131900 1549N 08015W 8485 01440 0022 +150 +150 072072 077 056 029 01
131930 1550N 08016W 8528 01416 0047 +150 +150 074055 071 063 038 05
132000 1551N 08018W 8477 01472 0051 +150 +150 076054 057 062 037 01
132030 1552N 08019W 8412 01545 0063 +140 +140 081053 057 059 030 01
132100 1554N 08020W 8439 01528 0068 +151 +143 076046 052 059 030 00
132130 1555N 08022W 8440 01527 0045 +195 +138 069043 046 047 009 00
$$
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#3579 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:25 am

77kt FL winds. Near or at hurricane strength. Special advisory should be imminent.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3580 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:26 am

132030 1552N 08019W 8412 01545 0063 +140 +140 081053 057 059 030 01
132100 1554N 08020W 8439 01528 0068 +151 +143 076046 052 059 030 00
132130 1555N 08022W 8440 01527 0045 +195 +138 069043 046 047 009 00
$$

59kts at the surface... unflagged
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