ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

77kt FL winds. Near or at hurricane strength. Special advisory should be imminent.

What would SW be?

[GCANE]

Very high rain-rate

Core is heating quickly

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.95pc.jpg

[RL3AO]

77kt FL winds. Near or at hurricane strength. Special advisory should be imminent.

What would SW be?

60 or 65kt. 850mb is usually an 80 to 85% reduction.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If a SA comes out, Ernie will probably be a hurricane then! Hello, RI!

[drezee]

Apologies AJC...you got it

[Chickenzilla]

Was there a center relocation?
This storm is really interesting. I hope it won't RI.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

yeah. Right on the border of hurricane intensity. I'd wager they go with 65kts.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Was there a center relocation?
This storm is really interesting. I hope it won't RI.

BTW, pressure is 994 and wind are at 75 at most.

[AJC3]

Apologies AJC...you got it

Not a problem...it seems like tropicalupdate.com has stopped updating so I can't post any graphics for now. I'm getting the HDOBs from the NHC site.

[tolakram]

I was using this for graphics: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Seemed to update the graphics in a timely manner. web based.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061330
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120806
132200 1556N 08023W 8443 01525 0051 +192 +137 073044 045 041 005 00
132230 1557N 08024W 8438 01533 0050 +197 +139 069043 045 040 001 00
132300 1559N 08026W 8429 01546 0061 +183 +143 074044 045 037 001 00
132330 1600N 08027W 8436 01541 0062 +185 +147 078045 047 034 002 00
132400 1601N 08028W 8436 01545 0071 +178 +151 081047 048 032 003 00
132430 1603N 08030W 8429 01552 0080 +164 +153 081048 050 031 002 00
132500 1604N 08031W 8430 01552 0085 +157 +154 089045 051 023 003 00
132530 1605N 08032W 8442 01544 0083 +164 +154 096041 043 027 002 00
132600 1607N 08034W 8425 01560 0084 +160 +153 096045 047 028 001 00
132630 1608N 08035W 8436 01551 0084 +168 +153 095044 048 025 001 00
132700 1609N 08037W 8430 01561 0080 +177 +152 091039 042 026 001 00
132730 1611N 08038W 8440 01551 0084 +172 +153 091037 043 024 002 00
132800 1612N 08039W 8430 01561 0087 +170 +154 092038 040 026 002 00
132830 1613N 08041W 8431 01562 0089 +168 +155 091036 038 025 002 00
132900 1615N 08042W 8428 01564 0091 +165 +156 089034 036 025 002 00
132930 1616N 08044W 8428 01564 0093 +163 +156 090035 037 025 003 00
133000 1617N 08045W 8432 01562 0097 +158 +156 089036 037 022 003 00
133030 1619N 08046W 8427 01566 0098 +155 +155 091036 038 024 003 00
133100 1620N 08048W 8432 01563 0101 +154 +153 091035 037 021 003 00
133130 1621N 08049W 8428 01568 0102 +153 +151 093033 034 022 001 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Recon shows the center has moved NW but we need a third pass before we can really get a sense of the motion.

[RL3AO]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 061329
XXAA 56138 99157 70802 04550 99994 26825 11512 00552 ///// /////
92637 24850 06506 85377 21656 03013 88999 77999
31313 09608 81317
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1574N08018W 1319 MBL WND 10512 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07
508 994845 WL150 11513 083 REL 1574N08018W 131720 SPG 1574N08018W
131909 =
XXBB 56138 99157 70802 04550 00994 26825 11960 24420 22921 24856
33850 21656 44845 /////
21212 00994 11512 11967 11514 22957 10510 33946 08511 44919 06505
55876 05004 66865 01010 77856 02012 88845 04014
31313 09608 81317
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1574N08018W 1319 MBL WND 10512 AEV 20802 DLM WND 07
508 994845 WL150 11513 083 REL 1574N08018W 131720 SPG 1574N08018W
131909 =

Center splash - 994mb/12kt

[HurricaneAndrew92]

When would SA been posted?

[JamesCaneTracker]

When would SA been posted?

Could be posted at any time!

[drezee]

XXBB 56138 99157 70802 04550 00994 26825

Drop measured 994 with a 25kt winds...maybe 991mb...

[AJC3]

[RL3AO]

When would SA been posted?

Three options

1. Making a full forecast package takes time.
2. They are communicating with goverments regarding new warnings.
3. They aren't going to issue a special.

3 is unlikely IMO. Probably a combo of the first two. I would assume they would have issued a TC update if they weren't in the process of creating a SA.

[AJC3]

I was using this for graphics: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Seemed to update the graphics in a timely manner. web based.

So was I. I think they had a hiccup. Notice the last graphic has a missing HDOB swath. Seems to be OK now.

[Stormlover2012]

nw movement could it be feeling the weakness?