ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

Alright ladies and gents, recon has taken the left turn. They are going to traverse the W side and take a SW to NE pass next. We will know the true strength of Ernesto prior to the 11am advisory. I would guess they are writing the advisory and will wait for this last past through the NE quad. The 77kt flight level and 59kt unflagged in the NW quad are impressive. The NHC needs this last pass for anouther data point. We will see soon...

['CaneFreak]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

For those with a question on track, taking a look at these steering layer analyses, I don't think there will be a significant change in the track today...significant meaning one that could threaten the US...looks like it will still head west or west northwest even if it rapidly intensifies if I am reading this correctly...

[CrazyC83]

Data supports a 60 kt intensity.

[AJC3]

[monicaei]

Historical question... Isn't this about the same spot Wilma was in when she exploded? (NOT comparing the two in anyway, just looking over some beginners info on RI)

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061400
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 32 20120806
135200 1647N 08135W 8429 01575 0111 +157 +147 071018 019 005 001 00
135230 1645N 08135W 8429 01575 0111 +159 +146 076020 021 004 001 00
135300 1644N 08136W 8430 01574 0110 +160 +145 073021 021 001 003 00
135330 1642N 08136W 8432 01573 0107 +160 +145 073020 021 003 001 00
135400 1640N 08136W 8429 01575 0107 +161 +145 063019 020 004 001 00
135430 1638N 08136W 8429 01575 0107 +162 +146 061020 021 003 001 00
135500 1637N 08137W 8434 01571 0108 +164 +146 062022 022 003 001 00
135530 1635N 08137W 8428 01578 0108 +165 +147 060022 023 002 001 00
135600 1633N 08137W 8430 01575 0108 +165 +148 064024 026 001 002 00
135630 1631N 08137W 8432 01574 0106 +165 +148 068024 025 001 001 00
135700 1630N 08138W 8433 01572 0104 +170 +149 063023 024 000 001 00
135730 1628N 08138W 8430 01574 0103 +170 +150 066024 024 001 002 00
135800 1626N 08138W 8430 01574 0101 +172 +151 063023 024 003 002 00
135830 1625N 08138W 8428 01577 0103 +168 +152 051021 023 002 002 00
135900 1623N 08138W 8430 01574 0107 +161 +152 045022 023 000 002 00
135930 1621N 08139W 8431 01574 0106 +164 +151 046022 023 000 002 00
140000 1619N 08139W 8429 01574 0108 +161 +149 062026 027 002 003 00
140030 1617N 08139W 8432 01572 0103 +167 +147 065026 026 002 002 00
140100 1616N 08139W 8426 01577 0101 +170 +146 061025 026 002 001 00
140130 1614N 08140W 8433 01569 0103 +166 +146 055023 025 004 001 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Historical question... Isn't this about the same spot Wilma was in when she exploded? (NOT comparing the two in anyway, just looking over some beginners info on RI)

Ernesto is much further south. This is more similar to the area where Hurricane Joan intensified.

[wxwatcher1999]

I'm am hearing talk he is already a little bit north of the last forecasted track

[Chickenzilla]

Historical question... Isn't this about the same spot Wilma was in when she exploded? (NOT comparing the two in anyway, just looking over some beginners info on RI)

IIRC, Wilma was more northwest.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what the official forecast will say. No point in putting a Special Advisory out when the scheduled is within the next hour. Could Ernesto become a major hurricane before landfall?

[tolakram]

Folks, please read.

As we get busier we need to stop the posting of one liners that add no value to the thread. Moderators will be deleting these types of messages without warning.

[crimi481]

Forecast discussion in Miami mentions there is a Mid -Low Trough over S.E. Fl coast ( wil move N.W. today)
May be part of the Fl Wave

Will Ernesto feel this weekness -go more NW itself?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Ntxw]

Wow, what a complete 180 change from last night. Looks like my call about CA landfall will be wrong given the strength he's gained. Kudos to those who stuck with it. NW Caribbean never fails to deliver!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Historical question... Isn't this about the same spot Wilma was in when she exploded? (NOT comparing the two in anyway, just looking over some beginners info on RI)

I think so...but for FL people here, nothing to worry about because even a US hit is very unlikely at this point. Probably won't reach Wimas intensity, but I do feel nervous for the Yucatan population.

[vbhoutex]

I'm am hearing talk he is already a little bit north of the last forecasted track

This could be true but is probably a a result of consolidation of the the core and a "relocation" of the center as Ernesto begins to intensify as opposed to being a turn. With his location it is doubtful that Ernesto will feel the weakness over the N GOM.

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:02 AM AST on August 06, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is undergoing significant strengthening, and is not far from hurricane strength, according to data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter mission. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to 997 mb at 8:13 am EDT, and had dropped another 3 mb to 994 mb at 9:17 am. Surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument had increased to 68 mph, and the plane found 89 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northwest side of the eye. A full eyewall surrounding a small 9-mile diameter eye had formed. Ernesto's forward speed has slowed down to 12 mph--just half of what it was 24 hours ago, and this has allowed the surface center to align itself with the circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. Visible satellite loops show that Ernesto's heaviest thunderstorms are now located near the center of the storm, and these thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is still battling moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. Water vapor satellite loops show dry air to the west, but the environment around Ernesto is the moistest we've seen since it entered the Caribbean. On Sunday, Ernesto brought 1.73" of rain to Kingston, Jamaica, and top sustained winds of 37 mph.

Forecast for Ernesto

Now that Ernesto has slowed down in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north, continued steady intensification appears likely. While wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range the next two days, Ernesto is over warm ocean waters of 28°C with very high heat content, and rapid intensification to a Category 2 hurricane is possible today. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts a 26% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds over a 24-hour period. The main obstacle to intensification will probably be proximity to land, as the center of Ernesto is likely to pass very close to the coast of Honduras late Monday night. This will put a portion of the storm's circulation over land, limiting intensification potential.

The winds this Monday morning at Puerto Lempira on the northeast coast of Honduras have not yet begun to increase, but will begin to rise this afternoon and peak near midnight tonight. High winds and heavy rains will spread westwards along the coast of Honduras early Tuesday morning, and reach coastal Belize near 2 pm Tuesday. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast Thursday night south of Veracruz. However, most of the computer models predict that Ernesto will pop out so far south in the Bay of Campeche that the storm will have less than 24 hours over water. This makes significant re-intensification unlikely. I don't expect rain from Ernesto will get as far north as Brownsville, Texas.

[AJC3]

[tolakram]

Latest visible

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061410
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120806
140200 1612N 08140W 8434 01569 0102 +168 +147 054023 023 004 002 00
140230 1610N 08140W 8429 01575 0102 +166 +147 046023 023 005 002 00
140300 1609N 08140W 8430 01573 0102 +169 +148 047024 025 003 002 00
140330 1607N 08141W 8433 01571 0102 +168 +149 048025 026 004 002 00
140400 1605N 08141W 8432 01571 0102 +169 +151 048026 027 003 001 00
140430 1603N 08141W 8430 01572 0101 +166 +152 048025 026 002 001 00
140500 1601N 08141W 8429 01573 0099 +170 +152 047024 024 010 001 00
140530 1600N 08142W 8434 01567 0097 +174 +153 045025 025 012 001 00
140600 1558N 08142W 8429 01573 0096 +175 +153 043024 025 014 000 00
140630 1556N 08142W 8432 01570 0097 +172 +154 044024 025 014 001 00
140700 1554N 08142W 8428 01574 0095 +175 +155 043026 026 012 001 00
140730 1552N 08143W 8432 01570 0096 +175 +156 045024 026 012 001 00
140800 1551N 08143W 8430 01572 0095 +175 +157 047022 024 010 001 03
140830 1549N 08142W 8429 01574 0094 +176 +157 050021 022 020 000 03
140900 1549N 08140W 8433 01567 0092 +178 +159 051021 023 017 002 00
140930 1549N 08139W 8431 01570 0093 +176 +160 050021 023 020 001 00
141000 1549N 08137W 8429 01570 0096 +169 +161 057021 022 021 001 00
141030 1549N 08136W 8430 01569 0098 +165 +161 059021 021 022 001 00
141100 1549N 08134W 8431 01566 0095 +166 +160 063021 021 021 001 00
141130 1549N 08133W 8432 01566 0094 +167 +159 064021 021 018 002 00
$$
;

Headed in for the next pass...

[GCANE]

Cirrus canopy building in altitude after each of the overshooting tops fires.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html