Let's see how this guy behaves, hopefully as cycloneye said, it's gonna weaken or at least won't cause too much troubles. We will keep everybody updated.Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Let's see how this guy behaves, hopefully as cycloneye said, it's gonna weaken or at least won't cause too much troubles. We will keep everybody updated.
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If wunderground.com's track map is showing the lastest models the HWRF model is showing a very similar track to TS Matthrew sept last year http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Matth ... _track.png now although pretty minimal and made landfall at monkey river just south of Placencia Peninsula, ALLOT of piers were trashed along the peninsula, the normally calm placencia point because only SW winds normally affect this bay had rolling 10+ft waves. So until I see him actually turn and accelerate fast to the North will watch him closely. And right now on the wundermap if you zoom in real close to coastline and look at the HWRF plot the peninsula is like 10miles north of that line. Deja vu. Dont even need a depression or TS storm it seems these days to disrupt . We had a freak storm come though mid june which cause section of road to wash out (apparently culvert collapse due to the stream that normally feeds it becoming a river, that section of road was only built 10 yrs ago) and these things always happen on weekend when those departments dont work.
and yeah I do hope Ernesto ends up being minimal (small and tight) and goes North of my location cos I was supposed to go out for nice dinner at nice restaurant for a change, this year. will keep you posted I figure depending on the 10amEST advisory will be when BZ Gov & BZ Met decides if they will issue watch yet or wait, its not unheard of for them to leave it to 24hrs after some said they called wolf a few times when senarios on models didnt pan out. Remember our met dept swears by GFS model and the BZ Met was spot on where they believed landfall for TS Richard would be in the end.
and yeah I do hope Ernesto ends up being minimal (small and tight) and goes North of my location cos I was supposed to go out for nice dinner at nice restaurant for a change, this year. will keep you posted I figure depending on the 10amEST advisory will be when BZ Gov & BZ Met decides if they will issue watch yet or wait, its not unheard of for them to leave it to 24hrs after some said they called wolf a few times when senarios on models didnt pan out. Remember our met dept swears by GFS model and the BZ Met was spot on where they believed landfall for TS Richard would be in the end.
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this evenings weather discussion from BZ Met
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DATE: SUNDAY 5TH AUGUST 2012 (EVENING)
MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILED ACORSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE SEA TO THE NORTHEAST BEYOND 200KM AFTER 02Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 00Z SHOWED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 15.4N/79.6W, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE N'RN GULF OF MEXIC AND THE SE CONUS. A THERMAL LOW WAS OVER CNTRL MEXICO AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIMIC TPW IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW JUST EAST OF BELIZE TO ABOUT 83W. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT OVER AND JUST EAST OF BELIZE. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND DRY AIR IS WEST OF 81W TO THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE.
THE GFS FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TO PASS JUST NORTH NE HONDURAS AND MOVE INTO N'RN BELIZE TUESDAY EVENING / NIGHT(WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE NHC FORECAST), WHILE THE NAM TAKES ERNESTO OVER NE HONDURAS AND INTO CNTRL BELIZE. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS, WHILE THE NGP TAKES THE STORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. THE MODELS ALL GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THE RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALL INCREASE OVER BELIZE TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TOMORROW, WITH POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, OR EVEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS, BY TUESDAY EVENING / NIGHT.
FORECAST: MAINLY FAIR TONIGHT WITH THE CHACE OF ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING. CLOUDY AT TIMES TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST; WITH SHOWERS INCREASING EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS BECOMING WINDY.
MARINE: EAST-NORTHEAST 5-15KTS. CHOPPY. 3-4FT.
FORECASTER: RUDON
so looks like will landfall day before my b'day now, but no like the lastest track from NHS with hurricane landfall on border Belize/chetumal (MX). Any kind of strong winds and rain will destroy grain crops that will be ready to harvest next month, not to mention fruit trees like Papaya.
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DATE: SUNDAY 5TH AUGUST 2012 (EVENING)
MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILED ACORSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE SEA TO THE NORTHEAST BEYOND 200KM AFTER 02Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 00Z SHOWED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 15.4N/79.6W, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE N'RN GULF OF MEXIC AND THE SE CONUS. A THERMAL LOW WAS OVER CNTRL MEXICO AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIMIC TPW IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW JUST EAST OF BELIZE TO ABOUT 83W. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT OVER AND JUST EAST OF BELIZE. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND DRY AIR IS WEST OF 81W TO THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE.
THE GFS FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TO PASS JUST NORTH NE HONDURAS AND MOVE INTO N'RN BELIZE TUESDAY EVENING / NIGHT(WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE NHC FORECAST), WHILE THE NAM TAKES ERNESTO OVER NE HONDURAS AND INTO CNTRL BELIZE. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS, WHILE THE NGP TAKES THE STORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. THE MODELS ALL GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THE RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALL INCREASE OVER BELIZE TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TOMORROW, WITH POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, OR EVEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS, BY TUESDAY EVENING / NIGHT.
FORECAST: MAINLY FAIR TONIGHT WITH THE CHACE OF ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING. CLOUDY AT TIMES TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST; WITH SHOWERS INCREASING EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS BECOMING WINDY.
MARINE: EAST-NORTHEAST 5-15KTS. CHOPPY. 3-4FT.
FORECASTER: RUDON
so looks like will landfall day before my b'day now, but no like the lastest track from NHS with hurricane landfall on border Belize/chetumal (MX). Any kind of strong winds and rain will destroy grain crops that will be ready to harvest next month, not to mention fruit trees like Papaya.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Hi my carib friends 
BZSTORM looks like Ernesto continue its progress and should cross north of the coast of Honduras.
619
WTNT35 KNHC 060841
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
BZSTORM looks like Ernesto continue its progress and should cross north of the coast of Honduras.619
WTNT35 KNHC 060841
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the latest on Florence...
023
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012
...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2590 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
023
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012
...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2590 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148988
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. BZSTORM,now things are turning more serious as a Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of the Yucatan.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148988
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 6 2012
UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA THU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK HOT WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER STRONG UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
RETROGRADING TUTT FROM THE EAST. TUE NIGHT OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH TUTT AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF PR. IN
ADDITION...WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW OF
FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE EITHER.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER 2012 DEFINED AS THE MONTHS OF JJA
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 84.6F. THE
WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 85.1F.
AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
THIRD DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 1.35 INCHES OF
RAIN MEASURED SO FAR. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WHEN
ONLY 3.65 INCHES OF RAIN WERE MEASURED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 20 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 0 20 20 70
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 6 2012
UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA THU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK HOT WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER STRONG UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
RETROGRADING TUTT FROM THE EAST. TUE NIGHT OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH TUTT AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF PR. IN
ADDITION...WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW OF
FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE EITHER.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER 2012 DEFINED AS THE MONTHS OF JJA
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 84.6F. THE
WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 85.1F.
AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
THIRD DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 1.35 INCHES OF
RAIN MEASURED SO FAR. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WHEN
ONLY 3.65 INCHES OF RAIN WERE MEASURED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 20 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 0 20 20 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
cycloneye wrote:Good morning. BZSTORM,now things are turning more serious as a Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of the Yucatan.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
As I sadi last night BZ always WAITS to last possible minute so I expect in the next hour for Belize to issue some kind of watch warning (7.30am is our morning News/weather update more people listening to radio), BZ Met hasnt updated their forecast dscussion on website (which is normally 6am our time) so my guess is NEMO is in session and they are waiting for the recon data from Hurr Hunter and latest NHS path. The rest of us who watch are already making plans and today will be one busy day.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Bryan Norcrosss just posted this on FB:
" Ernesto is much better organized this morning, and is apparently going through a strengthening process. The pressure is down to at least 997 mb, and likely a bit lower, a big drop from the 1004/1006 yesterday. If it had continued straight on, it would have come very close to the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, which would likely keep it on the weak side. But this reorganization looks to have jogged it a bit north, which may give it a bigger window to strengthen more before it gets to Belize/Mexico. The water is warmer and the winds are less affected by land away from the coast. Hurricane strength is looking like a higher possibility before it comes ashore on the Yucatan. Still no change in thinking concerning the U.S. Ernesto should stay well south."
So be careful over there, people!
" Ernesto is much better organized this morning, and is apparently going through a strengthening process. The pressure is down to at least 997 mb, and likely a bit lower, a big drop from the 1004/1006 yesterday. If it had continued straight on, it would have come very close to the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, which would likely keep it on the weak side. But this reorganization looks to have jogged it a bit north, which may give it a bigger window to strengthen more before it gets to Belize/Mexico. The water is warmer and the winds are less affected by land away from the coast. Hurricane strength is looking like a higher possibility before it comes ashore on the Yucatan. Still no change in thinking concerning the U.S. Ernesto should stay well south."
So be careful over there, people!
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Too many hurricanes to remember
I just tuned into the local radio and sounds like the entire coast of belize is on TS warning, I missed the news and so its the call in chat section of show which can be a lil confusing sometimes, I guess this will be announced in the next advisory from NHC.
Luis or anyone else on here can you post the latest model runs graphic when they come in pls. Coing to be doing allot of runnig around to do today so will be checking in periodically.
Luis or anyone else on here can you post the latest model runs graphic when they come in pls. Coing to be doing allot of runnig around to do today so will be checking in periodically.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
BZSTORM wrote:I just tuned into the local radio and sounds like the entire coast of belize is on TS warning, I missed the news and so its the call in chat section of show which can be a lil confusing sometimes, I guess this will be announced in the next advisory from NHC.
Luis or anyone else on here can you post the latest model runs graphic when they come in pls. Coing to be doing allot of runnig around to do today so will be checking in periodically.
Latest model tracks.
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:BZSTORM wrote:I just tuned into the local radio and sounds like the entire coast of belize is on TS warning, I missed the news and so its the call in chat section of show which can be a lil confusing sometimes, I guess this will be announced in the next advisory from NHC.
Luis or anyone else on here can you post the latest model runs graphic when they come in pls. Coing to be doing allot of runnig around to do today so will be checking in periodically.
Latest model tracks.
thanks Luis do these include the latest recon data or will that show up in later day? looks like all models agree now for a border BZ/MX yucatan solution???
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
This afternoon's models will have the recon data.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
BZSTORM now a Hurricane Warning
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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Once its above 16.4 N I will breath a bit easier for my home but have bad feeling about Ernesto where ever he ends up, now waiting with baited breath for the 2pm EST advisory. Unfortuantly I have a baby animal nursing and cant go out to village for any supplies until after noon BZ time anyway. Every year I sound like a stuck record saying I cant believe that storms coming this way are coming earlier and earlier
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Lightning and thunder woke me from my slumberI'm glad Ernesto isn't looking to great right now. The rain and lightning and thunder I can deal with but nothing more so keep weak my friend and quickly pass on by
how are conditions there caribwxgirl?
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South Texas Storms
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Re:
BZSTORM wrote:Once its above 16.4 N I will breath a bit easier for my home but have bad feeling about Ernesto where ever he ends up, now waiting with baited breath for the 2pm EST advisory. Unfortuantly I have a baby animal nursing and cant go out to village for any supplies until after noon BZ time anyway. Every year I sound like a stuck record saying I cant believe that storms coming this way are coming earlier and earlier
Stay safe down there BZSTORM!
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