ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[JamesCaneTracker]

Whoa...did recon did find 67kt winds...hurricane? I am confused. Sorry, not sure if this is bad cause it's kinda short.

Recon found 77kt winds in the Northwest Quad last pass. Thats flight level winds though so Surface winds would be below that.

[Portastorm]

Does anyone think the models will change any today with the rapid intensification going on now?

Nope ... Ernesto is behaving as the GFS/Euro have depicted. And technically, "rapid intensification" is not occuring yet. Ernesto is getting better organized and strengthening but the RI phrase gets thrown around here way too much. RI is a 42mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. That roughly would mean that Ernesto would have to have a minimum pressure of around 960mb by tomorrow morning.

[lester]

Whoa...did recon did find 67kt winds...hurricane? I am confused. Sorry, not sure if this is bad cause it's kinda short.

sfmr, but those aren't always reliable, especially with high rain rates

[GCANE]

Core is tightening up fast

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208060824

['CaneFreak]

At 850 mb...yes...but there is a reduction factor of 80 to 85%...

Whoa...did recon did find 67kt winds...hurricane? I am confused. Sorry, not sure if this is bad cause it's kinda short.

[CrazyC83]

That 67 kt SFMR report didn't look rain-contaminated to me. It might be a good case to jump to Hurricane Ernesto? But we still have to see at least one more pass.

[climaguy]

That 67 kt SFMR report didn't look rain-contaminated to me. It might be a good case to jump to Hurricane Ernesto? But we still have to see at least one more pass.

0.5 in/hr rain rate and the flight level was a good 25kts lower. I'm dubious of that SFMR.

[Zeno8]

Thats pretty good wobble to NW - based on NHC forecast point
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

Sorry - NNW jog

I agree that mid low florida trough you mentioned is influencing ernesto.

[HurricaneBelle]

Below is a Joe Bastardi Tweet...Link: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell holds with idea. think this is 990 mb with recon winds to hurricane force first landfall.Comeback starts tomorrow

Credit to Bastardi where it's due for nailing this yesterday.

[AJC3]

Next set of obs will hit it....

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061440
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120806
143200 1553N 08029W 8423 01478 9985 +175 +156 036031 040 067 016 00
143230 1553N 08027W 8435 01467 9968 +201 +153 056029 031 062 010 00
143300 1553N 08026W 8422 01477 9965 +201 +151 082020 029 029 003 03
143330 1552N 08025W 8429 01468 9973 +187 +153 153022 027 040 002 03
143400 1552N 08023W 8425 01489 9995 +175 +156 170034 039 045 005 03
143430 1552N 08021W 8425 01500 0012 +167 +159 179041 041 /// /// 03
143500 1551N 08022W 8430 01494 0008 +170 +160 192038 041 044 006 00
143530 1551N 08023W 8431 01484 0001 +166 +161 196035 038 044 002 00
143600 1550N 08024W 8429 01480 9988 +178 +160 204023 032 039 006 03
143630 1551N 08026W 8434 01467 9970 +196 +158 230003 017 036 001 00
143700 1551N 08028W 8439 01465 9968 +203 +158 016018 023 023 007 00
143730 1551N 08029W 8419 01496 9987 +192 +159 013031 038 053 012 00
143800 1552N 08031W 8436 01489 9986 +212 +158 002040 043 057 012 03
143830 1553N 08031W 8417 01510 9983 +216 +157 016040 043 /// /// 03
143900 1553N 08029W 8433 01483 0008 +150 +150 023031 043 057 018 01
143930 1553N 08028W 8442 01467 9973 +206 +157 054021 024 037 011 00
144000 1553N 08026W 8424 01478 9970 +197 +155 116021 026 041 003 00
144030 1553N 08025W 8429 01479 9986 +182 +156 150033 037 048 004 03
144100 1553N 08023W 8428 01491 0010 +164 +157 170043 048 049 004 00
144130 1553N 08022W 8421 01513 0026 +164 +158 175050 051 050 005 00
$$

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Next set of obs will hit it...should know whether it's hurricane Ernesto or not in a few. I personally, think this is a hurricane, but I am an amateur and should not be taken seriously.

[cycloneye]

They didn't found the center?

[lester]

Might've missed the center

['CaneFreak]

You beat me to it I think they missed it to the north.

They didn't found the center?

[RL3AO]

Yeah think they missed it a bit.

[CrazyC83]

Center missed by the last set of obs it appears? Since the SFMR was consistently around 40 kt. The pressure was likely 993 (997 lowest, drop 4 for winds).

[tolakram]

Hopefully they will loop, as in the previous passes. I have no concept of how easy or hard that is to do in a strengthening storm.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Center missed by the last set of obs it appears? Since the SFMR was consistently around 40 kt. The pressure was likely 993 (997 lowest, drop 4 for winds).

So if this is true, we have a hurricane on our hands, it seems?

[Sanibel]

I'm really missing the NASA GHCC zoom frames that would particularly impressive right now if the site wasn't down.


Looks like Recon hit the center. 996 at steady pressure.


If that is the center NW track is confirmed!