ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

I have a question though, does the CPC use the SOI's readings in any of it's forecasts and updates?

Don't believe so. SOI is more indicative of weather patterns in the west and central south Pacific. CPC uses temp anomalies of the equatorial Pacific waters. Short term SOI can have an erratic reading even during stable enso events due to local weather at either Darwin or Tahiti. Long term SOI is better used to see what kind of atmospheric reactions to the ENSO state.

[South Texas Storms]

To add with modeling, medium-long range models hint at a crash in Tahiti pressures sometime mid August. If this is true we may see some impressive long term dips in the SOI here in the coming weeks.

Which models are showing this Ntxw? I read a tweet from Joe Bastardi showing a long range model indicating crashing SOI's in Tahiti in mid August, but it didn't say what model it was.

[Ntxw]

Which models are showing this Ntxw? I read a tweet from Joe Bastardi showing a long range model indicating crashing SOI's in Tahiti in mid August, but it didn't say what model it was.

I'm not sure where he is getting his info, probably privately. I was looking at mslp from GFS and Euro they don't give exact detailed pressures like what he shows but you can see in the longer range HP dominates Australia once again which usually translates to lower pressures over Tahiti for a long stretch.

[South Texas Storms]

Which models are showing this Ntxw? I read a tweet from Joe Bastardi showing a long range model indicating crashing SOI's in Tahiti in mid August, but it didn't say what model it was.

I'm not sure where he is getting his info, probably privately. I was looking at mslp from GFS and Euro they don't give exact detailed pressures like what he shows but you can see in the longer range HP dominates Australia once again which usually translates to lower pressures over Tahiti for a long stretch.

Here is the link to his tweet: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 84/photo/1
Can you tell what model that is?

[Ntxw]

Here is the link to his tweet: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 84/photo/1
Can you tell what model that is?

That is interesting. Sorry to say I have no idea where he got it from. Don't think any models besides CFS that goes beyond 16 days. Must be a private service thing. It is very far out though, should stick to within 1-2 weeks.

[euro6208]

the daily soi keeps falling, now -36.48..30 day average is at -0.86...



it looks like el nino might come sooner based on the mjo which is expected to return to the maritime continent after leaving the pacific...more warming?

[SoupBone]

"the daily soi keeps falling, now -36.48..30 day average is at -0.86..."

Yeah, I can't wait to see how low it gets this go around.

[cycloneye]

This is a very interesting paper by CSU Phil Klotzbach about ENSO,the Madden Julian Occilation and Atlantic Basin Rapid Cyclone Intensification.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... ch2012.pdf

[Ntxw]

Great find Cycloneye. I do believe the MJO and Kelvin waves play a large role that is not fully understood in tropical cyclone intensity/formations. SST's every season is plenty warm to fuel monsters and we have advanced pretty well in track of systems overall. But storm intensity is still a problem and I do believe in the future the MJO is a good place to start.

Warming continued this week for 3.4 and 4 regions. Not sure if it's enough to raise ENSO next monday but it should at least hold steady.

[Ntxw]

MJO going into very favorable position of phases 7/8/1 for ENSO warming kelvin waves. If not next week then the week after look for some signification increases in anomalies.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[cycloneye]

MJO going into very favorable position of phases 7/8/1 for ENSO warming kelvin waves. If not next week then the week after look for some signification increases in anomalies.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

The Monthly August update will be released next Thursday the 9th. Will CPC pull the trigger and declare El Nino officially,or they wait another month?

[Ntxw]

The Monthly August update will be released next Thursday the 9th. Will CPC pull the trigger and declare El Nino officially,or they wait another month?

I don't think they will pull the trigger just yet, maybe in Sept and for sure Oct. Next thurs will probably give out ONI values for the MJJ period which I think will be somewhere between 0.2 to 0.4. It is the Sept update when JJA comes out which may come very close if not there IMO. May had some cooling which is why we probably won't get it yet. However this does not mean El Nino conditions won't be in place later this month, in fact I think they will be.

[SoupBone]

So this is interesting. We had a good tanking for a few days, but it has really backed off and today is only at -1.88. Thoughts?

[South Texas Storms]

So this is interesting. We had a good tanking for a few days, but it has really backed off and today is only at -1.88. Thoughts?

Yeah the models have been showing this happening. Pressures in Tahiti will probably be high for the next few days so the SOI will probably be positive. Some long range models are showing the pressure in Tahiti to lower quite a bit in a few weeks. If this happens, then the SOI could tank.

[Ntxw]

3.4 is unchanged this week, with 4 and 3 battling it out. Does seem like 1-2 is weakening and this could be transitioning into a central/west Nino.

[cycloneye]

3.4 is unchanged this week, with 4 and 3 battling it out. Does seem like 1-2 is weakening and this could be transitioning into a central/west Nino.

Here is the Climate Prediction Center weekly update. Maybe a modoki el Nino like in 2004?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Here is the Climate Prediction Center weekly update. Maybe a modoki el Nino like in 2004?

I'm not too familiar on the types of El Ninos. I know one of our members, Ptarmigan made a post and has better info on what signifies a modoki. Though 2004 isn't a good example because while it was ramping up 1+2 regions that year were La Nina like. Our current Nino (in terms of evolution) resembles 2002 and 2009 which were central based Ninos.

[Portastorm]

I was kind of wondering the same thing myself ... just what, exactly, is a "modoki" El Nino? (I know, I know ... "look it up!")

[Hurricaneman]

I was kind of wondering the same thing myself ... just what, exactly, is a "modoki" El Nino? (I know, I know ... "look it up!")

Its when the ENSO 1-2 region is Neutral or below normal while ENSO 3-4 is in El Nino conditions, hope that helps

[Ntxw]

Yup, Modoki El Nino is when Central basin is warm while cold anomalies exist on either side (east or west but usually east). Usually the ones that favor hurricane season is when 1+2 is La Nina numbers during the season. Traditional El Nino, i.e. 1997, basin wide is warm with hottest waters in the East Pacific (1+2, and 3)