ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

Even Rapid Intensification probably wouldn't propel it North, it's to far West at this point...had it occurred 24 hours sooner then it might. It's kind of like the mens road race in the Olympics, the british bikers were favored to win but they waited to long to sprint to the front...hence they lost. Anyway this is all my opinion, but thats what I'm thinking.

There is no correlation of location and when it would turn. You never will know if something happens in the dynamics that will cause a storm to move all of a sudden North, South or what ever.

However from watching storms for almost all of my 35 years of my life, I have seen when a storm slows down there is a good chance there will be a change in direction if not even a stall while it figures out what happens.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061510
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120806
150200 1551N 07923W 8428 01577 0132 +125 +120 147054 055 043 022 00
150230 1551N 07922W 8430 01572 0133 +123 +119 143053 056 043 020 00
150300 1551N 07920W 8435 01570 0137 +121 +118 139059 060 039 017 00
150330 1551N 07919W 8426 01580 0132 +131 +114 139057 059 036 016 00
150400 1551N 07918W 8430 01577 0126 +139 +111 140055 057 035 012 00
150430 1551N 07916W 8410 01595 0129 +138 +110 152045 052 035 016 00
150500 1551N 07915W 8454 01551 0128 +139 +113 146050 051 036 013 03
150530 1552N 07914W 8424 01585 0129 +140 +114 138050 052 035 010 00
150600 1554N 07914W 8432 01578 0125 +146 +116 139055 057 035 010 00
150630 1556N 07914W 8433 01575 0127 +144 +116 137050 055 032 008 00
150700 1558N 07914W 8416 01595 0132 +138 +117 139046 052 034 010 00
150730 1600N 07914W 8445 01564 0124 +150 +119 139053 054 034 010 00
150800 1602N 07914W 8435 01578 0126 +147 +120 141054 055 033 008 00
150830 1604N 07914W 8429 01580 0125 +147 +120 140055 055 032 007 00
150900 1606N 07914W 8428 01581 0122 +154 +119 137057 058 033 007 00
150930 1608N 07914W 8429 01581 0126 +148 +118 139054 056 034 006 00
151000 1610N 07914W 8432 01581 0129 +146 +118 141053 054 035 007 00
151030 1612N 07914W 8428 01585 0124 +154 +118 141054 055 034 008 00
151100 1614N 07914W 8431 01584 0124 +158 +118 142052 055 033 006 00
151130 1615N 07914W 8435 01580 0128 +155 +120 142049 050 034 004 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

If he becomes a Major Hurricane he could cause strong enough height falls and feel the weakness and turn more northerly, but I doubt that happens.

[Blinhart]

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

I think that was pretty much answered in the TCD, although I suppose there could be a little more poleward movement than forecast if Ernesto was to overachieve w/r/t the intensity forecast.

"ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

But doesn't answer what effect the ULL will have on Ernie, and what happens if the ridge weakens more than the guidance shows????

[AJC3]

['CaneFreak]

One thing is for sure...the wind field is definitely expanding right now. They have been in TS force winds for quite a while. But then again, they are in the stronger quadrant right now too.

['CaneFreak]

I also answered your question above. The answer is that the system will have to be deeper than it is currently for the ULL to have much effect on the system.

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

I think that was pretty much answered in the TCD, although I suppose there could be a little more poleward movement than forecast if Ernesto was to overachieve w/r/t the intensity forecast.

"ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

But doesn't answer what effect the ULL will have on Ernie, and what happens if the ridge weakens more than the guidance shows????

[Blinhart]

And to think yesterday (all day) people were writing Ernie off, and now we are talking about Ernie becoming a hurricane at anytime. Just goes to show if Ernie would of slowed down a little sooner, we have no idea how big he could of gotten, if he would of slowed down Saturday when he had such a beautiful radar presentation we could be talking about a huge Major Hurricane, but instead we are talking about a strengthen Tropical Storm. Just goes to show you anything can happen in the tropics.

[AJC3]

Question to all the pro-mets. Now that Ernie has decided to get his act together and slow down in forward speed, and is steadily intensifying. What are the chances of Ernie feeling the weakness of the ridge to his north, and what kind of effect will the ULL over the Western GOM have on Ernie?

My thought was that he would go to the East side of the ULL until he got to the North of the ULL

I think that was pretty much answered in the TCD, although I suppose there could be a little more poleward movement than forecast if Ernesto was to overachieve w/r/t the intensity forecast.

"ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

But doesn't answer what effect the ULL will have on Ernie, and what happens if the ridge weakens more than the guidance shows????

Easy on the question marks, please.

IIRC the 00Z model data, that upper low doesn't have too much of a reflection at 500 MB, so it shouldn't impart much influence on Ernesto. Of course, IF the ridge weakens more than forecast then the storm would move more poleward than forecast. Of course, IF the eastern CONUS trough dug all the way south into the GOMEX in 2 days then the storm would turn due north. You can if if if all day. The point here is the model guidance is not suggesting that any of these if's will take place.

[Blinhart]

Ok that explanation I understand, the other one I didn't understand. So CaneFreak you don't think Ernesto isn't going to get any deeper? Also what would you consider to be deep enough for him to feel the effect of the ULL?

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061520
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120806
151200 1617N 07914W 8428 01589 0127 +156 +122 140050 050 033 004 00
151230 1619N 07914W 8433 01583 0129 +153 +124 140051 051 035 004 00
151300 1621N 07914W 8430 01588 0128 +155 +126 140053 054 035 005 00
151330 1623N 07915W 8429 01589 0131 +151 +127 139051 053 035 007 00
151400 1625N 07915W 8430 01586 0132 +148 +128 138051 052 036 007 00
151430 1627N 07915W 8437 01580 0136 +141 +129 137050 051 037 008 00
151500 1629N 07915W 8429 01586 0133 +145 +129 138051 052 036 009 00
151530 1631N 07915W 8430 01588 0130 +153 +128 138052 053 037 007 00
151600 1633N 07915W 8428 01591 0133 +151 +126 140053 053 037 007 00
151630 1635N 07915W 8433 01589 0135 +150 +126 139050 053 036 009 00
151700 1637N 07915W 8429 01592 0136 +150 +126 138048 050 036 006 00
151730 1639N 07915W 8430 01591 0133 +153 +127 138046 047 036 007 00
151800 1641N 07915W 8429 01591 0130 +157 +127 139047 047 035 007 00
151830 1643N 07915W 8429 01591 0131 +160 +128 140048 049 035 006 00
151900 1645N 07915W 8428 01594 0131 +160 +128 138048 049 034 006 00
151930 1647N 07915W 8429 01594 0132 +160 +129 135049 050 034 005 00
152000 1649N 07915W 8430 01592 0129 +162 +130 135050 050 035 003 00
152030 1650N 07915W 8433 01590 0133 +160 +132 135050 051 034 003 00
152100 1652N 07915W 8429 01596 0133 +160 +134 135047 049 035 002 00
152130 1654N 07915W 8429 01596 0134 +160 +135 134048 048 035 002 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

[wxwatcher1999]

When do the next model runs come out?

[FutureEM]

SMN MM5 0hr +72
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/cartas/mm5/p01d10025.gif

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061531
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120806
152200 1656N 07915W 8432 01594 0135 +158 +136 135050 052 033 003 00
152230 1658N 07915W 8433 01594 0138 +155 +137 129051 053 036 005 00
152300 1700N 07915W 8430 01596 0136 +158 +138 123048 049 035 005 00
152330 1702N 07915W 8429 01599 0137 +157 +138 123045 047 035 005 00
152400 1704N 07915W 8429 01599 0139 +155 +139 126045 045 036 005 00
152430 1706N 07915W 8432 01596 0137 +158 +138 131046 047 035 005 00
152500 1707N 07915W 8426 01602 0143 +150 +138 134049 049 035 009 00
152530 1709N 07915W 8436 01592 0152 +139 +137 131048 049 035 008 00
152600 1711N 07915W 8425 01605 0144 +151 +134 131045 048 034 008 00
152630 1713N 07916W 8431 01599 0145 +152 +131 129046 047 034 007 03
152700 1714N 07917W 8430 01599 0140 +160 +130 127045 045 /// /// 03
152730 1712N 07918W 8434 01595 0138 +160 +131 127044 045 032 003 00
152800 1711N 07920W 8428 01601 0139 +160 +132 125042 045 033 004 00
152830 1710N 07921W 8432 01596 0142 +151 +134 122038 040 033 006 00
152900 1709N 07922W 8433 01595 0148 +141 +135 121042 048 034 005 00
152930 1708N 07923W 8427 01600 0138 +158 +134 125047 049 034 005 00
153000 1706N 07924W 8433 01594 0139 +153 +133 127050 051 033 004 00
153030 1705N 07926W 8429 01595 0136 +155 +133 127049 051 034 002 00
153100 1704N 07927W 8433 01590 0136 +155 +133 129050 050 034 003 00
153130 1703N 07928W 8430 01594 0134 +157 +134 132049 050 035 003 00
$$
;

Headed back SW for another center pass...

['CaneFreak]

I didn't say that he wouldn't get any deeper. I said I didn't think he would get deep enough for him to be affected by the ULL. Take a look at these steering charts that I posted way back.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

Currently, as ACJ3 posted, the storm is only deep enough to be steered by the 500-850 mb flow (very shallow). However, as you go higher up in the atmosphere, this obviously changes. See so for yourself. Take a look at the top of this image and click around and you will get the feel for what we are talking about. Use the pressure ranges as a guide.

Ok that explanation I understand, the other one I didn't understand. So CaneFreak you don't think Ernesto isn't going to get any deeper? Also what would you consider to be deep enough for him to feel the effect of the ULL?

[wxwatcher1999]

SMN MM5 0hr +72
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/cartas/mm5/p01d10025.gif

What model is that?

[Sanibel]

Tops are warming. Curvature is still good and appears to be tightening.

['CaneFreak]

An operational mesoscale model that is still undergoing improvements and should probably not be used for forecasting TC development. Use at your own risk.

SMN MM5 0hr +72
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/cartas/mm5/p01d10025.gif

What model is that?

[FutureEM]

SMN MM5 0hr +72


What model is that?

MM5/NCAR 0z