Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

I wish everybody on page 202 had used static images to show the global model runs last week. Ernesto kind of surprised everybody by popping up and I'd like to see which models detected it and when they first did so. As for Florence, I know none of the globals saw that one coming.

You got to check page 200. I downloaded those GFS and ECMWF graphics when both began to show what would be Ernesto. I agree about posting graphics without saving them. We encourage the members to save the graphics with imageshack.us,tinypic etc.

[somethingfunny]

Well well, lots to talk about on today's 0z, 6z, and 12z GFS runs. Absolutely nothing to talk about on the 12z Euro and 12z CMC, or the 0z Euro and 0z CMC.

Of note in today's entire 12z loop, which I won't post each frame for, Ernesto sinks into Mexico in the BOC and dies as expected, Florence no longer regenerates, and what I assume will be named Gordon continues to be heavily advertised by the GFS as a Cape Verde long-tracked major hurricane.

Here is the 240 hour frame: (Wednesday, August 15th)



Is that a tropical cyclone spinning up in the Bay of Campeche? Possibly. It seems to track similarly to 2010's Hermine, but we'll see if the feature keeps showing up consistently and how strong it appears to be. Gordon gets much closer to the islands than it did on the 0z or 6z runs. 288 hour frame: (Friday, August 17th)



And at the 384 hour aka la-la-land frame, Cape Verde trucks on, and Gordon gets much closer to the United States than it did on the 0z or 6z GFS runs:

[somethingfunny]

I wish everybody on page 202 had used static images to show the global model runs last week. Ernesto kind of surprised everybody by popping up and I'd like to see which models detected it and when they first did so. As for Florence, I know none of the globals saw that one coming.

You got to check page 200. I downloaded those GFS and ECMWF graphics when both began to show what would be Ernesto. I agree about posting graphics without saving them. We encourage the members to save the graphics with imageshack.us,tinypic etc.

Thanks!

edit: argh, I got caught up against the page turn. Last post on the previous page, I posted a rundown of the 12z models with some real interesting things being predicted by the unusually reliable GFS.

[somethingfunny]

18z GFS (I know, I know, it's the 18z...)

I believe that is a re-generated Florence (seems trackable as a distinct feature, although an open wave, across the Atlantic) off New England. The low in the Bay of Campeche may actually be Ernesto's remnant, but it festers for so long I suspect it's a broader area of low pressure that just incorporates Ernesto's remnants.



This run also keeps Gordon north of the Islands and offshore of the US, but it comes VERY close to Bermuda and it could hit Canada hard. It also shows Helene and Isaac (or is it Joyce or Kirk?) coming down the pike:



Let's see if the 00z GFS continues its' insistence on a major long tracking hurricane next week, and if the Euro and CMC can come on board this model cycle.

What's interesting is, the strength of the re-generated Florence may determine how much of a weakness there is to turn Gordon northward.

[HurricaneFan]

Does Gordon in the GFS runs develop from the Tropical Wave that is along 20E right now?(in Africa)

[somethingfunny]

The one behind it, currently in Niger. I am a bit skeptical of this system, because it's so far north - normally you'd see a Cape Verde storm develop well south of 15N and south of the Islands... but the GFS is insistent about this one (and about it coming off of Africa as a rather deep low pressure already) and the GFS has been excellent this season. I still wouldn't take it to the bank until the ECMWF model climbs aboard with agreement.



edit: Er, I thought you said 20 degrees west. I believe it's the wave near the Prime Meridian right now, not the one you asked about.



Maybe it is the one along 20E (which is further south also), as it exits Africa in five days.

[HurricaneFan]

Thanks,that is a Great image of Africa and the Tropical Atlantic.
I think the Wave just east of the Islands on the 21st of Aug(second image of 18Z GFS) is the one in all the way in Eastern Africa right now on that image.Is that correct?

[somethingfunny]

I believe so. Here's a link to the 850mb vorticity loop from the 18z GFS, which shows individual waves better than the 500mb Heights loop, which only shows major systems but shows steering patterns better. Following the timing in the loop, I think the wave exiting Africa now gets swallowed by the wave following it, which is that big Cape Verde storm. The wave following it doesn't do much, and the wave after that (Ethiopia right now I believe) becomes the storm nearing the islands at 384 hours, and the wave following it also develops.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[somethingfunny]

The 00z GFS is in, although the 384 hour frame of the 500mb chart is taking a while to load. I would really like to see that 500mb chart to get a sense of where this is going to go, following this 850mb 384 hour frame:



The 00z GFS also cancelled Florence's re-generation and cancelled anything more than a broad low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, and keeps the African wave train weaker... has the wave following Gordon slowly cross the Atlantic at about 1010mb or so and as you can see, nothing more than a couple high amplitude waves there at the 384 frame.

This model run is only one run of the GFS. It will not be considered reliable until multiple runs of the GFS agree with this solution, which is very unlikely to happen because it's over two weeks into the future.

Here's the 500mb chart. Good thing this is just one run and it's in la-la land, because this scenario doesn't look like an obvious recurve. So much can change between now and then though. The GFS is good, but not THAT good.

[Riptide]

The African disturbance that the GFS develops can be viewed over western Niger.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... NorthWest&

[Hurricaneman]

if you extrapolate the 0zGFS to 400hrs which isn't run it would make landfall on Montauk Pt, I dont think thats going to happen, but it does show development in a few days from the wave over Niger

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[gatorcane]

Change of tune on the 06Z long-range GFS. Niger wave develops and heads west across the Atlantic withour recurving but is much weaker. System is near Cuba below:

Loop:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[gatorcane]

One thing I am seeing hints at with both the GFS and ECMWF long-range 500MB pattern is that there seems be a possible zonal flow setting up over the Western Atlantic and Eastern half of North America once the next trough moves out of the Great Lakes / Northeastern United States region (the same trough that should send Florence on a recurvature in the Western Atlantic). It's in the long range (like 10+ days out) but will be interesting to see if we may be looking at a possible long-wave pattern change setting up for the second half of August with more ridging over the Western Atlantic than we have seen.

Also notice both ECMWF and GFS have some type of system heading west through the Leewards / Greater Antilles area:

06Z GFS 252 hours:


00Z ECMWF 240 hours:

[Bocadude85]

One thing I am seeing hints at with both the GFS and ECMWF long-range 500MB pattern is that there seems be a possible zonal flow setting up over the Western Atlantic and Eastern half of North America once the next trough moves out of the Great Lakes / Northeastern United States region (the same trough that should send Florence on a recurvature in the Western Atlantic). It's in the long range (like 10+ days out) but will be interesting to see if we may be looking at a possible long-wave pattern change setting up for the second half of August with more ridging over the Western Atlantic than we have seen.

Ive also noticed that gatorcane.. also this run brings whats left of Florence much further west before heading out to sea. We will need to keep an eye on future Gordon and see if the GFS keeps sending him west towards the CONUS

[Riptide]

12z GFS Long-range threats

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Long-range threats

http://oi49.tinypic.com/2cni4vr.jpg

To let you know that I downloaded the graphic with tinypic to preserve it.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Some very scary model plots there. Thank goodness they are long range.

[rainstorm]

the interesting thing on the 12z GFS is that the ridge is so strong, and so far north, thus allowing the storms to continue moving west at a high latitude.

[cycloneye]

sf,12z Euro joins GFS on the African development.

120 hours.

[somethingfunny]

ALL ABOARD THE GORDON TRAIN!