ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[mcheer23]

North of forecast points a bit

[Ivanhater]

IF, IF it stays on its current heading, it will pass well north of the NHC track toward the northern Yucatan

[Weatherfreak000]

Ernie appears to be wrapping together an eye, might be able to get an upgrade in the near future. More importantly, Ernie has already climbed the latitude he would if he were on the forecast point and he's still very far East. The center relocation East last night was clutch in starting what we are seeing now. Motion does not appear to be temporary or a wobble, any thoughts on that?

[pgoss11]

Isn't the NHC forecasting a turn back to the west in 2 days?

[JPmia]

yeah this definitely has the makings of our first major for the season.. i think tonight we could see some more strengthening.. and we still have about 36-48 hours until landfall.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Is the NW eyewall open or forming a bigger eye?

Probably open. Its structure isn't flawless, but it does seem to fit on par with high end TS or low end hurricane, so openings here and there probably aren't hugely uncommon. On top of that it does look to have taken in a little bit of dry air so the intensity has probably leveled off temporarily.

Also DMIN has probably started and this is probably contributing to a temporary slowdown in intensification.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ernie appears to be wrapping together an eye, might be able to get an upgrade in the near future. More importantly, Ernie has already climbed the latitude he would if he were on the forecast point and he's still very far East. The center relocation East last night was clutch in starting what we are seeing now. Motion does not appear to be temporary or a wobble, any thoughts on that?

It has been wrapping up an eye, but as of the last frame it has fallen apart. It has definitely ingested dry air but it looks pretty temporary IMO, as it looks like both inflow channels are wrapping some good convection in from the east side. Considering how much the structure has improved in the last 12 or so hours, I dont think it will take as long to mix this out. Nonetheless this is storm is definitely proving its still far from consistent.

[Portastorm]

Ernie appears to be wrapping together an eye, might be able to get an upgrade in the near future. More importantly, Ernie has already climbed the latitude he would if he were on the forecast point and he's still very far East. The center relocation East last night was clutch in starting what we are seeing now. Motion does not appear to be temporary or a wobble, any thoughts on that?

My sense is the more organized Ernesto's vertical structure is, the more apt he'll be to "feel" whatever poleward influences exist.

[wxwatcher1999]

Ok ivanhater if he stays on that course you posted what are your thoughts on him getting into the western gulf of Mexico?

[otowntiger]

IF, IF it stays on its current heading, it will pass well north of the NHC track toward the northern Yucatan

You know that's not happening, they almost never do.

[crimi481]

Note how pieces of N. Outer bands are heading N.N.W -towards S.E Gulf/Fl
The Fl wave may be having effect on Ernie's path -combined with the flows of mid S. Gulf ULL and ULL S.E. of Fl

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[ROCK]

IF, IF it stays on its current heading, it will pass well north of the NHC track toward the northern Yucatan

You know that's not happening, they almost never do.

yeah, the forecast is pretty much set now with all globals and dynamics pretty much zeroed in on a landfall location. Ernie is impressive now and is worthy to be a hurricane. He went through all kinds of issues to get to this point...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

IF, IF it stays on its current heading, it will pass well north of the NHC track toward the northern Yucatan

You know that's not happening, they almost never do.

yeah, the forecast is pretty much set now with all globals and dynamics pretty much zeroed in on a landfall location. Ernie is impressive now and is worthy to be a hurricane. He went through all kinds of issues to get to this point...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, with such tightly clustered models, past history shows that the accuracy on the landfall is pretty much in stone, although the tracks MAY be adjusted every so slightly in one direction or
another.

[Blown Away]

The GFS has become automatic, it was off with the intensity, but pretty much nailed a path through CA when Ernie was well east of the islands.

[pcolaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/ERNESTO.html

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Same intensity,55kts.

AL, 05, 2012080618, , BEST, 0, 160N, 811W, 55, 995, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS has become automatic, it was off with the intensity, but pretty much nailed a path through CA when Ernie was well east of the islands.

it actually wasnt really too far off with the intensity either, heh. Again im surprised by how well it has performed.

[Hurricaneman]

The way the GFS has performed with this getting the exact track nearly right from over a week out, the GFS is the new king of the models

[Portastorm]

The way the GFS has performed with this getting the exact track nearly right from over a week out, the GFS is the new king of the models

On a shorter term, did yesterday's 12z or last night's 0z GFS capture the northwest movement of the storm over the last 6-8 hours?

[Hurricaneman]

The way the GFS has performed with this getting the exact track nearly right from over a week out, the GFS is the new king of the models

On a shorter term, did yesterday's 12z or last night's 0z GFS capture the northwest movement of the storm over the last 6-8 hours?

I believe thats maybe a 12 to 18 hour NW movement, granted no model picked up that movement, but I believe this will go back to a W movement in 12 to 18 hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products