ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Texashawk]

Wasn't that high supposed to continue moving to western Colorado? That's what all the local mets have been saying here (Houston) at any rate, which is why we've got rain in the forecast for the next several days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

I think the current NHC track is still the on. That High is getting stronger

[wxwatcher1999]

Wasn't that high supposed to continue moving to western Colorado? That's what all the local mets have been saying here (Houston) at any rate, which is why we've got rain in the forecast for the next several days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

I think the current NHC track is still the on. That High is getting stronger

That's what our local mets are saying also

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon left before the westward movement began. I'm measuring an average heading of 270 deg from 1545Z to 1845Z (past 3 hrs) and a speed of 14 kts. During that period, the center wobbled around, occasionally appearing to track a little south of due west.

I mean you're the pro met here, but do you have any degree of uncertainty in that measurement? Ive been looking as closely as I can at visible loops, but due the the collapse of convection around the core its been pretty difficult maintaining which gap is actually the remnant eyewall structure. One moment I look at it and I still see the consistent NW motion, and then after seeing your post my eyes can see the west motion and Im not sure which I believe...

[Weatherfreak000]

Wxman47 called that, temporary motion in last two frames appears to be about due west, but IMO it's just a wobble. Ernie should cycle out that dry air and wrap around again. It seems when he intensifies he goes more North and then he will stabilize and start to drift west...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If it continues this pattern, tonight Ernie will be convection less, tomorrow a major!

[tolakram]

Latest



latest loop

[Sanibel]

I honestly don't understand what Ernesto is doing right now. It is pulsing way down and acting like a TS that is in decline and dispersing its energy to the outer bands in a weakening phase expansion. It should rebound with another burst, but the longer that takes the lower the potential. Maybe there's too much Nino air out there?

Track is right along NHC just right of trop points. Should make a difference for San Pedro, Belize.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Time_Zone]

Am I the only one who thinks Ernesto looks really bad(unhealthy) right now?

[tailgater]

I'm not sure if it's been posted yet but GHCC site is back up.

[petit_bois]

One thing Ernie has it's his favor is he's in a VERY moist envelope not. Much different that 2 days ago. Lots of warm moist air down there to tap into.

[SunnyThoughts]

Guess we will see what happens overnight, but looks to be a LOT of dry air at the mid-levels for him to work out before he can strengthen further. Just an opinion, follow NHC for official information.

[tolakram]

Excellent news about the GHCC site. Gives a great view of the current collapse.

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Blinhart]

Guess we will see what happens overnight, but looks to be a LOT of dry air at the mid-levels for him to work out before he can strengthen further. Just an opinion, follow NHC for official information.

Where do you see dry air? I don't see any in the Water Vapor loop.

[cheezyWXguy]

Am I the only one who thinks Ernesto looks really bad(unhealthy) right now?

Nope. The thing looks like crap. However, it does look as though it is trying to mix out the dry air. Based on visible it looks like convection is trying to pop along the periphery of the storm and make its way toward the center. Probably will take a while, but I dont think its gonna fall apart just yet.

[SunnyThoughts]

I've been cruising around to some other weatherboards and seeing what other mets have to say about what is going on. Some seem to feel this is more of a diurnal cycle rather than really dry air getting into the system. They seem to think tonight will tell the tale with increasing convection happening then. Guess we shall see. If he's gonna pulse up and down like this...I hope he's on a downward pulse when he actually comes ashore.

[Rgv20]

12zGFDL at the end of its run has Ernesto making landfall near Tampico with a pressure of 953mb Fortunately the GFDL has not had the hot hand with this storm..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

From a college student I know:

"Ernesto looks fine overall this afternoon. Likely the pinhole eye structure this morning was too small and fragile to hold together, and the core ended up collapsing. When that happens a shot of sinking air occurs at the center and moves outward, increasing convergence in the outer spiral bands for a time, causing them to flare up, but core convection decreases markedly. This air eventually sloshes back in towards the low pressure center, and convection should refire over the center later tonight, especially with the help of the diurnal maximum. Pressure is steady for now at 996mb, and dry air around the storm is a lot less dry than it was just a couple days ago."

[hurricanes1234]

Am I the only one who thinks Ernesto looks really bad(unhealthy) right now?

No, I think so as well. The cloudtops have been warming over the past few hours in the "eye". This morning though, I must admit, Ernesto was impressive with its bursts of convection.

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[floridasun78]

how all i been looking at post from morning to now i see center been look like moving nw i see last postion by hurr hunter still have moving like to nw what you think of this? will nhc say wnw or nw at 5pm?

[ROCK]

looks like he will north a tad of his next forecast point....well within the cone of error. Probably wont make much difference...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.