ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Normally they hang pretty tight to the tcpod & take off times, but there's always the exception....todays one of them. I've got it for alittle while tonight Andrew but will break at some point I'm sure.

[Dave]

Would be very unlikely that they went to Cancun and landed except maybe in the case of an emergency. They were likely headed back to Biloxi. There is an airway that runs from the northeastern tip of the Yucatan up to Just south of New Orleans that is used by air traffic when crossing the GOM. When the Hurricane Hunters are doing their missions in the lower altitudes they obviously are operating "on their own", but when up in the higher altitudes such as they were while headed back to the north they are mixing with other aircraft and in a non-radar environment such as the GOM more often than not all aircraft are on a published airway so air traffic control can separate them from other aircraft.

Thanks for the info on the airway across the GOM and your right once up close to the states it's a aircraft jungle up there.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here you can see the collapse of the very small eyewall and now the building of a larger, new eyewall:

14:43Z:



18:14Z:



Once we get a new convective burst over the center, things will start to get goin'. Hopefully recon is in there for that, if it happens.

(Not a professional forecast, just my opinion)

[tailgater]

CGANE, what's up with that area at @ 15.5 80.5 refiring like crazy.

[drezee]

42057 is being bombarded! 17+ ft waves

52mph sustained and Gusts to 60+mph measured...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

2nd hour with winds sustained over 52mph and Gusts over 60mph

Seas up to 21 now!

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure has expanded in size.

[tailgater]

42057 is being bombarded! 17+ ft waves

52mph sustained and Gusts to 60+mph measured...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

2nd hour with winds sustained over 52mph and Gusts over 60mph

Seas up to 21 now!

The winds and seas out of the east or eene so the center should still be ABOUT due south of that buoy.

[BZSTORM]

This evenings mission...takeoff around 4:30 pm edt. I should be on for at least the first part.

A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
C. 06/2015Z
D. 16.0N 83.2W
E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Should they have left already if it was sheduled to leave at 4.30pm EST (2.30pm BZ Time) and its now 4.36pm in Belize????

[WxEnthus]

Wind speed & pressure graph from a buoy located at 17N 81.5W -- it was not directly in the path of Ernesto but the closest one in the area:

[drezee]

Pressure got down to 1002.2 MB with over 50mph sustained winds...

[Dave]

This evenings mission...takeoff around 4:30 pm edt. I should be on for at least the first part.

A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
C. 06/2015Z
D. 16.0N 83.2W
E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Should they have left already if it was sheduled to leave at 4.30pm EST (2.30pm BZ Time) and its now 4.36pm in Belize????

Just waiting...they do vary take off times once in awhile.

[brunota2003]

The 5:50 pm EDT update of that buoy had the center of Ernesto 48 nautical miles almost due south of it (the bearing from Ernesto to the buoy was 7 degrees).

[Texashawk]

That is a huge circulation. Scary to think if it had more time to get going...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Sanibel]

West side thickening in with convection.

[EBrads146]

Goodness, this thing ballooned up. I think the next few hours will be very interesting. (Just my amateur opinion.)

[artist]

I hate this waiting not knowing.

[hurricanes1234]

The overall appearance seems unequal - almost all of the cold cloudtops are located in the eastern half of the storm. The update is in less than 1 hour, so pay close attention to what the NHC says. I am interested to see what they'll find, though I don't think it'll be much of a difference from the 5 PM update.

_________________
Just my take on what's going on, it's not meant to be taken as an official forecast. For official forecasts, please see the NWS line of products.

[drezee]

Pressure got down to 1002.2 MB with over 50mph sustained winds...

Ernie broke the buoy! Wind gauge stopped reporting. Waves still over 20ft...

[Dave]

AF 303 enroute to Ernesto from Keesler AFB MS...

Anyone want to work the graphics for awhile? (After they get a little closer in)

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon finally in the air headed to the storm.