ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062313
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120806
225900 2653N 08819W 3761 08075 0457 -190 -269 201014 015 /// /// 03
225930 2651N 08818W 3759 08079 0458 -190 -263 200014 014 /// /// 03
230000 2648N 08817W 3761 08075 0458 -190 -257 204014 014 /// /// 03
230030 2646N 08817W 3758 08083 0459 -190 -252 203014 015 /// /// 03
230100 2643N 08816W 3759 08078 0458 -190 -254 207015 016 /// /// 03
230130 2641N 08815W 3758 08079 0458 -193 -253 211017 018 /// /// 03
230200 2638N 08814W 3759 08076 0457 -190 -255 215018 019 /// /// 03
230230 2636N 08813W 3759 08075 0457 -190 -264 217018 018 /// /// 03
230300 2633N 08812W 3758 08079 0458 -191 -273 219020 021 /// /// 03
230330 2631N 08811W 3759 08079 0458 -193 -293 220020 021 /// /// 03
230400 2628N 08810W 3759 08079 0459 -190 -295 217017 019 /// /// 03
230430 2626N 08809W 3758 08081 0459 -190 -290 218018 018 /// /// 03
230500 2624N 08808W 3759 08079 0459 -190 -289 218019 020 /// /// 03
230530 2621N 08807W 3762 08075 0459 -190 -293 216019 020 /// /// 03
230600 2619N 08806W 3759 08077 0458 -190 -288 218018 019 /// /// 03
230630 2616N 08805W 3759 08077 0458 -190 -289 221018 019 /// /// 03
230700 2614N 08804W 3759 08077 0457 -190 -301 220017 018 /// /// 03
230730 2611N 08803W 3759 08077 0457 -190 -309 218018 018 /// /// 03
230800 2609N 08802W 3758 08079 0457 -190 -309 216019 019 /// /// 03
230830 2606N 08801W 3758 08079 0458 -190 -310 216018 019 /// /// 03
$$
;

AF 303 enroute to Ernesto...from Keesler AFB MS.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like convection is beginning to pop near the center. I believe we'll see another ramp up this evening!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062317
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120806
230900 2604N 08800W 3759 08077 0458 -190 -312 216018 018 /// /// 03
230930 2601N 08759W 3758 08076 0455 -190 -313 216018 018 /// /// 03
231000 2559N 08759W 3759 08072 0453 -190 -313 215019 020 /// /// 03
231030 2557N 08758W 3758 08071 0451 -190 -304 215019 020 /// /// 03
231100 2554N 08757W 3761 08067 0449 -190 -302 216018 019 /// /// 03
231130 2552N 08756W 3759 08070 0449 -190 -302 219018 018 /// /// 03
231200 2549N 08755W 3758 08069 0448 -190 -300 218019 019 /// /// 03
231230 2547N 08754W 3758 08070 0448 -190 -286 216019 019 /// /// 03
231300 2544N 08753W 3759 08066 0448 -190 -279 216018 019 /// /// 03
231330 2542N 08752W 3759 08067 0448 -185 -281 212017 018 /// /// 03
231400 2539N 08751W 3759 08067 0448 -185 -288 212017 017 /// /// 03
231430 2537N 08750W 3759 08067 0448 -185 -292 211016 017 /// /// 03
231500 2534N 08749W 3758 08069 0447 -185 -303 212016 016 /// /// 03
231530 2532N 08748W 3758 08068 0447 -185 -316 211016 016 /// /// 03
231600 2530N 08747W 3759 08067 0446 -185 -312 211016 016 /// /// 03
231630 2527N 08746W 3759 08065 0446 -185 -303 211015 016 /// /// 03
231700 2525N 08745W 3759 08064 0445 -185 -294 211016 017 /// /// 03
231730 2522N 08745W 3759 08062 0444 -187 -291 211017 017 /// /// 03
231800 2520N 08744W 3759 08062 0443 -186 -293 213017 017 /// /// 03
231830 2517N 08743W 3758 08063 0441 -185 -270 213018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[stephen23]

Is that a new eye forming at 16.5N 80.0W?

[artist]

AF 303 enroute to Ernesto from Keesler AFB MS...

Anyone want to work the graphics for awhile? (After they get a little closer in)

Dave, I can help in about an hour and half or 2. Sorry I can't right now.

[Air Force Met]

Is that a new eye forming at 16.5N 80.0W?

No. There is no eye on this satellite imagery. Dry air has taken it's toll on the system and convection is pretty weak right now. NO eye.

[Dave]

AF 303 enroute to Ernesto from Keesler AFB MS...

Anyone want to work the graphics for awhile? (After they get a little closer in)

Dave, I can help in about an hour and half or 2. Sorry I can't right now.

That's fine long haul out to the storm.

[SunnyThoughts]

You can see by this sat pic, he has a lonnnnngggg way to go.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062327
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 13 20120806
231900 2515N 08742W 3760 08060 0440 -187 -231 205014 018 015 002 03
231930 2512N 08741W 3758 08062 0440 -185 -245 200016 016 018 000 00
232000 2510N 08740W 3758 08066 0444 -185 -267 202016 017 018 000 00
232030 2508N 08739W 3759 08067 0446 -189 -268 203015 015 017 001 00
232100 2505N 08738W 3761 08063 0446 -190 -257 216013 015 018 000 00
232130 2503N 08737W 3758 08068 0446 -188 -247 224015 016 019 000 00
232200 2500N 08736W 3759 08066 0446 -185 -252 220015 016 020 000 00
232230 2458N 08735W 3757 08071 0446 -188 -263 219016 017 019 000 00
232300 2455N 08734W 3758 08067 0446 -187 -269 216015 016 019 001 00
232330 2453N 08733W 3761 08064 0447 -190 -278 211014 015 020 000 00
232400 2450N 08732W 3761 08066 0448 -188 -286 214014 014 020 000 00
232430 2448N 08732W 3758 08069 0448 -190 -301 216013 013 021 001 00
232500 2445N 08731W 3761 08066 0447 -185 -310 211012 013 021 000 00
232530 2443N 08730W 3758 08069 0448 -185 -309 209013 013 021 000 00
232600 2440N 08729W 3759 08068 0448 -185 -306 213013 013 021 000 00
232630 2438N 08728W 3759 08068 0449 -185 -304 216013 013 021 001 00
232700 2435N 08727W 3759 08069 0449 -184 -300 212013 014 021 000 00
232730 2433N 08726W 3759 08070 0450 -184 -298 213013 013 022 000 00
232800 2430N 08725W 3759 08070 0451 -185 -298 216013 013 022 000 00
232830 2428N 08724W 3758 08072 0451 -185 -298 215013 013 021 000 00
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

You can see by this sat pic, he has a lonnnnngggg way to go.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... zaMewV.jpg

a long way to go, yes, but you can see he's on his way to recovery. Note the small bursts of convection in the NE quad. If these continue to form and start to wrap their way around to the NW and so on, it will be a promising sign the entire circulation is beginning to really moisten up, and from there a large burst of convection over the center would be likely. We will have to see if the trend continues.

EDIT: in fact it looks like we may have seen the first sign of this occuring. We now have a very small but pretty tall burst that has gone up right near the center...

[cycloneye]

You can see by this sat pic, he has a lonnnnngggg way to go.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... zaMewV.jpg

What only a few hours can change in a dramatic way the big picture. This morning it looked like it was going to be a hurricane as it was in strenthgening mode with pressures falling and winds going up per recon and this evening looks like a wimpy system. Will it recover after this brick of dry air penetrated the core?

[Air Force Met]

West side thickening in with convection.

West side is blowing up with convection due to all the arc clouds getting spit out. That is because of the dry air that was ingested. In the big picture, it won't help the system.

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H AND
A GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062337
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 14 20120806
232900 2425N 08723W 3759 08070 0450 -184 -301 211012 013 020 001 00
232930 2423N 08722W 3760 08068 0449 -181 -300 208011 012 021 000 00
233000 2420N 08721W 3759 08067 0447 -180 -303 213011 011 019 001 00
233030 2418N 08720W 3759 08067 0447 -180 -308 222011 011 019 001 00
233100 2416N 08719W 3758 08070 0448 -180 -310 226011 011 021 001 00
233130 2413N 08718W 3758 08068 0447 -180 -312 226012 012 021 001 00
233200 2411N 08717W 3758 08069 0447 -180 -315 223012 012 021 000 00
233230 2408N 08716W 3758 08068 0446 -183 -319 220012 012 021 000 00
233300 2406N 08715W 3761 08064 0447 -180 -319 223012 012 021 001 00
233330 2404N 08714W 3757 08074 0449 -180 -317 216012 012 022 000 00
233400 2401N 08713W 3759 08069 0451 -180 -310 212011 012 021 001 00
233430 2359N 08711W 3761 08068 0450 -180 -292 221009 010 021 001 00
233500 2356N 08710W 3761 08065 0449 -180 -279 228009 009 022 000 00
233530 2354N 08709W 3759 08071 0451 -180 -270 226009 010 021 001 00
233600 2351N 08708W 3758 08074 0451 -182 -268 217008 010 022 001 00
233630 2349N 08707W 3761 08069 0452 -182 -254 212007 007 022 000 00
233700 2346N 08706W 3758 08076 0452 -183 -229 209010 011 022 000 00
233730 2344N 08705W 3758 08071 0451 -186 -219 234008 012 024 000 00
233800 2342N 08704W 3757 08077 0453 -182 -224 216013 015 025 000 00
233830 2339N 08703W 3757 08077 0453 -183 -253 196011 012 024 000 00
$$
;

[BZSTORM]

thanks for the answer as artist put it "hate waiting not knowing" lol
so if the google map of recon flight at tropicalatlantic.com is more or less to distance scale - looks to be at least 3/4hr till recon reached yucatan tip, then approx another 1hr or so till it reaches storm area? or am i overestimating?

[drezee]

Pressure got down to 1002.2 MB with over 50mph sustained winds...

Ernie broke the buoy! Wind gauge stopped reporting. Waves still over 20ft...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H AND
A GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H


The NHC cited the buoy...

[Dave]

thanks for the answer as artist put it "hate waiting not knowing" lol
so if the google map of recon flight at tropicalatlantic.com is more or less to distance scale - looks to be at least 3/4hr till recon reached yucatan tip, then approx another 1hr or so till it reaches storm area? or am i overestimating?

Another 20 minutes and they'll be in the straits then onto the storm...say 1 hour at the most before the first pass starts give or take 10 mins either way. I use GE's program on this laptop and it seems to run a little faster at times than TA but it's a direct feed which makes a little difference too.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062347
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 15 20120806
233900 2337N 08701W 3762 08066 0453 -183 -282 212010 012 025 000 00
233930 2334N 08700W 3761 08070 0453 -181 -294 228008 009 025 001 00
234000 2332N 08659W 3758 08075 0452 -185 -295 224008 009 023 000 00
234030 2329N 08658W 3762 08065 0451 -181 -293 222008 008 024 000 00
234100 2327N 08657W 3755 08078 0451 -182 -287 221010 011 025 000 00
234130 2324N 08656W 3759 08070 0450 -185 -265 237009 010 023 000 00
234200 2322N 08655W 3757 08072 0448 -184 -219 212011 013 022 000 00
234230 2319N 08654W 3762 08065 0450 -185 -196 183010 011 022 000 00
234300 2317N 08653W 3761 08067 0449 -185 -200 216008 010 026 001 00
234330 2315N 08652W 3761 08066 0449 -185 -205 218005 007 023 001 03
234400 2312N 08651W 3759 08070 0450 -183 -217 168004 005 029 005 00
234430 2310N 08650W 3761 08065 0448 -185 -206 121006 008 030 002 00
234500 2308N 08649W 3761 08066 0448 -185 -199 117007 009 028 001 00
234530 2306N 08648W 3762 08065 0449 -184 -205 131003 006 026 001 00
234600 2304N 08647W 3759 08071 0451 -184 -239 146004 004 025 001 00
234630 2302N 08646W 3761 08072 0452 -183 -263 137003 004 024 000 00
234700 2259N 08644W 3761 08068 0451 -180 -264 159003 003 022 000 00
234730 2257N 08643W 3758 08074 0451 -176 -279 111003 004 020 000 00
234800 2255N 08642W 3759 08069 0451 -175 -298 080003 003 020 000 00
234830 2253N 08641W 3758 08072 0451 -180 -309 084002 003 022 000 00
$$
;