ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like a June TS now.

That's one whale of a TS though. Circulation is really large.

yep, I think thats the one thing I would add to your analysis above. A serious issue this thing has been dealing with today is the rapid expansion of the circulation in an area contained in almost all directions by land. This has allowed the storm to ingest a huge amount of dry air today and has also made it very difficult and time consuming to mix out. Ernesto may never fully recover to its more traditional appearance and if it does actually strengthen to a hurricane, I wonder just how unconventional its appearance will be for such a strength.

[Macrocane]

Great, thank you!

[littlevince]

I also leave, but I think the flight itself should be near the end.
Best regards.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070518
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 48 20120807
050900 1626N 08338W 8426 01556 0078 +165 +153 275022 023 022 006 00
050930 1625N 08336W 8429 01549 0078 +165 +151 273024 024 024 005 00
051000 1625N 08334W 8427 01552 0078 +165 +157 272025 026 025 004 00
051030 1624N 08333W 8430 01550 0077 +166 +150 270026 026 024 005 00
051100 1623N 08331W 8429 01553 0076 +170 +146 268026 026 023 005 00
051130 1623N 08329W 8430 01551 0076 +169 +148 267024 025 022 005 00
051200 1622N 08327W 8428 01552 0075 +168 +150 266025 025 027 005 00
051230 1621N 08326W 8429 01551 0077 +165 +155 266025 025 026 008 00
051300 1620N 08324W 8429 01552 0078 +165 +156 263025 025 027 008 00
051330 1620N 08322W 8432 01550 0077 +166 +155 261024 025 025 008 00
051400 1619N 08320W 8429 01550 0077 +168 +148 258022 024 024 006 00
051430 1618N 08319W 8430 01552 0077 +167 +157 257022 023 026 005 00
051500 1618N 08317W 8432 01549 0078 +165 +160 252021 021 027 006 00
051530 1617N 08315W 8428 01557 0077 +169 +152 248021 023 026 007 03
051600 1618N 08314W 8429 01553 0077 +166 +161 246017 019 /// /// 03
051630 1620N 08314W 8430 01550 0076 +166 +161 247017 018 026 007 00
051700 1622N 08314W 8430 01548 0075 +165 +152 247020 020 028 008 00
051730 1623N 08314W 8429 01549 0074 +167 +154 250020 021 028 008 00
051800 1625N 08314W 8432 01545 0073 +163 +153 246022 022 027 007 00
051830 1627N 08314W 8426 01549 0072 +166 +154 250023 023 028 008 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070528
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 49 20120807
051900 1628N 08314W 8432 01544 0071 +164 +156 244024 024 031 011 00
051930 1630N 08314W 8429 01544 0068 +166 +155 239023 023 033 011 00
052000 1632N 08314W 8432 01542 0067 +168 +157 239023 024 032 010 00
052030 1634N 08314W 8429 01542 0066 +165 +165 241024 024 030 006 00
052100 1635N 08314W 8431 01540 0064 +160 +160 240024 024 031 008 01
052130 1637N 08314W 8429 01540 0063 +160 +160 241026 027 034 010 01
052200 1639N 08314W 8440 01526 0068 +160 +160 241023 027 038 016 01
052230 1641N 08314W 8424 01542 0063 +160 +160 241022 023 037 011 01
052300 1642N 08314W 8433 01532 0060 +160 +160 237022 023 031 007 01
052330 1644N 08314W 8426 01536 0058 +160 +160 245021 021 035 008 01
052400 1646N 08314W 8428 01533 0059 +160 +160 239020 021 037 012 01
052430 1648N 08314W 8422 01537 //// +154 //// 248020 023 037 011 01
052500 1649N 08314W 8433 01525 0050 +170 +170 255021 022 036 008 01
052530 1651N 08314W 8429 01526 0047 +170 +170 253021 022 035 007 01
052600 1653N 08314W 8430 01524 0046 +170 +170 257023 025 034 009 01
052630 1654N 08314W 8426 01526 0043 +170 +170 262025 026 037 009 01
052700 1656N 08314W 8429 01518 0038 +170 +170 259026 027 036 010 01
052730 1658N 08314W 8430 01516 0034 +170 +170 254026 027 036 009 01
052800 1659N 08314W 8426 01516 0028 +170 +170 255027 028 034 007 01
052830 1701N 08314W 8428 01511 0024 +170 +170 253027 028 033 005 01
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

Edited to post correct image.

[WxEnthus]

I think they're taking one last pass at the center and then probably wrapping it up & going home.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070538
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 50 20120807
052900 1703N 08314W 8433 01500 0017 +170 +170 259027 028 033 005 01
052930 1704N 08315W 8428 01500 0013 +170 +170 262028 030 034 007 01
053000 1706N 08315W 8430 01494 0006 +170 +170 262030 030 032 006 01
053030 1707N 08315W 8429 01490 0000 +170 +170 262029 031 032 004 01
053100 1709N 08316W 8428 01484 9991 +177 +176 263028 029 031 005 00
053130 1711N 08316W 8433 01471 9980 +183 +173 271031 032 033 005 00
053200 1712N 08316W 8430 01467 9969 +188 +179 279031 032 035 005 00
053230 1714N 08316W 8429 01461 9955 +195 +191 279020 030 033 005 00
053300 1715N 08316W 8432 01453 9949 +195 +187 292012 016 030 005 00
053330 1717N 08316W 8425 01455 9947 +190 +190 320004 010 020 005 01
053400 1719N 08316W 8432 01447 9942 +192 +191 065004 006 019 004 00
053430 1720N 08315W 8432 01445 9943 +190 +190 089013 017 021 005 01
053500 1722N 08315W 8431 01446 9943 +180 +180 087025 027 028 007 01
053530 1724N 08315W 8435 01448 9948 +190 +190 088030 033 030 004 01
053600 1725N 08315W 8434 01451 9947 +198 +192 088038 042 048 005 00
053630 1727N 08315W 8434 01455 9956 +190 +190 087051 056 055 006 01
053700 1728N 08315W 8429 01471 9974 +180 +180 092060 061 051 008 01
053730 1730N 08315W 8432 01475 9985 +179 +172 095061 062 050 005 00
053800 1732N 08315W 8428 01486 9994 +177 +173 099061 062 053 004 00
053830 1733N 08315W 8426 01494 0003 +170 +170 099059 061 053 007 01
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

[WxEnthus]

Looks like they quit transmitting immediately after the last dropsonde once they got the center fix for the interim advisory (or there are technical problems) as there have been no new HDOBs in the last 40 minutes and the GE plugin hasn't updated either. I expected a few more to come in since they were still near the center and often transmit during at least part of the flight home but I guess I'm headed to bed. See y'all in the morning.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT12 KNHC 070618
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/05:33:40Z
B. 17 deg 17 min N
083 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1380 m
D. 38 kt
E. 177 deg 38 nm
F. 270 deg 32 kt
G. 177 deg 6 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. open wnw-nw
M. C25
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0905A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 63 KT N QUAD 05:55:10Z
Max outbound sws 55kt 05:36:30Z
;

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 070554
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070622
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 53 20120807
055900 1842N 08314W 8430 01562 0096 +160 +145 116057 059 034 004 00
055930 1844N 08314W 8431 01566 0098 +163 +145 115058 059 033 004 00
060000 1845N 08314W 8433 01562 0099 +165 +137 113056 057 033 004 00
060030 1847N 08314W 8430 01566 0100 +162 +133 112056 057 032 005 00
060100 1849N 08314W 8427 01571 0098 +168 +121 111056 058 031 004 00
060130 1851N 08314W 8429 01569 0101 +165 +139 110056 057 031 003 00
060200 1852N 08314W 8429 01572 0103 +165 +132 110054 054 031 004 00
060230 1854N 08314W 8426 01576 0104 +163 +141 108052 054 032 004 00
060300 1856N 08314W 8434 01565 0102 +164 +143 113053 054 033 004 00
060330 1858N 08314W 8427 01575 0106 +160 +146 111051 053 033 005 03
060400 1859N 08315W 8429 01572 0107 +160 +146 108051 052 032 005 00
060430 1901N 08315W 8430 01573 0105 +161 +147 107050 051 035 006 00
060500 1903N 08316W 8270 01736 0106 +151 +151 109049 051 036 007 00
060530 1904N 08317W 8061 01955 0107 +140 +134 110056 059 040 009 00
060600 1906N 08318W 7861 02170 0112 +120 +120 119056 058 037 010 01
060630 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0101 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
060700 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
060730 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
060800 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
060830 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
$$
;

HDOBs 51 and 52 are missing, they didn't transmit earlier and I can't find them in the archived files.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070623
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 54 20120807
060900 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
060930 1908N 08319W 7667 02370 0099 +117 +108 117054 056 037 004 00
061000 1917N 08330W 6318 03991 0100 +080 +080 100047 054 036 009 05
061030 1918N 08332W 6092 04301 //// +029 //// 078040 043 /// /// 05
061100 1919N 08334W 5911 04521 0048 +030 +030 089042 045 /// /// 05
061130 1920N 08336W 5718 04780 0031 +010 +010 089036 044 /// /// 05
061200 1921N 08338W 5516 05093 0034 +000 +000 091034 035 /// /// 05
061230 1922N 08341W 5338 05355 0267 -010 -010 086032 033 /// /// 05
061300 1923N 08343W 5181 05591 0283 -020 -020 082034 036 033 005 01
061330 1924N 08345W 5037 05816 0298 -040 -040 081034 036 032 005 01
061400 1925N 08347W 4882 06064 0312 -050 -050 080034 035 032 005 01
061430 1926N 08349W 4744 06288 0328 -060 -060 078030 034 030 004 05
061500 1927N 08351W 4610 06508 0341 -077 -078 077029 030 031 003 00
061530 1929N 08353W 4486 06711 0349 -089 -093 079030 030 032 003 00
061600 1930N 08355W 4373 06906 0362 -101 -103 077031 031 030 003 00
061630 1931N 08357W 4266 07098 0373 -110 -114 079030 031 028 004 00
061700 1932N 08359W 4172 07276 0388 -120 -125 081031 031 028 003 00
061730 1933N 08401W 4079 07444 0398 -128 -139 075036 037 027 003 03
061800 1934N 08403W 4015 07568 0407 -139 -139 079036 036 026 003 00
061830 1935N 08405W 3947 07692 0416 -140 -140 078033 035 025 003 01
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

Looks like they had some issues, two areas with no data transmitted.

[WxEnthus]

A few more HDOBs and a VDM came in but some are missing and have not appeared in the archive as of yet, seems like they experienced some technical issues. GE plugin shows two problem areas with no data. Anyway, they are headed home now.

[WxEnthus]

Latest:



That's a big tropical storm. Good thing he had troubles yesterday staying organized and now only has a short time left over water. Including those outer bands Ernesto appears bigger than the GOM.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 070850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 83.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[Nimbus]

Central pressure is down and Ernesto is ramping up with his usual morning diurnal convective burst. Now that he has worked out the dry air lets see if he makes a run for hurricane status.

The cyclonic upper air rotation to Ernestos NW seems to be weakening and the gulf coast trough is now digging to the mid gulf coast. Its August so the trough should stall there, way to far north for Ernesto to feel any steering effects.

Still think Ernesto will make landfall on the Yucatan north of Belize as a hurricane.

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