ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Riptide]

:uarrow: how about the one east of that? Wonder what it is going to look like when it leaves the coast

This is the wave that the GFS and other global models were identifying as a long tracking Cape Verde hurricane.

[Gustywind]

Interresting debuts for August since one week we alaways have something to track... and keep an eye on as things heating up more than seriously. Twaves becoming more organized but conditions are not really excellent. Let's wait and see.

[Hurricane Alexis]

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Hurricane Alexis]

0z Euro at 120hrs. First model showing some development out of this wave.



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[Hurricane Alexis]

HWRF also develops it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

Stays at 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 18N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N27W AND AN EARLIER 06/2248 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
22W-29W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM
09N-12N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

[Gustywind]

07/0600 UTC 11.7N 27.9W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[FutureEM]

Not really a criticism of the NHC, but I think they have this pegged a bit low for development. It's been persistent since it left the coast in a high SAL environment, plus it has a higher chance of going into the Caribbean then Florence. JMO

[cycloneye]

12z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1200 120808 0000 120808 1200 120809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 29.6W 12.4N 32.1W 12.7N 35.0W 12.7N 38.1W
BAMD 11.8N 29.6W 12.5N 32.5W 13.1N 35.2W 13.4N 37.9W
BAMM 11.8N 29.6W 12.7N 32.2W 13.3N 34.8W 13.4N 37.3W
LBAR 11.8N 29.6W 12.4N 32.6W 13.2N 35.7W 13.9N 38.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1200 120810 1200 120811 1200 120812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 41.3W 11.4N 48.6W 11.5N 56.9W 12.8N 65.5W
BAMD 13.2N 40.4W 12.5N 45.1W 12.4N 49.5W 13.2N 53.5W
BAMM 13.1N 39.8W 11.9N 44.7W 11.1N 49.3W 11.1N 53.8W
LBAR 14.2N 41.3W 14.1N 46.7W 14.2N 51.2W 13.2N 52.5W
SHIP 37KTS 44KTS 55KTS 67KTS
DSHP 37KTS 44KTS 55KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 29.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 26.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 24.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



[ROCK]

Not really a criticism of the NHC, but I think they have this pegged a bit low for development. It's been persistent since it left the coast in a high SAL environment, plus it has a higher chance of going into the Caribbean then Florence. JMO

oh they will be all over it once it gets around 70W or so....thats if it survives...I think Flo took some of that SAL with her and opened the door for Flash Gordon,,,

[Gustywind]

07/1145 UTC 12.0N 29.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
07/0600 UTC 11.7N 27.9W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Blown Away]

12z Ships has 92L as a hurricane in 120 hours? Is anybody buying this at this time? I'm not seeing much model support??

[ROCK]

new intensity forecast out....LGEM and SHIPS brings this to a cat 1 east of windard islands.....uh Luis / Gusty you might want to be watching this one REAL close...

[tolakram]

latest loop

[tolakram]

Visible from an hour ago.

[Steve H.]

Interestingly the 12Z GFS doesn't develop 92L at all. It develops the low behind it. hhhhmmm.

[Aric Dunn]

Does not look to be as elongated anymore. as convection increases should tighten up. Its also far enough to the south to stay away from most of the sal. in the next hour depending on convection they may go up to 30% but more likely at 8 if convection keeps increasing.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.