Caribbean - Central America Weather

[South Texas Storms]

Once its above 16.4 N I will breath a bit easier for my home but have bad feeling about Ernesto where ever he ends up, now waiting with baited breath for the 2pm EST advisory. Unfortuantly I have a baby animal nursing and cant go out to village for any supplies until after noon BZ time anyway. Every year I sound like a stuck record saying I cant believe that storms coming this way are coming earlier and earlier

Stay safe down there BZSTORM!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,here is the 2 PM update of the models.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND ON TUESDAY BEFORE A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS BRINGING
WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN IN THE AFTERNOON...ALSO...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST FLOW MAY
HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIGGING TUTT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVING WEST ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST BUT LEAVES LINGERING MOISTURE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 1.8
INCHES BUT A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND NAAPS
MODEL INDICATES THAT SOME SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT MOST VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN P6SM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 18 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 70 70
STT 81 88 81 88 / 20 20 70 70

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning for all the coast of Belize

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

[BZSTORM]

Ok just had time to catch up, thanks for posting latest model runs Luis.
Ok here is latest NEMO :

National Emergency Management Organization
“Preserving Life and Property”
DATE: Monday, 06th, August 2012 TIME: 12:00 Midday
NEMO Public Advisory # 5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
TIME: 12:00 MIDDAY
LOCATION: 16.2N 81.1W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 483 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM
THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West North West at 12 MPH

NEMO declares Hurricane warning Red II, for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later today.

At this time NEMO urges the public to put their Hurricane plan into action! People living along the coast and in the outer Cayes: Turneffe, Glover’s Reef, Light House, Half-moon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye need to heed the warnings issued by NEMO and make necessary preparations to move in land. Coast Guard have been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. Those persons who are capable of leaving the Cayes on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate!
...
People living in areas that normally flood need to move to a dry and safe building and remember to take along their food and water to the Shelter.

NEMO hereby notifies ALL employers that they MUST allow their workers time off effective tomorrow morning to secure their families.

Tomorrow additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to support the public moving inland. Government Transport will be pooled for deployment in Corozal, Orange Walk, Belize City and Cayo District.

Effective today, the Ministry of Education has called off the workshop for principals and teachers, including orientations and registrations. Principals and teachers are asked to use the rest of today to secure their schools to ensure that equipment, materials and other resources are out of harm’s way and that the school is prepared if it is to be used as a shelter. Furthermore, after securing their schools equipment, principals of schools identified as official shelters are asked to turn over school keys to their respective emergency management organizations (DEMOs, CEMOs or VEMOs).

Public Officers must be ready for Shelter duties.

At 1:00 p.m. today NEMO will be on full activation country wide.

Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H AND
A GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[BZSTORM]

Belize preps underway, better safe than sorry
National Emergency Management Organization
“Preserving Life and Property”
DATE: Monday, 06th, August 2012 TIME: 12:00 Midday
NEMO Public Advisory # 5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
TIME: 12:00 MIDDAY
LOCATION: 16.2N 81.1W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 483 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM
THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West North West at 12 MPH

NEMO declares Hurricane warning Red II, for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later today.

At this time NEMO urges the public to put their Hurricane plan into action! People living along the coast and in the outer Cayes: Turneffe, Glover’s Reef, Light House, Half-moon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye need to heed the warnings issued by NEMO and make necessary preparations to move in land. Coast Guard have been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. Those persons who are capable of leaving the Cayes on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate!
...
People living in areas that normally flood need to move to a dry and safe building and remember to take along their food and water to the Shelter.

NEMO hereby notifies ALL employers that they MUST allow their workers time off effective tomorrow morning to secure their families.

Tomorrow additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to support the public moving inland. Government Transport will be pooled for deployment in Corozal, Orange Walk, Belize City and Cayo District.

Effective today, the Ministry of Education has called off the workshop for principals and teachers, including orientations and registrations. Principals and teachers are asked to use the rest of today to secure their schools to ensure that equipment, materials and other resources are out of harm’s way and that the school is prepared if it is to be used as a shelter. Furthermore, after securing their schools equipment, principals of schools identified as official shelters are asked to turn over school keys to their respective emergency management organizations (DEMOs, CEMOs or VEMOs).

Public Officers must be ready for Shelter duties.

At 1:00 p.m. today NEMO will be on full activation country wide.

Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service

[artist]

stay safe BZStorm, know we are thinking about you all. Let us know how things are when you can if you get hit.

[BZSTORM]

report from coleman cafe down in Punta Gorda of heavy rain, thunderstorms (assuming outer rain bands starting to affect the air) 400km radar loop shows bands starting to come in http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...
205 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[BZSTORM]

As I go to bed the air is cooling down from being super hot this morning, calm barely and breeze, at 9.30pm took stroll to beach sea was falt while on horizon I could see distant lightening and rolling thunder, had some rain but pretty light weight. Looking at Radar North of country feeling Ernesto more than down here.
Animals in my yard didnt seem bothered this evening raccoons hung out on th poerch as per normal, I can still hear the bugss making thier night time songs. Well Ernesto is a good bit above my exact location, and so the immediate threat of direct hit diminished, but we already have learnt how a good rain storm can disrupt life here so we will see come morning how things fair for rest of Belize . Night all.

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry BZSTORM and keep us informed as usual and as possible.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave moving thru the Eastern Caribbean will bring scattered showers to the islands. Also,we are watching Ex Florence and invest 92L.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N 70W WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THU AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUTT EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE
AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROF AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PR. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AS HAVING AN INVERTED-V SHAPE.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND ERN PR.
WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT LOW
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OVER WATER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATER
WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
QUICKLY WED MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING.

REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU AND
WILL BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE OTHER THAN LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE TUTT. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.

CURRENT INVEST 92L IN THE ERN ATLC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH ROOM
FOR SURVIVAL AS MOST OF THE GFES MEMBERS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATING AROUND 24 HRS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT
07/15Z. AFT 07/18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS AND WINDS AROUND 15
KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 88 80 / 20 70 70 30
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 70 70 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEADS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[msbee]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml

[cycloneye]

Reports from Belize.


•From: Juana Avila <avigabi2005 at yahoo.com>
•Date: Tue, 7 Aug 2012 06:29:15 -0700 (PDT)


Good Morning To All,

This morning in Belize City the sky is white and overcast. There is a slight breeze blowing from the North East. Early this morning there was lighting on the horizon East of Belize City, but did not turned into a thunderstorm.

Nemo Belize has posted a Hurricane Watch for the entire coast of Belize as Tropical Storm Ernesto looms some 273 miles East North East of Belize City (Belize City is at 17.3 N and Ernesto is at 17.8 N moving on a WNW at 13 miles an hour). Today, August 7th has been declared a holiday for the entire country by the Government of Belize as we prepare.

Ernesto has been erratic in its movement over the last 24 hrs, so although it seems as though the system may continue on its general direction, Belizeans will have to remain vigilant for the next 24 hrs. Historically, Belize has had some storms doing some weird last minute turns and loops and hitting us. Although Belize City is still on the Southern fringes of the projection cone, our Town of Corozal, which is our most Northernly Town near the Mexican border could still become ground zero, so that is where most of our attention lies currently.

Later I will give an update as the storm moves closer to Belize.

Best Regards

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH