ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

URNT15 KNHC 071426
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120807
141730 1811N 08453W 8422 01421 9894 +213 +186 048053 054 043 005 00
141800 1812N 08454W 8433 01420 9911 +203 +196 053051 054 043 005 00
141830 1814N 08455W 8428 01440 9933 +190 +190 059053 053 038 005 01
141900 1815N 08457W 8432 01448 9947 +190 +190 063052 053 039 006 01
141930 1816N 08458W 8433 01456 9961 +180 +180 065049 051 040 006 01
142000 1817N 08459W 8422 01472 9965 +189 +185 065050 050 042 005 00
142030 1819N 08501W 8430 01472 9974 +180 +180 067049 051 041 006 01
142100 1820N 08502W 8431 01477 9981 +180 +180 068047 048 042 008 01
142130 1821N 08503W 8430 01483 //// +165 //// 072051 052 043 009 01
142200 1822N 08505W 8429 01487 //// +173 //// 073050 052 041 007 01
142230 1824N 08506W 8430 01491 //// +178 //// 073050 051 040 006 01
142300 1825N 08507W 8429 01495 //// +175 //// 075051 053 041 006 01
142330 1826N 08509W 8427 01499 0011 +180 +180 076051 052 041 006 01
142400 1828N 08510W 8431 01501 //// +174 //// 080055 056 039 007 01
142430 1829N 08511W 8433 01503 //// +173 //// 078053 055 040 006 01
142500 1830N 08513W 8430 01509 //// +170 //// 077052 053 039 006 01
142530 1832N 08514W 8424 01519 0032 +180 +180 075050 052 038 006 01
142600 1833N 08516W 8429 01521 0036 +170 +170 076052 053 035 005 01
142630 1834N 08517W 8425 01528 0038 +170 +170 077052 052 030 006 01
142700 1836N 08519W 8424 01531 0043 +170 +170 080054 055 030 005 01
$$

[JamesCaneTracker]

So it seems Recon is finding the Highest Flight level winds so far in the NorthEast quad... For some strange reason Ernesto just refuses to allow his winds to get caught up to the Pressure... That Pressure SHOULD be that of a Hurricane NOT a tropical Storm!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

[Portastorm]

I'm probably asking for trouble using the NESDIS AVN satellite loop as my guide, but Ernesto does seem a bit north of forecast points this morning.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071436
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120807
142730 1837N 08520W 8436 01522 0047 +170 +170 077050 053 028 006 01
142800 1839N 08522W 8418 01542 0052 +170 +170 080050 051 029 005 01
142830 1841N 08524W 8432 01531 0055 +160 +160 078048 050 030 006 01
142900 1842N 08525W 8434 01532 0059 +160 +160 080047 049 028 006 01
142930 1844N 08527W 8433 01532 0060 +160 +160 080046 046 025 005 01
143000 1845N 08529W 8431 01536 0064 +160 +160 080047 048 028 006 01
143030 1847N 08530W 8428 01542 0065 +160 +160 081047 049 026 006 01
143100 1848N 08532W 8430 01540 //// +149 //// 078049 050 025 006 01
143130 1850N 08534W 8429 01543 0068 +160 +160 079047 049 025 005 01
143200 1852N 08535W 8428 01547 0069 +166 +165 080045 046 025 005 00
143230 1853N 08537W 8429 01546 0070 +167 +164 079046 046 025 005 00
143300 1855N 08539W 8426 01552 0071 +168 +160 077043 047 027 005 00
143330 1856N 08540W 8430 01549 0076 +160 +160 078044 045 028 005 01
143400 1858N 08542W 8429 01552 0075 +160 +160 080042 044 028 006 01
143430 1859N 08543W 8433 01548 0076 +169 +163 083042 042 029 005 00
143500 1901N 08545W 8428 01554 0079 +166 +158 084040 041 030 005 00
143530 1902N 08547W 8429 01553 0078 +170 +158 086041 042 030 006 00
143600 1904N 08548W 8430 01553 0081 +165 +160 087042 042 030 006 00
143630 1906N 08550W 8433 01554 0080 +173 +157 077042 043 030 006 00
143700 1907N 08552W 8427 01559 0082 +168 +162 079042 044 031 006 00
$$

[artist]

[artist]

I'm probably asking for trouble using the NESDIS AVN satellite loop as my guide, but Ernesto does seem a bit north of forecast points this morning.

[Kingarabian]

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
PACIFIC.

[tolakram]

Convection still firing. Will Ernesto take a break for lunch?

[artist]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 071444
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/14:15:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
084 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1327 m
D. 51 kt
E. 143 deg 15 nm
F. 207 deg 57 kt
G. 141 deg 20 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 15 C / 1518 m
J. 21 C / 1512 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 13:02:00Z

[drezee]

00
URNT15 KNHC 071446
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120807
143730 1909N 08553W 8432 01557 0081 +173 +159 082039 041 035 006 00
143800 1910N 08555W 8430 01560 0084 +170 +161 082039 040 035 006 03
143830 1911N 08557W 8425 01567 0085 +170 +162 079040 041 038 005 00
143900 1912N 08559W 8431 01561 0087 +168 +157 082044 045 037 001 00
143930 1913N 08601W 8430 01563 0087 +171 +150 082046 046 035 002 00
144000 1915N 08603W 8441 01551 0086 +172 +152 083045 047 033 003 00
144030 1916N 08604W 8428 01562 0085 +169 +162 082045 045 030 002 00
144100 1918N 08606W 8431 01559 0085 +170 +170 082042 044 029 003 01
144130 1919N 08607W 8430 01560 0086 +170 +170 079044 045 030 003 05
144200 1921N 08608W 8425 01567 0085 +170 +170 081038 044 020 008 05
144230 1920N 08610W 8428 01567 0087 +170 +170 079035 037 /// /// 05
144300 1919N 08610W 8433 01558 0084 +175 +173 078036 036 020 005 00
144330 1917N 08610W 8432 01558 0083 +174 +168 077038 040 026 005 00
144400 1915N 08610W 8418 01574 0085 +170 +169 072038 040 021 006 00
144430 1913N 08610W 8429 01562 0088 +170 +170 076040 041 023 006 01
144500 1911N 08610W 8429 01563 0088 +170 +170 075035 040 024 006 01
144530 1909N 08610W 8429 01561 0085 +170 +170 072035 037 026 006 05
144600 1907N 08610W 8432 01558 0083 +173 +163 071037 038 026 006 00
144630 1905N 08609W 8428 01562 0084 +170 +170 073033 037 027 006 01
144700 1903N 08609W 8432 01555 0083 +170 +170 073030 031 026 007 01
$$

[drezee]

I have to go , artist.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 071455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT
SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY
PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE STORM. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST ARE REQUIRED. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 18.1N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.6N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[artist]

latest vortex upper left

[artist]

38

[Sanibel]

Best form yet. Pulling-in those thick bands and filling-in the clear gaps.

[Bocadude85]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 071455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[artist]

I have to go , artist.

thanks for your help!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071456
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120807
144730 1901N 08608W 8432 01559 0085 +160 +160 069032 033 029 006 01
144800 1859N 08607W 8432 01556 0083 +169 +164 070032 033 025 004 03
144830 1857N 08607W 8426 01559 0084 +166 +165 067034 035 023 005 03
144900 1855N 08607W 8430 01556 0083 +160 +160 067034 035 026 006 01
144930 1853N 08607W 8429 01555 0083 +160 +160 067035 035 026 006 01
145000 1851N 08607W 8428 01557 0084 +160 +160 068034 034 028 006 01
145030 1849N 08608W 8429 01552 //// +154 //// 063033 034 027 007 01
145100 1847N 08609W 8436 01547 0080 +160 +160 063032 034 025 007 05
145130 1844N 08609W 8427 01556 0080 +160 +160 063031 033 014 006 01
145200 1842N 08609W 8428 01553 0079 +160 +160 060031 032 015 006 01
145230 1840N 08608W 8430 01552 0079 +160 +160 060028 030 022 005 01
145300 1838N 08608W 8429 01550 0078 +160 +160 054027 028 019 005 05
145330 1836N 08608W 8430 01552 0076 +170 +170 047027 027 023 006 01
145400 1834N 08608W 8430 01550 0074 +167 +165 046027 027 023 005 00
145430 1832N 08608W 8429 01551 0074 +167 +165 045027 028 021 006 00
145500 1829N 08608W 8430 01546 //// +159 //// 041030 033 020 007 01
145530 1827N 08609W 8439 01539 0069 +170 +166 041030 033 023 006 00
145600 1825N 08609W 8432 01542 //// +158 //// 034031 033 021 008 01
145630 1823N 08610W 8441 01534 //// +151 //// 037028 031 022 010 01
145700 1821N 08610W 8426 01549 0067 +160 +160 032025 026 019 013 05
$$

[artist]