ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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littlevince
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#4241 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:40 am

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071536
XXAA 57158 99182 70851 04585 99987 27010 22005 00614 ///// /////
92577 23804 29001 85318 21007 11503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81518
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 SPL 1825N08509W 1520 MBL WND 25004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22501
987843 WL150 22006 084 REL 1825N08509W 151819 SPG 1825N08509W 152
006 =
XXBB 57158 99182 70851 04585 00987 27010 11850 ///// 22843 /////
21212 00987 22005 11967 24008 22915 00000 33855 09003 44843 14004
31313 09608 81518
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 SPL 1825N08509W 1520 MBL WND 25004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22501
987843 WL150 22006 084 REL 1825N08509W 151819 SPG 1825N08509W 152
006 =
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#4242 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:40 am

Sure seems like the movement is more like 305-310 than 295 the last several hours. According to the last 4 VDMs, anyway...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#4243 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:41 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071537
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 43 20120807
152730 1815N 08435W 8432 01512 //// +151 //// 175060 061 049 016 01
152800 1815N 08433W 8427 01520 //// +147 //// 174059 060 049 016 01
152830 1815N 08432W 8429 01523 //// +152 //// 174057 058 046 012 01
152900 1815N 08430W 8430 01523 //// +146 //// 173055 057 048 013 01
152930 1815N 08430W 8430 01523 //// +138 //// 177055 057 047 020 01
153000 1815N 08427W 8429 01531 //// +146 //// 178053 056 046 018 01
153030 1815N 08425W 8433 01529 //// +140 //// 176053 054 046 014 01
153100 1815N 08424W 8428 01534 //// +141 //// 171053 054 042 010 01
153130 1815N 08422W 8436 01530 //// +155 //// 169050 053 040 008 01
153200 1815N 08420W 8422 01547 //// +159 //// 170049 050 039 007 01
153230 1815N 08419W 8434 01535 //// +144 //// 170053 055 039 013 01
153300 1815N 08417W 8429 01540 //// +136 //// 166051 053 045 025 01
153330 1815N 08416W 8429 01542 //// +132 //// 166051 054 044 024 01
153400 1815N 08414W 8420 01552 //// +135 //// 162045 054 045 023 01
153430 1815N 08413W 8433 01541 //// +135 //// 163048 052 048 026 01
153500 1815N 08411W 8423 01553 //// +138 //// 162049 052 040 013 01
153530 1815N 08410W 8431 01546 //// +147 //// 166047 049 040 012 01
153600 1815N 08408W 8430 01550 //// +143 //// 164047 050 041 012 01
153630 1815N 08406W 8430 01549 //// +142 //// 162044 046 042 014 01
153700 1815N 08405W 8425 01555 //// +133 //// 168048 049 042 014 01
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4244 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:42 am

loop (15:15z)

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#4245 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:42 am

Just asking... right now, since technically it is still a TS, is this not the most impressive/beautiful tropical storm you've ever seen?
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#4246 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:43 am

Anybody think he will go against the models and get into the GOM?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4247 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:43 am

Pressure down to 987 on last drop. It is still deepening...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4248 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:45 am

I really don't know why I still bother to expect intensification from Ernesto. It has stayed at 65 mph for approximately 24 hours now and this is not the first such occasion with this cyclone. It stayed between 50 and 60 mph for about 48 hours, despite the forecast for "some strengthening". I am not insulting the NHC or any of their products, but can't they see that it's not intensifying at all? I agree with them 100% that the conditions are favorable for it to become a hurricane and I still think that it might do so before landfall, but that hasn't happened YET. As I mentioned before, many hurricanes have endured through odd and unfavorable conditions - Daniel of 2012 became a Category 3 over 26°C waters, Florence of 2012 strengthened relatively quickly in an environment with moderate wind shear and 27°C waters, Chris of 2012 became a hurricane over 22°C waters, many storms have it a lot harder. On the bright side, however, if it stays at 65 mph, it will have less effects on land (I don't know why I always want storms to intensify, even if they are making landfall).
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4249 Postby stephen23 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:46 am

Is he headed on a almost North track in last frames? My mom lives On isal Mujeres island by cancun. Wanted to let her know if things have changed. At 3am cst he looked like he started moving north.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4250 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:46 am

It is the most impressive Tropical Storm I have ever seen! With the pressure that it currently has and the look of it it should be Hurricane not just a tropical storm! It's certainly been a challenge to Forecast!
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#4251 Postby artist » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:47 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 071541
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/15:18:20Z
B. 18 deg 15 min N
085 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1321 m
D. 39 kt
E. 256 deg 6 nm
F. 346 deg 43 kt
G. 256 deg 6 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 19 C / 1520 m
J. 21 C / 1512 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 20
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 13:02:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 62 KT E QUAD 15:24:40Z
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4252 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:47 am

Tops are warming.


Will it go TS all the way in even with 987 pressure?
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Re:

#4253 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:48 am

wxwatcher1999 wrote:Anybody think he will go against the models and get into the GOM?



No, that door is open right now but "E" is not deep enough to take it.....also that door will be slamming shut soon....


now if E was a 950MB monster cane well you can see the steering for something that deep....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#4254 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:49 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071546
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 44 20120807
153730 1815N 08403W 8425 01558 //// +153 //// 164046 047 040 012 01
153800 1815N 08402W 8429 01556 0085 +160 +160 163038 044 040 012 01
153830 1815N 08400W 8428 01556 //// +147 //// 164044 046 039 012 01
153900 1815N 08359W 8426 01561 //// +157 //// 166043 045 038 011 01
153930 1815N 08357W 8430 01556 //// +154 //// 166044 045 038 011 01
154000 1815N 08355W 8432 01557 0090 +160 +160 162043 045 037 013 01
154030 1815N 08354W 8430 01560 //// +150 //// 159039 042 038 012 01
154100 1815N 08352W 8429 01558 0091 +160 +160 159038 039 038 011 01
154130 1815N 08351W 8428 01561 0092 +160 +160 163037 038 038 010 01
154200 1815N 08349W 8432 01561 //// +156 //// 162038 041 037 009 01
154230 1815N 08347W 8428 01563 0094 +160 +160 164042 042 038 009 01
154300 1815N 08346W 8433 01560 0094 +160 +160 163040 041 036 008 01
154330 1815N 08344W 8425 01567 0094 +160 +160 162042 043 037 008 01
154400 1815N 08343W 8432 01563 //// +160 //// 161039 043 037 008 01
154430 1815N 08341W 8431 01563 //// +148 //// 159041 043 040 012 01
154500 1815N 08340W 8425 01570 //// +150 //// 162046 047 039 010 01
154530 1815N 08338W 8426 01572 //// +155 //// 157044 046 039 010 01
154600 1815N 08337W 8439 01559 //// +151 //// 145044 045 042 014 01
154630 1815N 08335W 8433 01567 //// +135 //// 145046 047 044 015 01
154700 1815N 08334W 8428 01569 //// +133 //// 145045 047 041 014 01
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4255 Postby artist » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:54 am

latest VDM's versus NHC forecast points
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4256 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:55 am

I must say though, and I don't think anyone can deny it, Ernesto's appearance is very impressive. Well-defined outflow and center and excellent rainbands - you must give it that complement!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4257 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:57 am

Here is Tuesday's TCPOD for Wednesday at 2100z and the 9th in the morning at 0900z when Ernesto gets into the BOC.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 07 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
       A. 09/0000, 0600Z             A. 09/1200, 1800Z
       B. AFXXX 1205A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 1305A ERNESTO
       C. 08/2100Z                   C. 09/0900Z
       D. 19.4N 91.3W                D. 19.4N 93.4W
       E. 08/2330Z TO 09/0600Z       E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#4258 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:59 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071556
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 45 20120807
154730 1815N 08332W 8425 01575 //// +143 //// 150046 047 040 012 01
154800 1814N 08331W 8437 01562 //// +135 //// 153048 049 038 015 01
154830 1814N 08329W 8425 01576 //// +146 //// 156047 049 037 011 01
154900 1814N 08328W 8432 01571 0107 +160 +160 156046 047 040 012 01
154930 1814N 08326W 8431 01572 //// +151 //// 154043 044 040 013 01
155000 1814N 08325W 8430 01573 //// +151 //// 151044 046 041 013 01
155030 1814N 08323W 8426 01577 //// +155 //// 149045 046 042 013 01
155100 1814N 08322W 8429 01576 //// +160 //// 154047 048 041 012 01
155130 1814N 08320W 8429 01578 0108 +170 +170 153047 049 040 009 01
155200 1814N 08319W 8425 01580 0110 +160 +160 151048 050 038 009 01
155230 1814N 08317W 8440 01571 0109 +160 +160 147050 051 039 008 01
155300 1814N 08316W 8426 01580 0109 +163 +161 143050 051 039 008 00
155330 1813N 08315W 8432 01576 0108 +165 +155 141048 049 038 008 00
155400 1813N 08314W 8429 01576 0107 +160 +160 140045 047 038 008 01
155430 1812N 08312W 8429 01580 0107 +160 +160 140044 045 038 008 01
155500 1811N 08311W 8430 01579 0107 +170 +170 138046 047 036 008 01
155530 1811N 08310W 8431 01576 0107 +170 +170 139047 048 036 007 01
155600 1810N 08309W 8435 01576 0105 +175 +159 138049 050 036 008 03
155630 1809N 08309W 8428 01584 0107 +173 +150 137050 053 /// /// 03
155700 1809N 08309W 8428 01584 0104 +173 +160 134051 053 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4259 Postby crimi481 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:05 am

Serious jog to North - or N.N.W - seen in last few frames
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#4260 Postby littlevince » Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:10 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071606
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 46 20120807
155730 1810N 08312W 8429 01577 0102 +174 +154 127054 055 040 008 00
155800 1812N 08313W 8433 01573 0104 +160 +160 130052 054 040 006 01
155830 1814N 08315W 8429 01577 0106 +160 +160 132049 051 038 007 01
155900 1816N 08316W 8424 01583 0105 +169 +162 135047 048 038 007 00
155930 1817N 08317W 8436 01571 0106 +165 +165 135048 049 040 006 00
160000 1819N 08317W 8428 01579 0109 +160 +160 138049 049 041 006 01
160030 1821N 08318W 8431 01577 0109 +160 +160 142049 050 040 008 01
160100 1823N 08319W 8430 01576 0107 +166 +164 141050 052 041 007 00
160130 1825N 08320W 8432 01576 0108 +165 +152 137052 052 040 007 00
160200 1827N 08321W 8430 01576 0106 +165 +161 142053 053 041 008 00
160230 1828N 08322W 8432 01575 0107 +160 +160 143053 056 041 007 01
160300 1830N 08323W 8429 01575 0105 +160 +160 141059 060 041 007 01
160330 1832N 08324W 8430 01577 0105 +165 +164 140059 061 040 007 00
160400 1834N 08325W 8429 01576 0104 +171 +138 136061 061 039 008 00
160430 1836N 08326W 8431 01575 0104 +173 +127 135060 061 039 007 00
160500 1838N 08327W 8428 01579 0103 +175 +127 137061 062 041 007 00
160530 1840N 08328W 8432 01574 0104 +174 +129 138061 062 040 007 00
160600 1842N 08329W 8433 01572 0103 +173 +125 136060 061 042 006 00
160630 1844N 08330W 8429 01577 0103 +174 +127 135059 060 041 005 00
160700 1846N 08331W 8433 01573 0104 +170 +137 135058 059 039 006 00
$$
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