ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Live loop, still building convection: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071616
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 47 20120807
160730 1848N 08332W 8424 01580 0105 +167 +133 135059 060 037 006 00
160800 1850N 08333W 8433 01571 0103 +171 +128 134060 061 037 006 00
160830 1851N 08334W 8432 01573 0105 +169 +142 135059 060 036 007 00
160900 1853N 08335W 8425 01580 0106 +165 +152 135058 059 038 007 00
160930 1855N 08336W 8431 01574 0105 +164 +153 134059 059 036 007 00
161000 1857N 08337W 8429 01576 0106 +165 +152 134059 060 039 006 00
161030 1859N 08338W 8430 01573 0104 +165 +148 134059 059 038 007 00
161100 1901N 08339W 8431 01572 0105 +165 +151 136059 059 040 007 00
161130 1903N 08340W 8426 01580 0105 +166 +152 137060 060 040 006 00
161200 1905N 08341W 8428 01575 0105 +167 +142 135061 061 038 008 00
161230 1907N 08342W 8433 01574 0105 +168 +143 133061 061 039 007 00
161300 1908N 08343W 8425 01579 0104 +167 +143 133059 060 039 007 00
161330 1910N 08344W 8426 01578 0106 +163 +151 133059 059 038 007 00
161400 1912N 08344W 8429 01574 0108 +160 +160 132060 060 040 008 01
161430 1914N 08345W 8433 01571 0110 +160 +160 132059 060 040 008 01
161500 1916N 08346W 8422 01581 0109 +150 +150 130060 061 040 008 01
161530 1918N 08347W 8434 01568 0110 +160 +160 130059 061 038 009 01
161600 1920N 08348W 8432 01573 0109 +160 +160 131059 061 037 009 01
161630 1922N 08349W 8432 01576 0108 +150 +150 132053 058 037 009 01
161700 1924N 08350W 8461 01543 0107 +160 +160 131058 060 039 008 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

Another view, large image.

[HurricaneRobert]

Track is similar to Hurricane Stan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Stan

[Stormlover2012]

this thing looking like its moving nnw

[Weatherfreak000]

I concur, that is without a doubt a serious NNW jog.....the significance of this development could be huge.....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

I concur, that is without a doubt a serious NNW jog.....the significance of this development could be huge.....

Woah now. Recon is IN the system, so look at what they are finding. Last VDM showed what may be the expected west turn. Until we have a clear eye, IF we ever do, best rely on recon or Microwave data.

from recon thread:



This is as up to date as the images and loops.

[KWT]

Recon also nicely shows that jog, motion is about 305 at the moment. Wonder if the deeper convection that is developing and the deepening of the system is helping to draw it towards that weakness for a little while?

[tropicwatch]

"wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Anybody think he will go against the models and get into the GOM? "

Unless there is a drastic change in the steering currents, it doesn't seem likely.



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[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071626
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 48 20120807
161730 1925N 08351W 8422 01582 0107 +160 +160 131059 060 037 008 01
161800 1927N 08352W 8432 01574 0107 +161 +157 131059 060 037 008 00
161830 1929N 08353W 8428 01577 0107 +163 +149 131059 059 037 007 00
161900 1931N 08354W 8432 01573 0107 +162 +153 132059 060 037 008 00
161930 1933N 08355W 8429 01576 0106 +160 +160 130059 060 035 008 01
162000 1935N 08356W 8426 01580 0107 +161 +159 129060 060 038 007 00
162030 1937N 08357W 8431 01575 0107 +163 +155 128061 062 036 008 00
162100 1939N 08358W 8433 01574 0111 +160 +160 130056 061 036 009 01
162130 1940N 08359W 8416 01590 0112 +160 +160 132057 058 038 008 01
162200 1942N 08400W 8430 01577 0108 +162 +157 131058 059 036 006 00
162230 1944N 08401W 8438 01567 0108 +166 +152 129056 059 036 005 00
162300 1946N 08402W 8427 01583 0108 +169 +144 127053 055 037 006 00
162330 1948N 08402W 8429 01579 0109 +168 +140 125058 059 039 007 00
162400 1950N 08403W 8435 01579 0113 +167 +155 128057 059 040 006 03
162430 1951N 08402W 8425 01589 0113 +168 +158 134051 056 /// /// 03
162500 1951N 08401W 8430 01584 0114 +165 +160 132049 051 /// /// 03
162530 1950N 08401W 8429 01578 0111 +167 +147 126052 052 036 007 00
162600 1948N 08402W 8430 01582 0110 +167 +136 128052 052 036 007 00
162630 1947N 08402W 8432 01579 0110 +170 +139 131052 052 033 007 00
162700 1946N 08402W 8426 01582 0110 +165 +145 132052 052 034 007 00
$$
;

[Weatherfreak000]

Recon also nicely shows that jog, motion is about 305 at the moment. Wonder if the deeper convection that is developing and the deepening of the system is helping to draw it towards that weakness for a little while?

Appears likely, depends how much stronger Ernie may get...

[crimi481]

Several Jogs to N.N.W.
Appears will probaly miss next Forc Point

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by

[tolakram]

Some extrapolations.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071636
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 49 20120807
162730 1944N 08403W 8427 01581 0111 +150 +150 131052 053 033 007 01
162800 1943N 08403W 8435 01571 0109 +163 +156 131053 054 034 007 03
162830 1942N 08404W 8423 01584 0109 +160 +160 128054 054 036 007 01
162900 1940N 08406W 8430 01574 0110 +160 +160 129054 056 035 009 01
162930 1939N 08407W 8433 01570 0108 +160 +160 128056 058 035 007 01
163000 1938N 08408W 8427 01576 0105 +161 +151 131058 059 032 007 00
163030 1937N 08409W 8426 01576 0104 +160 +160 131055 056 032 008 01
163100 1936N 08411W 8432 01572 0106 +160 +160 130052 057 033 009 01
163130 1935N 08412W 8435 01565 0103 +160 +158 129056 061 033 009 00
163200 1934N 08413W 8437 01565 0103 +162 +148 127061 062 035 009 00
163230 1932N 08414W 8423 01575 0106 +155 +154 126060 061 039 008 00
163300 1931N 08415W 8431 01568 0104 +150 +150 126057 060 038 008 01
163330 1930N 08417W 8425 01571 0098 +163 +145 130058 059 037 008 00
163400 1929N 08418W 8434 01559 0099 +160 +160 130057 058 039 008 01
163430 1928N 08419W 8425 01570 0097 +160 +160 129057 059 037 010 01
163500 1927N 08420W 8428 01567 0093 +165 +157 128056 058 039 009 00
163530 1925N 08422W 8431 01564 0094 +160 +160 126056 057 042 009 01
163600 1924N 08423W 8427 01565 0093 +163 +159 126057 057 041 009 00
163630 1923N 08424W 8423 01568 0092 +160 +160 124054 056 044 010 01
163700 1922N 08425W 8434 01558 0090 +164 +164 125058 059 046 009 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

I need another VDM before I bite on the NNW jump....sometimes the convection can play tricks on the eyes....does look like it though...

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071646
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 50 20120807
163730 1921N 08427W 8425 01567 0089 +166 +162 126055 058 047 009 00
163800 1920N 08428W 8433 01556 0090 +160 +160 129051 054 047 009 01
163830 1919N 08429W 8434 01556 0084 +160 +160 130052 055 047 009 01
163900 1917N 08430W 8429 01559 0083 +170 +170 131056 059 047 010 01
163930 1916N 08431W 8428 01559 0083 +160 +160 130056 057 047 008 01
164000 1915N 08433W 8429 01559 0085 +160 +160 126057 059 048 007 01
164030 1914N 08434W 8429 01557 0082 +160 +160 124060 061 048 007 01
164100 1913N 08435W 8430 01553 0080 +160 +160 119063 064 047 008 01
164130 1912N 08436W 8432 01550 0081 +160 +160 117062 065 047 008 01
164200 1910N 08438W 8429 01552 0079 +160 +160 119058 060 050 008 01
164230 1909N 08439W 8429 01549 0076 +160 +160 121054 055 049 009 01
164300 1908N 08440W 8432 01546 0074 +160 +160 121053 054 048 009 01
164330 1907N 08441W 8434 01541 0071 +160 +160 125052 052 048 009 01
164400 1906N 08443W 8428 01547 0073 +160 +160 125053 053 048 009 01
164430 1905N 08444W 8425 01549 0071 +160 +160 126052 054 048 013 01
164500 1903N 08445W 8441 01532 0073 +160 +160 126055 057 050 014 01
164530 1902N 08446W 8424 01548 0068 +160 +160 127057 058 046 011 01
164600 1901N 08447W 8428 01540 //// +150 //// 126057 058 049 012 01
164630 1900N 08449W 8436 01531 //// +150 //// 129057 057 049 012 01
164700 1859N 08450W 8426 01538 //// +151 //// 129058 059 048 011 01
$$
;

[Dave]

I need another VDM before I bite on the NNW jump....sometimes the convection can play tricks on the eyes....does look like it though...

Don't bite yet Rock...inbound for another VDM now....just got to get there first!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071656
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 51 20120807
164730 1858N 08451W 8436 01529 0062 +160 +160 127056 057 047 010 01
164800 1856N 08452W 8426 01533 0058 +160 +160 129059 061 047 009 01
164830 1855N 08453W 8426 01534 0054 +160 +160 126059 060 046 009 01
164900 1854N 08455W 8431 01526 0050 +160 +160 127057 060 047 008 01
164930 1853N 08456W 8430 01523 0049 +170 +170 126055 056 048 007 01
165000 1852N 08457W 8434 01516 0043 +160 +160 127055 057 047 008 01
165030 1851N 08458W 8425 01526 0041 +160 +160 128054 054 049 009 01
165100 1850N 08500W 8433 01513 0036 +170 +170 128056 056 051 009 01
165130 1848N 08501W 8433 01511 0032 +170 +170 129058 059 049 008 01
165200 1847N 08502W 8430 01508 0026 +170 +170 132058 059 048 009 01
165230 1846N 08503W 8428 01506 0024 +170 +170 131059 060 048 008 01
165300 1845N 08504W 8429 01503 //// +160 //// 129061 063 049 009 01
165330 1844N 08506W 8438 01490 0018 +170 +170 131062 062 049 010 01
165400 1843N 08507W 8426 01499 0015 +170 +170 130064 065 052 010 01
165430 1842N 08508W 8427 01495 0008 +170 +170 130066 066 052 009 01
165500 1841N 08509W 8416 01504 //// +156 //// 129066 068 055 018 01
165530 1839N 08510W 8438 01468 //// +139 //// 127074 076 058 018 01
165600 1838N 08511W 8416 01482 9983 +150 +150 122075 076 060 018 01
165630 1837N 08513W 8433 01451 //// +150 //// 126078 079 066 028 01
165700 1836N 08514W 8448 01417 //// +151 //// 130082 083 071 040 01
$$
;

[ROCK]

would that be something if "E" does something that none of the models had foreseen and does threaten the US coast? We would have no time to prepare / evacuate....Just sayin...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

VDM 987MB....they are going in for another pass...I dont think they hit center with that last drop...of where I think it is anyway....know shortly..