ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[WxEnthus]

I think we have a Cat 1 at the 2pm update. Or would they issue an advisory sooner given the proximity to land? The tip of the Yucatan is only under warning for a TS and that is likely where the strongest NE winds will be hitting and the highest surge.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071716
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 53 20120807
170730 1838N 08538W 8431 01461 9967 +170 +170 063060 062 053 005 01
170800 1839N 08539W 8429 01469 9974 +177 +175 067065 068 053 005 00
170830 1840N 08540W 8433 01469 9978 +182 +175 071065 069 049 005 00
170900 1841N 08541W 8438 01474 9991 +179 +170 070062 063 048 006 00
170930 1843N 08543W 8426 01491 9997 +170 +170 071058 061 047 008 01
171000 1844N 08544W 8427 01496 9997 +187 +171 072056 056 048 007 00
171030 1845N 08545W 8427 01500 0005 +183 +174 075055 056 049 005 00
171100 1847N 08547W 8426 01505 0012 +170 +170 074054 054 045 007 01
171130 1848N 08548W 8433 01502 0019 +170 +170 073051 054 045 007 01
171200 1849N 08549W 8425 01514 0024 +172 +171 072051 051 045 006 00
171230 1851N 08550W 8429 01512 0027 +170 +170 073051 051 045 004 01
171300 1852N 08552W 8438 01505 0030 +170 +170 074050 051 045 005 01
171330 1853N 08553W 8425 01520 0031 +170 +170 074049 050 045 007 01
171400 1854N 08554W 8428 01521 0036 +170 +170 076049 049 045 006 01
171430 1856N 08555W 8432 01518 0036 +170 +170 078049 049 045 006 01
171500 1857N 08557W 8430 01521 0041 +170 +170 077048 049 044 007 01
171530 1858N 08558W 8434 01519 0040 +170 +170 078047 049 044 006 01
171600 1900N 08559W 8436 01519 0044 +170 +170 078049 050 043 006 01
171630 1901N 08601W 8424 01534 0044 +177 +167 078049 050 044 004 00
171700 1902N 08602W 8435 01524 0047 +175 +161 079048 049 041 006 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Latest extrapolation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

I saw in the latest VDM that D. ( Surface winds) were either measured or estimated at 71 knots. Did they drop a sonde in the max wind band?

.

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)

[Weatherfreak000]

Motion appears to be NW with potentially some NNW jogs as he deepens. Hard to believe he may go inland around Cozumel...alot less time over land and alot more chance to RI again and perhaps feel that weakness??


You can tell it's possible or else a met would be here to tell me no

just kidding.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't have a Topo map for that area...... What's the elevation across the tip and the potential for knocking Ernie down some as it crosses?

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the slow left turn has begun. I would put landfall south of Isla de Techal (looking on map).

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071726
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 54 20120807
171730 1904N 08603W 8427 01534 0047 +178 +162 080047 049 041 006 00
171800 1905N 08605W 8426 01536 0049 +176 +160 079046 047 040 006 00
171830 1906N 08606W 8433 01529 0051 +177 +164 077047 048 041 005 00
171900 1908N 08607W 8429 01536 0055 +172 +167 076047 048 038 007 00
171930 1909N 08608W 8427 01539 0058 +160 +160 078047 048 038 007 01
172000 1910N 08610W 8435 01532 0060 +170 +170 080044 048 038 007 01
172030 1912N 08611W 8432 01537 0061 +172 +167 082041 042 040 005 03
172100 1913N 08612W 8432 01542 0062 +174 +162 085040 042 /// /// 03
172130 1914N 08611W 8428 01544 0062 +174 +164 084039 040 043 007 00
172200 1915N 08610W 8430 01540 0062 +170 +169 085043 046 042 009 00
172230 1916N 08609W 8436 01536 0061 +170 +170 086045 046 043 008 01
172300 1918N 08608W 8428 01544 0063 +171 +168 088047 047 045 007 00
172330 1919N 08607W 8429 01545 0064 +173 +162 093046 047 045 008 00
172400 1920N 08606W 8432 01540 0062 +173 +170 091045 046 043 008 00
172430 1921N 08605W 8433 01540 0066 +170 +165 090048 049 042 008 03
172500 1922N 08604W 8418 01557 0066 +173 +155 088049 049 041 009 00
172530 1923N 08603W 8432 01545 0067 +173 +150 089048 049 044 007 00
172600 1924N 08602W 8429 01547 0067 +172 +168 098051 052 045 006 00
172630 1926N 08601W 8429 01545 0068 +170 +170 099047 050 042 007 01
172700 1927N 08600W 8433 01543 0071 +170 +170 099048 048 044 006 01
$$
;

[TexWx]

I see more W as well....

[Dave]

Brunota look where it dropped...(that's IF the satellite is on target too).

[tolakram]

Live loop, 30 frames of rapid scan, with one dropped frame.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071736
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 55 20120807
172730 1928N 08559W 8426 01552 0069 +172 +166 096047 047 041 007 00
172800 1929N 08558W 8426 01553 0073 +167 +166 096049 049 038 008 00
172830 1931N 08557W 8434 01545 0073 +170 +162 097052 053 039 008 00
172900 1932N 08556W 8424 01556 0071 +172 +158 100052 053 043 006 00
172930 1933N 08554W 8435 01546 0074 +170 +161 102052 052 042 007 00
173000 1934N 08553W 8422 01559 0073 +172 +160 104052 053 042 007 00
173030 1936N 08552W 8430 01551 0075 +171 +158 105051 053 043 007 00
173100 1937N 08551W 8431 01553 0077 +170 +162 105050 053 041 008 00
173130 1938N 08550W 8428 01555 0080 +166 +159 107053 053 041 008 00
173200 1940N 08549W 8426 01559 0083 +165 +160 105052 052 042 007 00
173230 1941N 08548W 8426 01559 0084 +164 +160 105054 055 041 008 00
173300 1942N 08546W 8432 01557 0082 +167 +160 105054 054 044 006 00
173330 1944N 08545W 8435 01552 0083 +168 +163 105054 054 042 007 00
173400 1944N 08545W 8435 01552 0080 +160 +160 105055 055 040 007 01
173430 1946N 08543W 8421 01564 0083 +160 +160 107054 056 040 008 01
173500 1947N 08542W 8436 01551 0083 +165 +159 106054 054 037 008 00
173530 1948N 08541W 8429 01556 0083 +165 +157 106052 054 038 009 00
173600 1949N 08540W 8426 01560 0084 +165 +160 109052 053 039 009 00
173630 1951N 08539W 8414 01571 0085 +162 +157 110052 054 039 010 03
173700 1952N 08538W 8032 01973 0085 +147 +143 111056 056 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

I don't have a Topo map for that area...... What's the elevation across the tip and the potential for knocking Ernie down some as it crosses?

The Yucatan is a plateau composed mostly of limestone and with elevations varying by less than 500 feet or so.

[Sanibel]

They must be waiting until 2pm to declare.


Notice the structure change with the band going into the core.

[Weatherfreak000]

Still looks NW to me....in fact, last frame almost looks like another NNW jog....looks to be coming in just south of Cozumel......

[Texashawk]

According to the VDMs, Ernesto is still chugging along at about 305-310. When in doubt, follow the white dots...

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Texashawk]

Since the upper atmosphere does look favorable for a more NW turn should Ernesto bomb out, do you think the mets have allowed for that possibility?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

No more model runs being posted for Ernesto?!

[Hurricaneman]

Recon is heading back to base