ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Texashawk]

So if Ernesto can get to about a strong Cat 2/low-end Cat 3.... things might get... interesting, to say the least.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=

[Texashawk]

Awww... just when it was getting good!!! I guess they have to stop for fuel sometime....

[Aric Dunn]

it a hurricane now

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow. Ernie sure looks great now. Look at that intense core he just developed.....could make a run for cat 2 or 3....guess he has about 8-12 hours left until inland? Impressive.

[Extratropical94]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
[...]
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071746
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 56 20120807
173730 1953N 08537W 7612 02422 0072 +130 +122 110055 056 /// /// 03
173800 1955N 08536W 7300 02779 0070 +113 +107 111052 054 /// /// 03
173830 1956N 08535W 7015 03117 0074 +094 +084 112046 049 037 007 00
173900 1957N 08534W 6961 03184 0078 +090 +077 113047 047 039 006 00
173930 1958N 08532W 6955 03191 0079 +090 +070 114047 048 039 006 00
174000 2000N 08531W 6967 03179 0079 +094 +069 113046 047 038 006 00
174030 2002N 08529W 6966 03179 0080 +090 +073 115047 047 034 008 00
174100 2003N 08528W 6957 03185 0081 +089 +072 114046 047 036 006 00
174130 2005N 08526W 6634 03590 0077 +078 +050 114044 046 033 007 00
174200 2006N 08525W 6361 03945 0074 +061 +036 113042 044 034 007 00
174230 2008N 08524W 6182 04181 0078 +046 +021 111040 041 033 007 00
174300 2009N 08523W 6028 04389 0052 +043 +020 106043 044 031 007 00
174330 2011N 08522W 5865 04590 0038 +028 +014 106047 048 030 007 03
174400 2012N 08522W 5711 04805 0046 +010 +010 106052 054 035 009 01
174430 2014N 08524W 5556 05040 0050 +000 +000 101047 054 036 009 01
174500 2016N 08526W 5358 05329 0270 -014 -016 091043 045 036 007 00
174530 2017N 08528W 5165 05623 0291 -020 -020 084043 045 034 008 01
174600 2019N 08529W 4990 05899 0312 -040 -040 080047 049 034 007 05
174630 2020N 08531W 4840 06135 0329 -050 -050 083041 047 034 008 01
174700 2022N 08532W 4691 06387 0345 -065 -065 082045 047 032 009 00
$$
;

[WeatherGuesser]

The Yucatan is a plateau composed mostly of limestone and with elevations varying by less than 500 feet or so.

So, if Ernie spins up enough, he won't even notice the speed bump. Question becomes one of direction and if he hangs a left or not.

[Texashawk]

Watch yourself, Cancun. This thing may get a little closer than you thought... and put you in that northern eye wall if it gets too close!

[SunnyThoughts]

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[N2Storms]

[quote="WeatherGuesser"][quote="Dave"]The Yucatan is a plateau composed mostly of limestone and with elevations varying by less than 500 feet or so.[/quote]


So, if Ernie spins up enough, he won't even notice the speed bump. Question becomes one of direction and if he hangs a left or not.[/quote]



IMO the NHC has a real good handle on this...I don't we're going to see any major surprises with regards to direction. Maybe intensity but not direction...

[Kingarabian]

I'll gladly help with the next mission.

[Dave]

Awww... just when it was getting good!!! I guess they have to stop for fuel sometime....

Looks like we've got a little time to relax now....

Tuesday's TCPOD for Wednesday at 2100z and the 9th in the morning at 0900z when Ernesto gets into the BOC.

[Texashawk]

how..... interesting; perhaps Mexico does not quite trust the landfall prediction, or is this made in conjunction with the NHC? Either way, it's telling.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

[Weatherfreak000]

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

[knotimpaired]

There are no cargo ships/tankers anywhere near the Yucatan.

There are 19 that are anchored/berthed in Veracruz, Mexico and the next I see them is at at Puerto Cortez in Honduras. There are 14 there.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
AND TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1800Z 18.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Portastorm]

how..... interesting

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

They (Mexican government) had to given Ernesto's clear path of being slightly north of the forecast points. But as weatherfreak pointed out, any slight deviation in track now will have dramatic implications for highly populated tourist areas along the northeastern Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

[tolakram]

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

We have numerous recon VDM's and I extrapolated the movement. What exactly are you seeing?