ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Texashawk]

Exactly. It's all about the angle. I find it hard to believe objectively that the track will deviate too much more, but... seeing is believing, I suppose. I wish recon was still around right now!

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

[Dave]

I figure we're going to have enough missions yet this year to drive everyone who wants to work recon bananas. Check in when you can work, let us know here on the discussion thread and when someone gets tired or has to leave they'll let everyone know either here or on the main recon thread. One note, when someone is working recon they get into a routine and it can be distracting if they have to stop and grab a PM or answer someone, that's why we have this thread over here.....btw that includes us Mods too.

[Extratropical94]

Am I seeing this right that we won't have any more recon flights before landfall?

[tolakram]

Here's my plot again.

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The lower line is the last 3 points. If anything it is starting to move more west. I think the talk of moving more north is overblown. IMO

[JamesCaneTracker]

Looks like a non-tasked mission took off. Might be headed toward Ernesto!

[Dave]

Am I seeing this right that we won't have any more recon flights before landfall?

From todays TCPOD's nothing more until it exits the Yucatan. I "thought" I saw one for 2015 Z tonight from yesterday but looks like they've changed that figuring Ernesto would be to close to shore by then. I'm going to watch though just in case one does come up.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like a non-tasked mission took off. Might be headed toward Ernesto!

Are ya sure it isn't a training mission? Which way is the plane headed?

[Dave]

Looks like a non-tasked mission took off. Might be headed toward Ernesto!

This is from the last dropsonde on the non tasked missio James:

"Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)"

They're up in the Bahama region now.

It's a training mission...WXWXA from the last drop:

61616 AF309 WXWXA 120807152422309 OB 08

[WxEnthus]

There are no cargo ships/tankers anywhere near the Yucatan.

There are 19 that are anchored/berthed in Veracruz, Mexico and the next I see them is at at Puerto Cortez in Honduras. There are 14 there.

In the wee hours last night as I was posting the latest recon images I noticed a ship underneath southeast convection of Ernesto, just a bit shy of the center. I thought, what on earth is that ship doing out there? I almost took a screen shot.

[Portastorm]

I think the talk of Ernesto being further north from here on out is more speculative and not definitive. Folks, including myself, are just saying that at this point and this close to landfall, any deviations from track ... especially further north ... would have more dramatic impacts. Don't think anyone as of the last hour or two is implying a northward movement.

[Texashawk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html

Still chugging NW. Better turn due west soon if it wants to make even the new forecast points!

[wxman57]

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

Nothing too drastic. Ernesto was expected to jog NW in response to the upper low dropping into the BoC. But the upper low is moving out to the SW and the ridge is rebuilding across the northern Gulf. The NW jog does mean final landfall in the western BoC will be a little farther north, but well south of Tampico.

[SoupBone]

how..... interesting; perhaps Mexico does not quite trust the landfall prediction, or is this made in conjunction with the NHC? Either way, it's telling.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

In what way is it telling? The Mexican government has issued warnings in conjunction with an impending landfall. I don't see what you're trying to suggest.

[Texashawk]

how..... interesting; perhaps Mexico does not quite trust the landfall prediction, or is this made in conjunction with the NHC? Either way, it's telling.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

In what way is it telling? The Mexican government has issued warnings in conjunction with an impending landfall. I don't see what you're trying to suggest.

That the forecast landfall has changed from this morning, and they couldn't wait any longer to respond to see if it was a wobble or a trend.

[KWT]

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

Nothing too drastic. Ernesto was expected to jog NW in response to the upper low dropping into the BoC. But the upper low is moving out to the SW and the ridge is rebuilding across the northern Gulf. The NW jog does mean final landfall in the western BoC will be a little farther north, but well south of Tampico.

Whilst it may not mean too much, any bit further north increases the probable strength of a 2nd landfall by giving the system both more time over water both this side and the other side of the Yucatan, taking it over lower ground and finally take it further away from land on the BoC thus limiting the land interaction.

The GFDL has done a good job with forecasting this quick strengthening today.

[CrazyC83]

Tracks are notoriously fickle. Always the rule is to expect the unexpected. That is especially true when hitting the coastline at an angle...look at Charley for example.

[knotimpaired]

Anything is possible as far as track goes but right now the NHC cone has it going in the Sian Ka'am Preserve which is about 1.3 million acres. It takes up about a third of the Yucatan.

Virtually no one lives there (about 2,000 people) that is the good news, bad news is that the flora and fauna will certainly suffer and that is what the area is known for.

[wxwatcher1999]

Am I correct by saying even if he was to get in the GOM he would be sent west fast?

[wxman57]

Any more north jogs from this point out is pivotal in causing a drastic track change. The farther up the Yucatan tip the less land interaction he will face.

Nothing too drastic. Ernesto was expected to jog NW in response to the upper low dropping into the BoC. But the upper low is moving out to the SW and the ridge is rebuilding across the northern Gulf. The NW jog does mean final landfall in the western BoC will be a little farther north, but well south of Tampico.

Whilst it may not mean too much, any bit further north increases the probable strength of a 2nd landfall by giving the system both more time over water both this side and the other side of the Yucatan, taking it over lower ground and finally take it further away from land on the BoC thus limiting the land interaction.

The GFDL has done a good job with forecasting this quick strengthening today.

Yep, that's true. Good chance of regaining hurricane strength in the BoC. But it also means moving inland in a less populated region between Tampico and Veracruz.

[christchurchguy]

center on radar
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop