Some intensity going now in TD 12 with a burst of.........

[dixiebreeze]

red close to or at the center. Probably be a TS by 10 or 11 p.m.

[dixiebreeze]

Here's the link I forgot in the above post:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Josephine96]

Next advisory is at 8... Might even have Henri by 8... It's been raining a bit here this afternoon.. we got 2 rain bands earlier or what I thought were rain bands...

The local network here in the Orlando area also just had a live report from Cedar Key... Very ominous skies on the Gulf of Mexico's shores...

[PTrackerLA]

Yep this one is really close to if not already a TS. The circulation appears to be somewhat oval shaped though.

[Stormsfury]

IMHO, it's already a Tropical Storm and will reflect this on the 8 pm advisory ... based on last RECON earlier, #12 was on the threshold but decided to hold off until the next RECON fix scheduled just before 8 pm tonight.

SF

[Toni - 574]

IMHO, it's already a Tropical Storm and will reflect this on the 8 pm advisory ... based on last RECON earlier, #12 was on the threshold but decided to hold off until the next RECON fix scheduled just before 8 pm tonight.

SF

SF, you may have posted your thoughts on intensity and I have just not read it, so I will ask the question here. What's your thoughts in this area?

[ColdFront77]

The National Hurricane Center mentioned in their 5:00 PM EDT Advisory on Tropical Depression 12 that the system will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Henri at 8:00 PM EDT.

[AussieMark]

TD 12 will be upgraded to Henri in the next advisory after the latest reconnaissance flight has been completed.

[Steve Cosby]

Obviously, it wasn't upgraded.

One of the other "hearsays" I've come across is that home insurance pays differently if a storm is named. True?

Of course, the conspiracy nut rises up and wonders if that has anything to do with naming / not naming...

[wxman57]

Absolutely no evidence yet to support TS intensity. Those bright red areas pointed out on satellite are about 100 miles east of the center. The center is near 27.7N/85.8W and the red blob is at about 28N/84W). Recon just found a 2mb pressure rise and max FL wind of 23kts (west side). They're heading for that ONE heavy squall on the east side now. Sure doesn't look like a TS to me. But perhaps someone can take a look at the latest plot of buoys around the depression and tell me what the justification is for upgrading this depression?

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/td12.gif">

[Steve Cosby]

At least the wind is swirling.

Let me back up: I wasn't suggesting this one should have been named.

[wxman57]

Yeah, the wind is swirling. I like that. I wasn't suggesting that you said it should be named, Steve. But there are those here who have formed an opinion that this is already a TS. I would just like them to point out the evidence to make such a declaration.

We have a great group of people here on this forum. Let's look at each storm objectively. I love coming here because you "guys" don't miss a thing out there in the tropics. But try to ignore the deep-seated pro-storm bias and seek out the facts. I know that's hard for us hurricane nuts who want each one to be the next big one. My job requires me to be very careful what I say, as millions of dollars (and lives) ride on the decisions that have to be made.

Oh, here's the latest supplementary vortex data message (below). The first column of each line contains the observation number and the latitude. Second column is the obs number and the longitude. Middle column is estimated sfc pressure, I believe (10011 = obs #1, 1011mb). Forgot what 4th column is, but the final column is wind direction and speed. Those are flight-level winds. Note the winds on the NW side of the storm are 15-20 kts at 1500 ft. Multiply that by 0.7 to get sfc winds. Not much. Look at the stronger southeast side of the storm on the bottom half of the report. Max FL wind 31kts (22kts at surface). The evidence would suggest that this is a weak TD.

URNT14 KNHC 042338
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01287 10881 10011 12622 35014
02286 20879 20010 22622 36013
03285 30876 30010 32622 36014
04283 40874 40010 42622 01015
05282 50871 50010 52523 01015
06281 60869 60009 62422 36018
07280 70866 70009 72423 36015
08279 80864 80008 82423 01019
09277 90861 90007 92424 01020
MF278 M0863 MF023
OBS 01 AT 2224Z
OBS 09 AT 2301Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 03010
01274 10857 10006 12524 23027
02273 20856 20008 22524 22031
03271 30853 30008 32524 23030
04269 40851 40009 42523 22024
05267 50849 50010 52523 22022
06266 60847 60010 62523 22019
MF273 M0856 MF031
OBS 01 AT 2311Z
OBS 06 AT 2334Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 22020
RMK AF967 0412A CYCLONE OB 04

[Steve Cosby]

Mike Watkins came up with a great Excel spreadsheet to decode the individual observations. I ain't smart enough to do such. But I sure wish somebody could come up with one to do those supplementary vortex messages.

Would be kinda like a "decoder ring" for us wannabes.

[wxman57]

Mike Watkins came up with a great Excel spreadsheet to decode the individual observations. I ain't smart enough to do such. But I sure wish somebody could come up with one to do those supplementary vortex messages.

Would be kinda like a "decoder ring" for us wannabes.

Well, I don't have a decoder ring, but I think I can make it more clear. Let's look at the last line of the first section along with the details at the bottom:

...
...
09277 90861 90007 92424 01020
MF278 M0863 MF023
OBS 01 AT 2224Z
OBS 09 AT 2301Z

Here it is, decoded:

09277 = 09 277 = observation #09 Latitude 27.2N

90861 = 9 0861 = observation #9 Longitude 086.1

90007 = 9 0007 = observation #9 Surface pressure 1007 millibars

92424 = 9 2 424 = observatin #9, 2 indicates 850mb pressure level, 424 = height of the 850mb pressure surface in decameters = 4240 meters.

01020 = 010 20 = wind direction from 010 degrees at 20 kts

Looking at the details at the bottom:

MF278 M0863 MF023

This line designates the lat/lon and speed of max flight level winds (MF). It says:

MF278 = Max Flight level winds 27.8N
M0863 = 086.3W
MF = max FL wind = 23 kts.

For a full breakdown, try this NHC Supplementary Vortex web page:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/supvor.txt

[Steve Cosby]

Thanks! Your discussion was actually more clear than the NHC's version. The only significant thing to add seems to be that the "MF" messages occur at the end of legs (inbound/outbound). At least I think that's what the NHC writeup says.

[Stormsfury]

Tropical Depression #12 doesn't look like a tropical storm anymore ... earlier today, with the 1800z tropical models initializing it, the 1002 mb pressure and the 38kt flight level wind put it very close to tropical storm strength. Obviously, with the convection on the wane, and pressures coming up just a bit. I have to hand it to the NHC for waiting on this one.

Then again, I have to hand it to the NHC always. They showed a lot of restraint today, and IMO, another good call.

SF

[wxman57]

Pressure rising, 20-25kt winds at the surface at the most. Just a weak and very disorganized TD. Here's the final report from the plane:

URNT12 KNHC 050042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/0042Z
B. 27 DEG 38 MIN N
85 DEG 41 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 155 DEG 21 KT
G. 042 DEG 063 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 24 C/ 341 M
J. 25 C/ 345 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. .1/ 4 NM
P. AF967 0412A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 31 KT SE QUAD 2314Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW
1500 FT.

[cycloneye]

With that latest vortex message it will stay as a TDand will be that way until a landfall in the west floridian coast.This afternoon IMO it was a TS briefly with those data observations but since then it has gone downhill and shear is the cause of it to not organize.

[Stormsfury]

Wxman57, see my post above yours.

[ameriwx2003]

Wxman57.. I have just looked at the buoys and found nothing to suggest this is a tropical storm:):)