ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

due west last hour.

The season has really begun - we're wobble watching.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recent images from Belize radar showing Ernesto's eyewall has formed:

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the structure and slight improvement, I would guess that the 21Z advisory should be 75 kt.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[InRRwetrust]

No more model runs being posted for Ernesto?!

Exactly? track across Campeche Bay/SW GOM vital???

[petit_bois]

due west last hour.

The season has really begun - we're wobble watching.

couple more wobbles to the north and I'm topping off the gas tank!!

[ozonepete]

Can we get the link, southdade?

[SouthDadeFish]

Satellite confirms Belize radar:



Here is the link to Belize Radar:

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-static

Here is a site with a ton of links for radars, models, and much more so you don't have to bookmark everything:

http://www.canefever.com/#!links/c2414

[tropicwatch]

:uarrow: Can we get the link, southdade?

They might be going by the Belize radar.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/images/stori ... kmloop.gif

[ROCK]

No more model runs being posted for Ernesto?!

if something would have changed then you would probably see more posting.....right now all the reliable models show the same thing....another MX landfall...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

from last Thursday morning:

hmmm...set up next week will be very interesting for the Gulf if the future Ernesto can make it thorugh the next 48 hrs and continue to consolidate. A strong ridge seems to hold up until mid next week, and then it retreats a bit to the East as a trouch falls in across the middle of the country. It looks like there will be a slight weakness in the ridge as a result of that encroaching trough, and depending on how deep it comes down and its angle/positioning, that could greatly impact the final direction of probable Ernesto for the end of next week/the weekend.
If Ernesto stays weak, the path will remain on the southern side of the current model guidance, and will likely not be impacted at all by those developments to the north, and simply ride into the Yucatan and be Mexico bound, and possibly emerge into the southern BOC before continuing into Mexico or extreme southern Texas.
But if Ernesto slowly ramps up and is a stronger storm and takes a more northerly route to end up just south of Cuba or the Caymans, then a recurve to the North is more likely at that point, as it could be in a position to take advantage of a weakness and be swung to the NW or N. Forward speed then becomes critical for final destination, as a slow mover will eventually be pushed in a more westernly direction sooner as the ridge builds back in. A faster mover will continue more northerly over more water until the returning ridge could turn it towards the west. Impact could be anywhere along the northern gulf, with high SST's and additional strengthening likely.
However, an early Ernesto getting too strong too soon could send him on the suicide path over the mountainous island of Hispanola while the ridge is still strong, and make him much weaker, and unable to fully take advantage of any temporary weakness that may develop. In that weakened state, his path would return to a more westerly route. That could either then allow slow restrengthening as he continues on a more w to wnw path towards the gulf through the straits of Florida if he can avoid Cuba entirely. -but like starting over again as a weak storm/depression from that point forward, but with a returning building ridge that would likely push the storm even further west after getting into the southern gulf (possibly north texas bound). However, if he gets put into traveling Cuba lengthwise, then little would remain but an open wave by the time he made it through the island.
So the true test is how strong is it going to get in the short term, to see where it will be in about 5 days...either slowly strengthening south of Cuba, being weak much further south traversing the southern caribbean, or being pretty strong but taking aim at Hispanola.
My best guess now is that the storm will steadily ramp up and be a hurricane 2 near the Caymans, heading wnw/nw. It will be heading through the yucatan channel as it will feel the slight weakness developing to the north as it slowly rounds the southwestern edge of the retreating ridge and start a more northern route. It will scare the northern gulf coast from panhandle to texas, but the returning building ridge will ultimately move it into northern texas by next Sunday.
TOTALLY my guess this early in the game!!! But that's how I'm thinking about it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm happy with my early synoptic analysis of what it would look like at the middle of this week.--That was was dead on. And my "either/or" option seems to be playing out, based on the weaker storm analogy. I personally though it would strengthen more steadily and shoot the Yucatan channel, which it will not do. But I did nail the possible southern route scenario and path if Ernesto didn't really get its act together for a few more days. So that wasn't so bad for that far out.

[Ivanhater]

Earnie is getting an eye wall
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/images/stori ... kmloop.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Earnie is getting an eye wall

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/images/stori ... kmloop.gif

and a very small one at that. It looks like the circulation is really tightening up, and as long as he doesn't pull a 'classic Ernie' and dramatically fall apart, wherever he decides to make landfall is not going to be getting pleasant conditions...

[SouthDadeFish]

Hot tower?

[SunnyThoughts]

The good thing is that hurricane winds don't extend out very far...so wherever he comes ashore...will only be a small area having to deal with it.

[tolakram]

Latest visible



Live loop (new blowup just starting):

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[SunnyThoughts]

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX

[SunnyThoughts]

Guess this means we'll get more readings before landfall correct?


ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX

[petit_bois]

quite a bit north of Belize

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[tolakram]

Looks to be very close to forecast path.



loop