Will TD 12 Turn Into A CAT1 HURRICANE??

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

It is not moving very much?? If so, before or after Florida?? Anyone got any opinions.....

[wrkh99]

Joe b seems to think that it has a chance

[Lindaloo]

Hopefully not!! But anything is possible.

[ColdFront77]

The steering pattern is slow in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as you can tell are very slow and once over Florida (which is relatively flat), Tropical Depression 12 or Tropical Storm Henri could intensify once again when it emerges ito the Atlantic and with the steering pattern remaining slow there.

The way it looks now, this system may not move out to sea like a majority of systems do.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

yuckkyyy...Not what I wanted to hear!

[Pileus]

Where in Charleston?

[wx247]

I don't think it will before it hits Florida... but when it gets into the Gulf Stream just off the East Coast... I think it is possible.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. I just read Joe B's 5 pm update and while he didn't come right out and say it, he is implying a worry it may get stronger then forecast. We will see:):)

[Steve Cosby]

Joe B has a tendancy to say everything. What you kinda have to watch is what he really harps on. In this case, his real worry is that the thing gets off the coast of Florida and stalls on top of the gulf stream thus causing much "wailing and gnashing of teeth" in the meterological community (one of his favorite sayings). The natural extension of that, of course, is intensification due to favorable water temperatures I would presume.

According to this: http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html,
such a scenario could generate a very intense storm.

Question: Will Fabian's passage make any difference? I think Henri is projected to be west of Fabian's track from all sources, isn't it?

[Stormsfury]

Most of the model guidance are offering differing solutions in regards to #12 or the future Henri and the only conclusive idea I have right now is the #12 will likely be a slow mover ... The problem right now is that once Fabian exits and moves out of the picture, a ridge builds in in Fabian's wake and really will complicate matters down the road ...

The ETA offers a stalled situation over Florida, the GFS is more progressive and moves the system along the Eastern Seaboard in 5 days, the UKMET and CMC are bullish on continued tropical development, the GFDL never moves #12 offshore and makes it an inland runner, and the tropical models are quite divergent. WTH?

[Steve Cosby]

Well, I think the humans are basically pulling it across Florida and then up the coast but the point is that nothing is thinking it will approach Fabian's actual path, right?

It must be that <40KT storms/depressions just aren't handled well by any of the models. Until the thing gets wound up good, they just don't seem to handle them well. Agree?

[wxman57]

JB talks of every cumulus cloud in the tropics possibly becoming a storm, so occasionally he will be right about development. That's what he does - looks for any slight possibility of development and talks about it. I enjoy listening to him each morning because sometimes he sees things I may have missed.

Regarding TD 12, it looks pretty darn ragged on satellite this evening, and recon reports pressure rising now - not a sign of hurricane conditions in 24-36 hours at landfall. Latest recon also shows no higher surface wind than 20 kts. I didn't see a buoy report over 20kts all day, and there are a number of them around the TD. If it's going to develop into a hurricane by landfall it better start bombing soon. I doubt it will produce more than 20-30 mph sustained winds over the FL peninsula as it crosses. Once it moves off the east coast, though, it could intensify if it isn't drawn northward and up the front.

[Steve Cosby]

So, do you buy the idea of stalling off the coast of Florida?

The other one that JB talked about a lot was "model mayhem" but that the UKMET jumps on TD 12 on the ATL side and deepens it quickly. He said this model has been real slow on intensification all year. Apparently, it was always behind Fabian even.

[AussieMark]

SST's are warm enough in the Gulf and in the Atlantic along the eastern Seaboard but the thing which will influence how strong future Henri will become is Shear and dry air both of these usually limited strengthening or contribute to weakening.

But i do not expect future Henri to weaken much when it crosses the Florida Peninsula

But i would not say that it will grow into a hurricane i would say strong tropical storm as the strongest intensity it will reach but that is my opinion and anything could happen in a few days

After all people have already learnt from Fabian from AUgust 30 0300 UTC to August 31 0300 UTC fabian winds increased from 75 mph to 125 mph and pressure fell from 987 to 952 that is a 35 mb fall in about 24 hours.

What i am trying to say is that intensity forcasts the NHC has yet to master.

[Steve Cosby]

What i am trying to say is that intensity forcasts the NHC has yet to master.

Just in the last 24-48 hours, they've missed just about significant fluctuation.

But, you can't fault anybody for that - the strength of the storm seems to be the hardest part of the forecasting job and nobody seems to get that right. At least the steering currents are visible and "forecastable", in essence.