ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Stephanie]

If somebody hasn't mentioned it already, the 0000Z Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance mission has cancelled.


You can see from the constant swirl behavior of the CDO this is intensifying. We're going to miss precious pre-shore intensification data.


Who's going to volunteer to run out there with a hand-held barometer? (lol)

Jim Cantore?

[littlevince]

Ernesto hasn't even made landfall yet...

Right, very close, but has not yet made ​​landfall

01:30z

[SunnyThoughts]

eyewall looking mighty fierce

[hurricanes1234]

Making landfall now?

[floridasun78]

Making landfall now?

one hour or so

[EBrads146]

Ernesto is the most beautiful Atlantic storm I have ever seen. I wish we still had visible.


Comparison with a little over a day ago...


Wow.

[Kingarabian]

Best looking Cat.1 I've ever seen...

[WxEnthus]

Ernesto is looking fierce atm! Really wish recon could have gotten in there... or land-based readings could be taken as the eye comes ashore.

[IMG=http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/2643/27090014.jpg][/IMG]

[CrazyC83]

Pressure at Costa Maya down to 987 per a wunderground station, that could be our best report.

[Sanibel]

Storms that dip down to the Pacific for inflow tend to be strong ones. Good thing this didn't have more water and time.


I'm guessing transition to Texas High with the SW dip. Before that it was feeling the distant weakness with the north drift.

[drezee]

Pressure at Costa Maya down to 987 per a wunderground station, that could be our best report.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2012


already TS sustained from the NW

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not sure what I'm seeing here. Either Ernesto has moved SW or northerly shear is suddenly effecting the system.

saved radar loop:



RBTOP loop:


Notice how the cold tops are moving to the south. Radar structure does not look that good either, though that may be distance to the storm.

Regardless, still a little ways to go before landfall, and I doubt very seriously if this is much more than a moderate cat 1 hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the really good satellite but poor radar presentation and adjusted for earlier updates, I would estimate - pending surface data - the landfall intensity to be 80 kt.

[Sanibel]

Landfall near Costa Maya I would say from that radar.


Outside here in SW Florida you would never know there was a hurricane not too far away.

[SunnyThoughts]

Josh from over at americanwx is in Buena Vista Should get some good measurements if and when he is able to relay information.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE
HURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

RADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND
WILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS
IT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS...
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
HIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE
IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...
WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
WIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.7N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO
12H 08/1200Z 19.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/1200Z 19.4N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.7N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[AJC3]

I would be careful judging the strength or structure of the "far side" of the storm opposite the eye wall relative to the the Belize radar. Without knowing the specs of the radar, based on the IR satellite presentation, there is likely some serious attentuation of the beam going on.

[cheezyWXguy]

Landfall near Costa Maya I would say from that radar.


Outside here in SW Florida you would never know there was a hurricane not too far away.

It's too bad ernesto is making landfall, I would have loved to continue to watch his evolution. The last 24 hours have showcased a tremendous transformation and we will never know how strong he really got before landfall, or could have gotten if he had an extra day. If his core can remain relatively in tact over the Yucatan, his trip through BOC may be an interesting one as well.

[Hurricane Alexis]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[cycloneye]

From discussion:

TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO
THIS EVENING.