ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

08/0545 UTC 13.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Gustywind]

Orange Code
Stays at 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080548
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers, back again at 1.0/1.0

08/0545 UTC 13.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 92L
07/2345 UTC 12.6N 33.5W TOO WEAK 92L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080731 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION..CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTION TO GIVE ERNESTO HURRICANE TITLE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N33W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
25W-35W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N32W TO 09N37W.

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z GFS strengthens it to a weak storm then kills it in the eastern Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 8, 2012 5:06 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

EASTERN ATLANTIC

- To the west of that, a disturbance in the "monsoon trough" a few hundred miles west of the African coast has been showing some signs of organization. It seems to have a limited potential to develop, and forecast models aren't gung-ho on this one, though it's August and we're heading into the peak of the hurricane season, and on general principle a system such as this ought to be watched closely until such time that it fizzles

[somethingfunny]

Was anybody able to get the 0z GFS to load all the way out to 384 hours?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Was anybody able to get the 0z GFS to load all the way out to 384 hours?

Yes. It showed pouch 13 making landfall in south carolina.

[cycloneye]

What 92L is doing is cleaning all the sal for the waves that will emerge Africa.

[KWT]

Yep 92L has done a very good job clearing out the last outbreak of SAL. I don't expect this one to develop as its heading into worse conditions near the Caribbean.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

latest visible

[KWT]

Looks like there is some sort of circulation present with that northern area of convection. Not the best looking system though it has to be said.

[Gustywind]

"Yoyo numbers" for 92L, this time decreasing...

08/1145 UTC 13.6N 34.9W TOO WEAK 92L
08/0545 UTC 13.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Gustywind]

Stays at 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081200
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 18N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N35W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
30W-37W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 33W-39W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Aric Dunn]

its is well on its way this morning. look for 40 or 50 % at 2pm if trends continue.

[ConvergenceZone]

its is well on its way this morning. look for 40 or 50 % at 2pm if trends continue.

I agree, and this one appears to be moving westward so far...Might make it to the carib if it develops.

[RL3AO]

In the long run is there any pattern change compared to what happened to Ernesto? Ridge and LL flow looks just as strong near the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 12 and 24 hr movement of 300 deg at 15 kts. Weak LLC on satellite, as well as a few thunderstorms. Looks quite unlikely to develop over the next 24 hrs. I'd give it close to zero chance the NHC will call it a TD/TS by Friday morning.

It's best chance for development may not come for another 7-10 days if it reaches the NW Caribbean or nears the Bahamas.

[Portastorm]

I'm measuring a 12 and 24 hr movement of 300 deg at 15 kts. Weak LLC on satellite, as well as a few thunderstorms. Looks quite unlikely to develop over the next 24 hrs. I'd give it close to zero chance the NHC will call it a TD/TS by Friday morning.

It's best chance for development may not come for another 7-10 days if it reaches the NW Caribbean or nears the Bahamas.

Not saying it is or isn't going to develop, but wouldn't you say the overall atmospheric setup in the WATL and CARIB basin is similar to what Ernesto had? Clearly it is going to have to overcome a lot of dry air in the next few days.