WPAC: HAIKUI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

still a very organized system overland...

[yulou]

JTWC did include these though on their remarks:
"PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DACHEN DAO AND SHIPU
SHOWED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 TO 70 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP
NEAR 970 MB."

btw, do you know how far Dongji is from the landfall point??

76m(250 in.),and it is on an island

comparing haikui and ernesto, haikui has a very impressive radar imagery at landfall than ernesto and a defined eye noted on both IR and VIS...clearly haikui is stronger so i would place haikui's landfall intensity at 95 knots...too bad we don't have recon...it could be stronger....

unfortunately, the stronger of the two has to make landfall in a very populated area...over 100 million people alone...

in my opinion,95kt is a little high.Because the pressure of Haikui when it landfell is only around 965hPa.
u know, Haikui is a big typhoon.And it was from a monsoon trough with a low ambient pressure.
So i think 85kt is enough for Haikui when it landfell.But i believe it could be 95kt before the landfall.
_________________________________________________________

it seems that Haikui will soon connect with the frontal edge.Shanghai,heavy rain is coming!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my video from this evening on this storm and the floods in the Philippines. Some footage out of Shanghai and Manila in there as well, o and also a spot from TyphoonChaser (James) so really good stuff. I hope its useful.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlQf64CNhc[/youtube]

[yulou]

blocking high has disappeared,Haikui will start to turn around soon.
GFS reported that Haikui may attack shanghai again ,then move into East China Sea and underwent extratropical transition over Japan.

[Meow]

It is located near Hubei now.



TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 9 August 2012

<Analyses at 09/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N30°50'(30.8°)
E117°25'(117.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°55'(30.9°)
E116°50'(116.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°55'(30.9°)
E116°10'(116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

[Meow]

Surprisingly, TS Haikui still remained organised overland.

[phwxenthusiast]

it seems that Haikui will soon connect with the frontal edge.Shanghai,heavy rain is coming!

yeah it does look like it's starting to interact with that trough... convection started to fire again, particularly on the northeastern side... unfortunately, Haikui is basically stalled over Anhui more heavy rains here...



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[euro6208]

still a very organized system over china...looks like it might pass over shanghai this time..