ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tropicwatch]

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[brunota2003]

Watch to see if they dropped a sonde in that max wind band...I really hope they did!

[tropicwatch]

not a transient the NE quadrant holds that through several obs.

[JamesCaneTracker]

74 knot flight level winds? Please tell me that is just a transient feature! Quite an area of 60 to 70 knot winds at flight level.

That comes out to about what on the surface? Using a 0.8 reduction would be 60 knots. If it develops convection over that area, those winds will really get down to the surface.

It certainly still has the pressure to be a Hurricane, 993mb to 994mb, or pretty darn close to it!

[Kingarabian]

74 knot flight level winds? Please tell me that is just a transient feature! Quite an area of 60 to 70 knot winds at flight level.

That comes out to about what on the surface? Using a 0.8 reduction would be 60 knots. If it develops convection over that area, those winds will really get down to the surface.

It certainly still has the pressure to be a Hurricane, 993mb to 994mb, or pretty darn close to it!

Yeah but Ernesto has proven that you could have 60mph winds and a pressure of ... 1008mb.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090217
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120809
020830 1954N 09143W 8432 01532 0057 +164 +158 117062 063 037 001 00
020900 1955N 09143W 8431 01534 0057 +167 +154 118061 062 036 003 00
020930 1957N 09143W 8434 01533 0060 +165 +155 118062 063 037 001 00
021000 1959N 09143W 8428 01540 0061 +170 +154 119061 063 036 000 00
021030 2001N 09143W 8429 01540 0063 +167 +155 118063 064 036 001 00
021100 2003N 09143W 8432 01540 0067 +164 +158 118061 063 035 001 00
021130 2005N 09144W 8428 01546 0071 +160 +159 116061 062 033 001 00
021200 2007N 09144W 8432 01543 0074 +160 +160 117059 061 033 000 01
021230 2009N 09144W 8429 01548 0074 +162 +162 117056 057 032 001 00
021300 2010N 09144W 8426 01554 0076 +163 +161 117055 057 032 001 00
021330 2012N 09144W 8426 01554 0077 +162 +161 116053 054 033 001 00
021400 2014N 09144W 8429 01552 0078 +160 +160 115053 053 032 002 01
021430 2016N 09144W 8430 01551 0078 +160 +160 116053 053 031 002 01
021500 2018N 09144W 8429 01550 0077 +165 +160 119052 053 030 002 00
021530 2020N 09144W 8432 01550 0077 +165 +158 119051 052 029 001 00
021600 2021N 09144W 8427 01554 0078 +165 +161 116053 054 032 001 00
021630 2023N 09145W 8433 01549 0080 +165 +162 115055 055 033 000 00
021700 2025N 09145W 8427 01557 0082 +165 +161 115053 055 033 000 00
021730 2027N 09145W 8436 01550 0082 +165 +162 114050 051 032 001 00
021800 2029N 09145W 8427 01558 0082 +165 +162 114050 050 033 001 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Eye dropsonde:

000
UZNT13 KNHC 090217
XXAA 59028 99188 70918 04681 99994 26417 13004 00556 ///// /////
92631 23219 18502 85367 19613 09504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80149
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1882N09175W 0151 MBL WND 17506 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
003 993843 WL150 15005 084 REL 1882N09175W 014919 SPG 1882N09176W
015101 =
XXBB 59028 99188 70918 04681 00994 26417 11850 19613 22843 19012
21212 00994 13004 11955 18007 22903 00000 33855 08005 44843 11504
31313 09608 80149
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1882N09175W 0151 MBL WND 17506 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
003 993843 WL150 15005 084 REL 1882N09175W 014919 SPG 1882N09176W
015101 =
;

994 millibars with 4 knots of wind at the surface...good drop!

[tropicwatch]

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[Kingarabian]

URNT12 KNHC 090219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/01:49:10Z
B. 18 deg 49 min N
091 deg 46 min W
C. 850 mb 1373 m
D. 41 kt
E. 270 deg 64 nm
F. 011 deg 44 kt
G. 270 deg 66 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1520 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT N QUAD 01:59:00Z
OUTBOUND PEAK SFC WIND 56 KTS N QUAD IN VCNTY OF PEAK FL WIND IN FEEDER BAND
;

[artist]

wow on that VDM!

[brunota2003]

Pressure is 994 per dropsonde/VDM...and of note:

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT N QUAD 01:59:00Z
OUTBOUND PEAK SFC WIND 56 KTS N QUAD IN VCNTY OF PEAK FL WIND IN FEEDER BAND

Surface winds are already at 56 knots...only 9 more to go for hurricane force winds. Also, recon passed through nearly that very same area on their way in earlier and they only recorded flight level winds around 50 knots.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 02:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 1:49:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°49'N 91°46'W (18.8167N 91.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 96 miles (155 km) to the NE (53°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,373m (4,505ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 11° at 44kts (From between the N and NNE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OUTBOUND PEAK SFC WIND 56 KTS N QUAD IN VCNTY OF PEAK FL WIND IN FEEDER BAND


[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090227
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120809
021830 2030N 09145W 8429 01557 0081 +165 +161 114051 051 033 001 00
021900 2032N 09145W 8429 01557 0082 +165 +161 114051 051 033 001 00
021930 2034N 09145W 8429 01556 0082 +165 +161 114050 051 033 000 00
022000 2036N 09145W 8428 01560 0083 +165 +161 114049 050 032 002 00
022030 2038N 09145W 8430 01556 0084 +165 +162 111049 049 031 000 00
022100 2039N 09145W 8426 01561 0086 +165 +161 112050 050 031 000 03
022130 2041N 09147W 8423 01565 0085 +165 +165 112047 050 /// /// 03
022200 2041N 09148W 8429 01560 0085 +165 +163 111047 047 030 002 00
022230 2040N 09150W 8425 01562 0084 +165 +162 110048 048 033 001 00
022300 2039N 09152W 8430 01559 0084 +165 +161 111049 049 036 002 00
022330 2038N 09154W 8429 01557 0082 +165 +162 112048 049 035 002 00
022400 2037N 09155W 8430 01556 0082 +165 +163 112049 049 037 001 00
022430 2036N 09157W 8428 01557 0080 +167 +161 112049 049 037 001 00
022500 2035N 09159W 8429 01556 0080 +168 +160 112048 049 035 001 03
022530 2034N 09201W 8430 01552 0079 +170 +160 113048 049 035 001 00
022600 2034N 09203W 8429 01555 0079 +170 +159 111048 049 035 001 00
022630 2033N 09204W 8430 01552 0078 +170 +159 110050 050 035 001 03
022700 2032N 09206W 8430 01552 0077 +169 +159 111050 051 036 001 00
022730 2031N 09208W 8430 01552 0077 +167 +159 110050 051 035 001 00
022800 2030N 09210W 8428 01552 0076 +165 +159 109049 050 034 002 00
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

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[brunota2003]

I was really hoping they got a dropsonde into the max wind band so we could see what the surface winds really were.

As it stands right now, they said 56 knot surface winds on the VDM...so Ernesto has winds of at least 55 knots currently...only 10 (9) knots away from hurricane force! When recon flew near that same area earlier on their way in, the winds were not anywhere near as strong at flight level!

[Annie Oakley]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 090229
XXAA 59018 99188 70929 04682 99003 25616 02037 00025 25619 02037
92710 22223 01047 85444 16202 01044 88999 77999
31313 09608 80128
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1880N09294W 0130 MBL WND 01544 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 01045 002845 WL150 02041 084 REL 1882N09294W 012801 SPG 1880N0
9294W 013003 =
XXBB 59018 99188 70929 04682 00003 25616 11861 19808 22850 16202
33845 14400
21212 00003 02037 11973 01546 22909 01048 33859 01045 44845 01043
31313 09608 80128
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1880N09294W 0130 MBL WND 01544 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 01045 002845 WL150 02041 084 REL 1882N09294W 012801 SPG 1880N0
9294W 013003 =
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

Yeah that's a really impressive VDM for having just made the trip across the YP and just emerging off the coast!

[tropicwatch]

I'm out

[JamesCaneTracker]

Some of the Models had Ernesto bombing out once back over water... If he starts taking his characteristic North-west wobbles as he intensifies he should be over water longer and further away from land so things could get pretty interesting pretty quickly!

[brunota2003]

Corrected:

They got a dropsonde in on the weaker side...44 knots at flight level, 37 knots at the surface (SFMR read 39 knots there). That's a reduction of 0.85, roughly.