Strong wave emerging Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[Cainer]

I remember in either 2007 or 2008, a wave was given a code orange while still over Africa, but then poofed when it hit the water and didn't develop. Maybe that's why the NHC is leery of mentioning them in their TWO's.

[jaxfladude]

I love(to hate)this time of hurricane season...

[cycloneye]

I remember in either 2007 or 2008, a wave was given a code orange while still over Africa, but then poofed when it hit the water and didn't develop. Maybe that's why the NHC is leery of mentioning them in their TWO's.

That was Bertha of 2008. I found this first TWO made as it just emerged for wave that spawned Bertha.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Riptide]

I love(to hate)this time of hurricane season...

Everything looks fine in my opinion, we are still seasonally above average and I expect development from at least one of these waves, either 92L or the African system.

[jaxfladude]

I love(to hate)this time of hurricane season...

Everything looks fine in my opinion, we are still seasonally above average and I expect development from at least one of these waves, either 92L or the African system.

Which is why I do not want anymore named systems, already went thru Beryl and Debby, house nearly got flooded....do not want to go thru a possible third time this season(the big one).

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if this will pull a Christine and develop right out of the gate?

[WYNweather]

Fun fact i found on christine "Christine was monitored by astronauts in the Skylab 3 project. During this project, active and passive microwave satellite imagery was used for the first time to determine the wind speed within a tropical cyclone." we have come a long way from that

[RL3AO]

Near 20N and weak. ULL near 25N/60W

[RL3AO]

96hr - Weak with ULL still near same location.

[RL3AO]

120hr - Still weak. ULL near 28N/62W but appears weaker. Trough approaching eastern US.

[RL3AO]

144hr - Slightly stronger. Still moving west. ULL appears to be gone.

[RL3AO]

168hr - Same intensity. Moving west. Trough near NE US appears to be maturing and getting ready to eject.

[RL3AO]

192hr - Similar intensity. Nearing edge of ridge and appears to be slowing down and starting to feel weakness created by trough over NE US/E Canada.

[Riptide]

Nothing to work with on the GFS tonight; the wave weakens too much because it travels too far north into lower SST's and dry air as soon as it comes off Africa.

[KBBOCA]

The weather station at Kedougou Senegal is reporting again. Pressure 1006 as of 00:00 GMT.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[fci]

I wonder if this will pull a Christine and develop right out of the gate?

Christine was unique in that it was declared a TD at 11.0N - 14.0W.
It literally left the coast as a Strong Tropical Depression.
Until it was brought up in regards to 13L, I never knew that the NWS had actually designated a TD before a system exited Africa.
Fascinating.....

[RL3AO]

I wonder if this will pull a Christine and develop right out of the gate?

Christine was unique in that it was declared a TD at 11.0N - 14.0W.
It literally left the coast as a Strong Tropical Depression.
Until it was brought up in regards to 13L, I never knew that the NWS had actually designated a TD before a system exited Africa.
Fascinating.....

NHC never issued advisories on Christine until it was near the islands. During post season analysis they tracked it back to Africa. Does make me wonder if it really can meet the definition of a tropical cyclone without ever being over water but they must have found enough evidence.

[somethingfunny]

I remember in either 2007 or 2008, a wave was given a code orange while still over Africa, but then poofed when it hit the water and didn't develop. Maybe that's why the NHC is leery of mentioning them in their TWO's.

I remember when this happened, and I've seen some other strong global model signatures fail to materialize as they came off the coast.

Then you have systems like Christine in 1973 and Beryl in 1982, which form practically over Senegal, but never manage to overcome SAL and shear in the Atlantic.

Beryl actually did quite a bit of damage to the Cape Verde Islands, which usually escape tropical cyclone impacts since they're north of the typical track and storms usually don't develop that far east anyway. This P13L is one they need to watch, for sure.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave with Low Pressure introduced by TAFB at 06z surface analysis

NHC at TWO may begin to talk about it today.

[Gustywind]

Ernesto and two Atlantic disturbances

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 9, 2012 12:22 am ET


http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

AFRICA

- A strong tropical wave with a low-level circulation is about to move off the coast of Africa. It could develop into a tropical cyclone when it's over the water, though recent model runs have trended toward being less gung-ho in forecasting that, perhaps because they have it moving WNW to upwards of 20 degrees north latitude, where the air is drier and the water cooler. Previously, model runs had been fairly consistently showing it reaching the United States the week after next; that is beyond the time frame at which there can be confidence in details of a system's track (and that only matters if it becomes a significant storm).