ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

[brunota2003]

Looks like the intensification has halted for now...86 knots again on the outbound leg. Still waiting for dropsonde and VDM.

[JamesCaneTracker]

You can start to see where the center is on the latest IR...

[brunota2003]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090535
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/05:11:10Z
B. 18 deg 47 min N
092 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1374 m
D. 57 kt
E. 335 deg 28 nm
F. 075 deg 85 kt
G. 336 deg 30 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1523 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 05:23:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 319 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the intensification has halted for now...86 knots again on the outbound leg. Still waiting for dropsonde and VDM.

Not too surprising, seeing as convection is starting to wane slightly. Itll need another burst if its going to keep intensifying, but if its on the north side again it may end up shunting southward again onto land. Ernesto is walking a very thin line atm...

[brunota2003]

For eye characteristic, they put "Spiral band"...which is better than just NA.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090537
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 47 20120809
052830 1925N 09216W 8429 01515 //// +137 //// 118066 067 049 015 01
052900 1926N 09215W 8432 01516 //// +145 //// 116066 067 048 013 01
052930 1927N 09214W 8428 01522 //// +141 //// 116064 067 047 011 01
053000 1928N 09213W 8431 01519 0055 +150 +150 115060 062 045 009 01
053030 1930N 09213W 8428 01526 0050 +160 +160 115060 060 047 005 01
053100 1931N 09212W 8430 01523 0051 +150 +150 115060 060 048 004 01
053130 1932N 09211W 8430 01526 0050 +160 +160 115060 061 047 004 01
053200 1934N 09210W 8426 01530 0053 +160 +160 115061 061 046 005 01
053230 1935N 09209W 8429 01532 0057 +160 +160 116059 061 045 006 01
053300 1936N 09208W 8433 01529 0058 +163 +162 115058 058 044 004 00
053330 1937N 09207W 8429 01537 0057 +166 +159 115062 063 044 004 00
053400 1939N 09206W 8428 01538 0060 +167 +158 114063 064 043 004 00
053430 1940N 09206W 8429 01540 0065 +163 +158 114064 064 041 005 00
053500 1941N 09205W 8429 01540 0067 +160 +160 114063 063 041 003 01
053530 1942N 09204W 8429 01539 0066 +160 +160 114062 063 039 004 00
053600 1944N 09203W 8432 01538 0065 +165 +154 114062 062 038 005 00
053630 1945N 09202W 8428 01541 0063 +168 +153 116061 062 039 003 00
053700 1946N 09201W 8430 01540 0063 +168 +154 118061 062 039 003 00
053730 1947N 09200W 8429 01541 0067 +165 +153 119061 061 041 001 00
053800 1949N 09200W 8433 01538 0068 +165 +150 119062 062 041 001 00
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

For eye characteristic, they put "Spiral band"...which is better than just NA.

that observation fits quite well with radar, its pretty close to closing off that eye but its still open on the south side.
http://tropicwatch.info/bocradar.html

[brunota2003]

Well, it is about to have a little more water to work with on the southern side, and convection is expanding on the East and SE sides, and starting to work it's way around like the first one that is now on the NW side.

[brunota2003]

[brunota2003]

Alright...someone else is going to have to pick it up now, if they do another pass...it is [way past] my bedtime!

[brunota2003]

Mission complete:

000
URNT15 KNHC 090547
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 48 20120809
053830 1950N 09159W 8421 01555 0073 +165 +152 119062 063 040 001 00
053900 1951N 09158W 8431 01545 0074 +162 +159 119062 063 039 003 00
053930 1953N 09156W 8429 01549 0075 +163 +158 120062 062 036 002 03
054000 1954N 09156W 8428 01551 0077 +164 +157 119061 062 038 000 00
054030 1956N 09155W 8432 01550 0080 +163 +158 118060 062 038 001 00
054100 1957N 09154W 8432 01551 0081 +161 +159 117060 060 037 001 00
054130 1959N 09153W 8429 01555 0082 +163 +158 116060 060 036 002 00
054200 2000N 09152W 8428 01556 0082 +165 +156 116059 059 036 002 00
054230 2002N 09151W 8429 01556 0083 +165 +154 117058 058 036 002 00
054300 2003N 09150W 8433 01552 0083 +165 +160 116056 056 034 002 00
054330 2004N 09149W 8428 01558 0083 +165 +160 116056 057 034 000 00
054400 2006N 09148W 8434 01555 0085 +165 +161 117056 057 034 002 00
054430 2007N 09147W 8425 01563 0086 +165 +159 117055 056 033 001 00
054500 2009N 09146W 8433 01556 0087 +165 +159 118057 058 032 001 00
054530 2010N 09145W 8427 01563 0088 +165 +158 118059 059 033 002 00
054600 2012N 09144W 8391 01594 0080 +165 +152 117058 059 034 001 00
054630 2013N 09143W 8108 01880 0070 +155 +126 117054 056 032 002 00
054700 2015N 09142W 7739 02268 0058 +135 +114 113051 053 032 002 03
054730 2016N 09140W 7367 02684 0057 +111 +098 112053 054 033 001 00
054800 2018N 09139W 7057 03045 0056 +093 +083 117052 054 032 001 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

2 am update only upped Ernesto to 60 knots.

[brunota2003]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
100 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF PARAISO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...1600 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
WEST...NOW NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND
NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

Getting another flight after all.

000
URNT15 KNHC 090902
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120809
085330 3024N 08855W 0139 00007 0148 +255 +176 360000 000 /// /// 03
085400 3024N 08855W 0139 00008 0149 +255 +176 360000 000 /// /// 03
085430 3024N 08855W 0139 00001 0143 +255 +176 360000 000 /// /// 03
085500 3024N 08855W 0139 00001 0141 +255 +176 360000 000 /// /// 03
085530 3024N 08855W 0139 00003 0144 +255 +177 360000 000 /// /// 03
085600 3024N 08855W 0139 00003 0144 +255 +177 360000 000 /// /// 03
085630 3024N 08855W 0139 00001 0141 +255 +178 360000 000 /// /// 03
085700 3024N 08855W 0139 00002 0142 +255 +178 360000 000 /// /// 03
085730 3024N 08855W 0139 ///// 0139 +255 +179 360000 000 /// /// 23
085800 3024N 08855W 0138 ///// 0135 +255 +180 360000 000 /// /// 23
085830 3024N 08855W 0138 ///// 0139 +255 +180 360000 000 /// /// 23
085900 3024N 08855W 0138 00006 0145 +255 +181 360000 000 /// /// 03
085930 3024N 08855W 0138 00004 0144 +255 +181 360000 000 /// /// 03
090000 3024N 08855W 0138 00006 0147 +255 +181 360000 000 /// /// 03
090030 3024N 08855W 0137 00008 0148 +255 +182 360000 000 /// /// 03
090100 3024N 08855W 0138 00010 0151 +260 +182 360000 000 /// /// 03
090130 3024N 08855W 0138 00012 0153 +259 +184 360000 000 /// /// 03
090200 3024N 08855W 0138 00009 0150 +255 +185 360000 000 /// /// 03
090230 3024N 08855W 0139 00002 0143 +255 +186 360000 000 /// /// 03
090300 3025N 08855W 0139 00001 0141 +254 +187 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 090847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO THIS MORNING...HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 090942
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120809
093330 2853N 08943W 3926 07727 0422 -170 //// 295013 015 /// /// 05
093400 2851N 08945W 3926 07727 0412 -170 //// 295012 012 /// /// 05
093430 2849N 08946W 3925 07729 0412 -170 //// 295012 013 /// /// 05
093500 2847N 08948W 3925 07729 0412 -170 //// 297012 012 /// /// 05
093530 2844N 08949W 3926 07727 0411 -170 //// 291013 013 /// /// 05
093600 2842N 08950W 3925 07729 0411 -170 //// 291012 014 /// /// 05
093630 2840N 08951W 3926 07727 0410 -171 //// 291013 014 /// /// 05
093700 2837N 08952W 3926 07725 0411 -171 //// 288013 014 /// /// 05
093730 2835N 08953W 3926 07728 0411 -170 //// 295014 014 /// /// 05
093800 2833N 08954W 3925 07728 0411 -170 //// 297015 015 /// /// 05
093830 2830N 08956W 3926 07729 0413 -170 //// 295015 016 /// /// 05
093900 2828N 08957W 3925 07731 0414 -170 //// 295016 017 /// /// 05
093930 2826N 08958W 3925 07731 0415 -165 //// 296017 017 /// /// 05
094000 2823N 08959W 3926 07729 0415 -170 //// 293017 017 /// /// 05
094030 2821N 09000W 3926 07731 0415 -170 //// 290017 018 /// /// 05
094100 2819N 09001W 3926 07731 0416 -170 //// 290018 018 /// /// 05
094130 2816N 09003W 3925 07734 0416 -170 //// 286018 019 /// /// 05
094200 2814N 09003W 3925 07732 0416 -170 //// 287017 018 /// /// 05
094230 2811N 09003W 3925 07734 0416 -170 //// 286017 017 /// /// 05
094300 2809N 09003W 3926 07731 0416 -170 //// 288017 017 /// /// 05

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 091002
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120809
095330 2715N 09000W 3925 07736 0419 -158 //// 289015 015 /// /// 05
095400 2712N 09000W 3926 07734 0418 -156 //// 290015 015 /// /// 05
095430 2709N 08959W 3925 07735 0418 -158 //// 293013 015 /// /// 05
095500 2707N 08959W 3926 07733 0418 -160 //// 280010 011 /// /// 05
095530 2704N 08959W 3925 07737 0419 -160 //// 277009 010 /// /// 05
095600 2702N 08959W 3926 07734 0419 -160 //// 272010 011 /// /// 05
095630 2659N 08959W 3926 07734 0418 -160 //// 272010 010 /// /// 05
095700 2656N 08959W 3926 07733 0417 -160 //// 278009 009 /// /// 05
095730 2654N 08959W 3926 07733 0416 -160 //// 280009 009 /// /// 05
095800 2651N 08958W 3926 07732 0415 -160 //// 284010 010 /// /// 05
095830 2649N 08958W 3926 07732 0416 -160 //// 282010 010 /// /// 05
095900 2646N 08958W 3925 07734 0417 -160 //// 285009 009 /// /// 05
095930 2644N 08958W 3926 07733 0417 -160 //// 292009 009 /// /// 05
100000 2641N 08958W 3925 07735 0417 -160 //// 295008 009 /// /// 05
100030 2639N 08958W 3926 07732 0416 -160 //// 295008 009 /// /// 05
100100 2636N 08958W 3926 07731 0415 -159 //// 297008 008 /// /// 05
100130 2633N 08957W 3925 07731 0415 -155 //// 304009 009 /// /// 05
100200 2631N 08957W 3926 07730 0414 -155 //// 308009 010 009 000 01
100230 2628N 08957W 3926 07731 0415 -155 //// 306008 009 010 000 01
100300 2626N 08957W 3926 07731 0417 -155 //// 302008 008 009 000 01