
ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Nikki
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
- Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
So is it TD7 yet or not? I am confused 

0 likes
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
- HurricaneBelle
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1179
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
- Location: Clearwater, FL
Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Windsurfer_NYC wrote:Storm RE-RE-numbered 07 --> 92
invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren
Yes,here is the link to the reversal.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 922012.ren
They must have a new intern who's quick on the trigger over there - yesterday, they accidentally sent out the 5PM discussion on Ernesto an hour early.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
lol thats funny. Its still likely a TD sure they are just waiting for a little more organized convection.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
wxman57 wrote:Was checking model projections for general flow in the Gulf next week and the Euro, GFS, UKMET and to a lesser amount the Canadian all have a weakness in the ridge over the north-central Gulf this weekend as a moderate cold front sweeps through the Grt Lakes and NE U.S. However, by early next week they all build a ridge westward across the central to northern Gulf.
This would indicate a track similar to Ernesto, perhaps even a bit farther south, with a landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua or possibly Belize next Tuesday night/Wed. That's very fast movement, indicating future "Gordon", too, may have issues with vertical stacking in the fast low-level flow.
For now, I don't see any indications of a central to northern Gulf threat.
WXMAN, when do you think this season is going to go back to being normal?? All I
seem to hear about lately is dry air and shear and yet we are going into mid-august with storms that can barely develop.....
I guess September HAS to be really active so I guess we'll just have to wait?
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
hcane27 wrote:Amazing how things change. Not long ago we are hearing that the northern Gulf Coast is "open for business" due to the non-"death ridge" and now it appears as though nothing can get north of Belize due to the existing-"death ridge" ... the more things change , the more they stay the same.
Yea I agree, one of these years, the setup is bound to change, but nobody knows what year it's going to be... For now though, I guess it's just weak systems, lots of dry air and shear and mexico bound storms.
0 likes
Maybe they've reviewed the trends of the last couple of hours and the way the convective coverage has decreased and how the LLC has become exposed and decided against it afterall??
Who knows, it probably does meet the requirements for a TD.
ps, CZ its a weak El Nino season, so it doesn't have to get 'active' at all, with it being El Nino we will probably have a shorter' primetime period, maybe just 2-3 weeks in early September.
Who knows, it probably does meet the requirements for a TD.
ps, CZ its a weak El Nino season, so it doesn't have to get 'active' at all, with it being El Nino we will probably have a shorter' primetime period, maybe just 2-3 weeks in early September.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145307
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re:
KWT wrote:Maybe they've reviewed the trends of the last couple of hours and the way the convective coverage has decreased and how the LLC has become exposed and decided against it afterall??
Who knows, it probably does meet the requirements for a TD.
ps, CZ its a weak El Nino season, so it doesn't have to get 'active' at all, with it being El Nino we will probably have a shorter' primetime period, maybe just 2-3 weeks in early September.
Actually, what you said makes sense KWT, because on the tropical update on the weather channel the other day they mentioned that the tropical activity may die down for good by early to mid september, and I was wondering, really???? That doesn't sound right!! But I missed the beginning of the update, so they could have been explaining the El Nino being the cause. I completely forgot that we usually have real short seasons when there's an El Nino in place, so good call!! So basically any activity we are going to have will probably have to happen in the next 4 weeks or it's all over....
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
ConvergenceZone wrote:wxman57 wrote:Was checking model projections for general flow in the Gulf next week and the Euro, GFS, UKMET and to a lesser amount the Canadian all have a weakness in the ridge over the north-central Gulf this weekend as a moderate cold front sweeps through the Grt Lakes and NE U.S. However, by early next week they all build a ridge westward across the central to northern Gulf.
This would indicate a track similar to Ernesto, perhaps even a bit farther south, with a landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua or possibly Belize next Tuesday night/Wed. That's very fast movement, indicating future "Gordon", too, may have issues with vertical stacking in the fast low-level flow.
For now, I don't see any indications of a central to northern Gulf threat.
WXMAN, when do you think this season is going to go back to being normal?? All I
seem to hear about lately is dry air and shear and yet we are going into mid-august with storms that can barely develop.....
I guess September HAS to be really active so I guess we'll just have to wait?
Who says it has to get busy at all? most people, including wxman have been bearish on the year since the preseason. perhaps we can get a year off. having said that, we are just at the begining of the heart of hurricane season. cyclone activity historically ramps up in august but it does so from a low baseline. we're only about 1/4 of the way up the mountain that starts august 1 and peaks sept 10. then we get to go back down...we've got about 7/8 to go, or put another way, we're midway through the first quarter.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22978
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
I've seen this happen before. I'm sure there was a discussion about whether to upgrade now or later. Initially they may have been thinking "upgrade", but they changed their mind.
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Who says it has to get busy at all? most people, including wxman have been bearish on the year since the preseason. perhaps we can get a year off. having said that, we are just at the begining of the heart of hurricane season. cyclone activity historically ramps up in august but it does so from a low baseline. we're only about 1/4 of the way up the mountain that starts august 1 and peaks sept 10. then we get to go back down...we've got about 7/8 to go, or put another way, we're midway through the first quarter.
Except as KWT mentioned, it's ElNino which could mean a quick short season that can end quickly in early to mid September. I had completely forgot about that earlier.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
wxman57 wrote:I've seen this happen before. I'm sure there was a discussion about whether to upgrade now or later. Initially they may have been thinking "upgrade", but they changed their mind.
These things are pretty rare, but given its losing convective depth and coverage at the moment and the LLC has become exposed, maybe it is a wise idea to hold fire, especially as the models are not at all keen on this system either. If it doesn't make it, I'd guess it'd be a solid post season candidate given its superb presentation overnight as the low level flow increased.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
cycloneye wrote:Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.
did colo release their aug report too?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Blown Away wrote:
Aug 9th 12z dynamic model guidance.
it look like other ERNESTO track
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
floridasun78 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.
did colo release their aug report too?
I assume you mean Colorado State and Drs. Gray/Klotzbach. They released their update last week. Here is a link:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/aug2012/aug2012.pdf
Now, let's get back on topic about 92L, please.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.
What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Re:
KWT wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.
What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.
yeah sal is still around. but compared to yesterday it has improved a lot. less showing up on sat and less milky white md level stable air clouds
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Re:
KWT wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.
What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.
Yeah, 92L is taking in the brunt of that SAL left behind by Florence....in a way Florence was to fast and let the SAL fill in behind her....I blame her...

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests