ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

6Z NOGAPS....up and out....way right

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

it look like nogap taking out to sea

[CourierPR]

A couple thoughts here. First, some are taking el nino as a given. Has it been officially declared? Second, I once heard Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, say that SAL is not necessarily a development killer.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we have it... the convection starting to build right around the center... should rather impressive in a couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Steve H.]

Looks like Luis took 92L off the map. Any particular reason why?

[KWT]

A couple thoughts here. First, some are taking el nino as a given. Has it been officially declared? Second, I once heard Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, say that SAL is not necessarily a development killer.

1: Its not been ofically declared, but its at the strength required and will be declared probably later this month.

2: Indeed, but it certainly isn't helping 92L's cause either, I think thats what is hurting this system with regards to the convection at the moment.

[gatorcane]

And there we have it... the convection starting to build right around the center... should rather impressive in a couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hmm not so sure about it being impressive in a couple of hours. SAL is everywhere off to its west and northwest.

Good structure and yes some convection but the SAL is going to keep this in check. Yeah maybe we can call it a depression but in the end I don't see this amounting to anything for the Leewards. Probably wouldn't even get attention from forecasters 50 years ago. I would go with 50% for the next TWO (up from my 40%), because the structure is looking better.

[senorpepr]

Looks like Luis took 92L off the map. Any particular reason why?

The map is generated from an outside source and is produced automatically using scripts. With all the changes in the numbering on ATCF, it threw off the software, apparently. It should fix itself over the next few hours.

[MGC]

Despite 92L's excellent LL circulation, convection is lacking.....I doubt the NHC upgrades. There is no rush as the disturbance is still some distance from the Islands.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Looks like Luis took 92L off the map. Any particular reason why?

I dont have anything to do with the graphic because is automated as senor said.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we have it... the convection starting to build right around the center... should rather impressive in a couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hmm not so sure about it being impressive in a couple of hours. SAL is everywhere off to its west and northwest.

Good structure and yes some convection but the SAL is going to keep this in check. Yeah maybe we can call it a depression but in the end I don't see this amounting to anything for the Leewards. Probably wouldn't even get attention from forecasters 50 years ago. I would go with 50% for the next TWO (up from my 40%), because the structure is looking better.

impressive in the sense that it will be compared to what we have seen thus far.... Also its technically already a TD by definition. IT just needs a little more persistent convection before the nhc upgrades. so we are looking at 70 to 90% right now.

[ozonepete]

A couple thoughts here. First, some are taking el nino as a given. Has it been officially declared? Second, I once heard Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, say that SAL is not necessarily a development killer.

Your question is great. We are in ENSO neutral, NOT El Nino. They are very different in that ENSO neutral genertaes much less shear over the Atlantic than El Nino.

Also, yes, SAL being present is not a development killer. Sometimes it has little influence, and that is because its exact effects are not well understood yet. Especially in a case like this where the SAL is on the lightest side of the scale if you look at the CIMSS chart.

[ROCK]

Gator -40% to 50%? sounds like we are downplaying this some?? This is technically a TD all ready. Sure its moving at a fast clip and has SAL in front of it but it is drawing its moisture from the south (ITCZ) which is maintaining it. Look at the MIMIC has a good envelope to work with. if this is 40%-50% in your eyes I would hate to see what you think 70%-90% would look like. That would already be a cat5.....

[Fego]

I think that our friend established his own probabilites chart.

[tolakram]

Blowup near the center, saved loop.

[Florida1118]

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[tolakram]

latest

[StormingB81]

I believe it wouldn't be going out to far on a limb to say we may have TD at 5pm..But I think but 8am tomorrow it will be a TD..thats just me though..but not like thats really going out on a limb..lol

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 80 is right where I had it. 70 to 90. this present burst should tip the scale later today. especially if it expands which it should as the low level cloud deck continues to thicken all around the center outside the convection.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC rakes the main islands....which would tear it up...though it is carib bound on this run and a little stronger.....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Nimbus]

Wow 92L really did take off this morning. LLC isn't outrunning the convection by much so it should at least maintain and even start some slow development. What is the forward speed?

Ernesto was trucking along at 22 oh oh. They probably will just upgrade to depression.