Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM
Hope all is well over your way!

[Gustywind]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM enjoy this day . Hope your safe and dry and Ernesto will give you a break

[Gustywind]

Tropical activity

[Macrocane]

It has been raining in El Salvador since last night, I will posto some observations later. The lateste ATL TWD:

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE CONVECTION OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
86W-91W...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA PACIFIC COAST W OF 82W AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

[Macrocane]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM!!!! Have many more!!

I hope everything is OK in your location. Take care and enjoy your day!

[BZSTORM]

Friend just posted this photo on her FB page (she gave permission to share) from this morning on San Pedro caye (Ambergris cayes) at 7.30am http://i50.tinypic.com/2wh1i0m.jpg she said they didnt get too much rain or wind last night but this morning its allot stronger and well in photo you can see rain lashing down. Haven't heard any updated from Corozal and Orange Walk both on border to Chetumal/MZ as yet.

[BZSTORM]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM!!!! Have many more!!

I hope everything is OK in your location. Take care and enjoy your day!

Thanks Macrocane for B'day wishes yes fine down here in South today, No Ernesto to ge crash my day just about to post update photo from San Pedro Cayes via friend there. see next post

[BZSTORM]

Friend just posted this photo on her FB page (she gave permission to share) from this morning on San Pedro caye (Ambergris cayes) at 7.30am http://i50.tinypic.com/2wh1i0m.jpg she said they didnt get too much rain or wind last night but this morning its allot stronger and well in photo you can see rain lashing down. Haven't heard any updated from Corozal and Orange Walk both on border to Chetumal/MZ as yet.

[cycloneye]

Friend just posted this photo on her FB page (she gave permission to share) from this morning on San Pedro caye (Ambergris cayes) at 7.30am http://i50.tinypic.com/2wh1i0m.jpg she said they didnt get too much rain or wind last night but this morning its allot stronger and well in photo you can see rain lashing down. Haven't heard any updated from Corozal and Orange Walk both on border to Chetumal/MZ as yet.

Very good news that nothing bad occured in the area where you are.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN

[BZSTORM]

Press release from Abergris Cayes (San Pedro) belize
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall last night on Tuesday, August 7, 2012, at 11pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85mph winds. Belize radar shows that Ernesto’s eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula.

As residents of San Pedro expected to wake up to much better weather conditions this morning, Wednesday, August 8, 2012, they were surprised to see a very gloomy day with what seems like more rain and gustier winds as compared to yesterday and last night. Even though TS Ernesto is well inland, the storm is well organized and still bringing heavy rainfall to Mexico and the northern part of Belize.

NEMO has declared an “ALL CLEAR” for the entire country of Belize as of 9:30a.m. but advises people in the Northern part of the country that they will continue to experience gusty winds.

In San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, there has been reported about 2.4 inches of rainfall within the last 24 hours with maximum wind gusts reaching 40mph, coming in from the south east. Ambergris Caye and northern Belize were spared from the hurricane weather conditions of a direct hit from Ernesto. The island is currently experiencing heavy rains and strong wind gusts being produced by the outer rain bands of TS Ernesto as tropical force winds extend outwards up to 160 miles from the center. Preliminary inspections around the island indicate no damages as San Pedro is only riding out heavy rains and intermittent strong wind gusts.

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has indicated that the Phillip Goldson International Airport and all other Municipal airstrips remain operational, except for Corozal, Sarteneja, San Pedro, Caye Caulker and Tower Hill Municipal airstrips which are closed until further notice. Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service.

http://www.belizehub.com/2012/08/08/bel ... e-ernesto/

[BZSTORM]

Press release from Abergris Cayes (San Pedro) belize
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall last night on Tuesday, August 7, 2012, at 11pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85mph winds. Belize radar shows that Ernesto’s eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula.

As residents of San Pedro expected to wake up to much better weather conditions this morning, Wednesday, August 8, 2012, they were surprised to see a very gloomy day with what seems like more rain and gustier winds as compared to yesterday and last night. Even though TS Ernesto is well inland, the storm is well organized and still bringing heavy rainfall to Mexico and the northern part of Belize.

NEMO has declared an “ALL CLEAR” for the entire country of Belize as of 9:30a.m. but advises people in the Northern part of the country that they will continue to experience gusty winds.

In San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, there has been reported about 2.4 inches of rainfall within the last 24 hours with maximum wind gusts reaching 40mph, coming in from the south east. Ambergris Caye and northern Belize were spared from the hurricane weather conditions of a direct hit from Ernesto. The island is currently experiencing heavy rains and strong wind gusts being produced by the outer rain bands of TS Ernesto as tropical force winds extend outwards up to 160 miles from the center. Preliminary inspections around the island indicate no damages as San Pedro is only riding out heavy rains and intermittent strong wind gusts.

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has indicated that the Phillip Goldson International Airport and all other Municipal airstrips remain operational, except for Corozal, Sarteneja, San Pedro, Caye Caulker and Tower Hill Municipal airstrips which are closed until further notice. Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service.

http://www.belizehub.com/2012/08/08/bel ... e-ernesto/

Also heard this mrnig that late last night some SW winds come through Placencia which kicked up some 2 ft waves down near the point, its normally pretty flat out there with maybe the odd 5" wave. Guess we sometimes underestimate the back end of those rain bands.

[artist]

thanks for your updates BZSTORM. Glad you guys faired well there.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED AUG 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND TUTT LOW TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE TUTT LOW MOVES WEST...TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW OVER
THE HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE
WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE TUTT. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE A
GOOD SCENARIO FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO
RICO...THE AREA REMAINED OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH
INHIBITED THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN AND BRIEFLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. ALSO FOR TOMORROW THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
MODERATE...THEREFORE WITH AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH WESTERN SECTIONS DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT
INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A MID TO UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN WHICH CAN LIMIT CONVECTION IF IT
BRINGS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 80 90 / 20 30 20 30
STT 79 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 50%:

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH WWW UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N35W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N36W
MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER AND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
37W-40W...AND FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 34W-36W. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We are watching the progress of invest 92L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. TUTT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. INVEST 92L IS FORECAST TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE EXPECTED WEATHER REGIMEN INCLUDES PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...INVEST 92L IS FORECAST TO
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSRA XPCD TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING TO THE NW AROUND 10 KT. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IS AT JBQ
AND WILL LIKELY ADD A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 17Z-20Z AND KEEP VCTS FOR
JMZ. SIMILAR PATTERN AGAIN ON FRI WITH FAIR WX CONDITIONS XPCD SAT-
SUN. INVEST 92L IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLC XPCD TO PASS TO THE SOUTH
SUN AND SUN EVENING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TS LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL MOVE QUICKLY
WWD AROUND 15 KT AND MAY BECOME A TS LATER TODAY OR FRI. GUIDANCE
SHOWS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE LATEST 03Z SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE ABOUT 25% PROB OF
WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KT AT 66-87 HRS OR BETWEEN 21Z SAT-18Z SUN. THESE
ARE DECENT PROBS AT THESE TIME RANGES AND WARRANT INCREASING WINDS
TO AT LEAST 20 KT. BASED ON WAVE HEIGHT NOMOGRAMS AND LATEST TAFB
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED SEAS 5-7 FT TO BRING THEM WITHIN SCA RANGE.
THESE ARE THE SAME NUMBERS THAT PREVIOUS FCSTR HAD BUT WITH A
FASTER/EARLIER ONSET OF HAZARDOUS SEAS AND A FASTER DEPARTURE OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 80 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

From Crown Weather:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 92L:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, located over the eastern Atlantic this morning. It seems very likely that this system will become our next named storm either as early as late today or more likely during the day on Friday.

Satellite loops over the past several hours indicate that 92L is now tracking west-southwestward rather than westward. This west-southwestward motion is caused by a small ridge of high pressure that is positioned northeast to southwest over the central Atlantic. Environmental conditions are favorable over 92L and are expected to remain favorable for the next couple of days or so. Even with the favorable conditions, I expect slow development and intensification as it tracks westward over the next several days.

Now, what does the future hold for Invest 92L? Well, as I mentioned I do think that it will become our next named storm (Gordon) as early as late today or more likely on Friday. From there, I suspect we will see slow, but steady strengthening with this system potentially impacting the Lesser Antilles, most likely between the islands of Guadeloupe and St. Lucia on Saturday afternoon as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm. Once 92L/Gordon reaches the Caribbean, it may end up staying as a steady-state tropical storm or weaken due to unfavorable environmental conditions; but, as we saw with Ernesto, it did not dissipate and this could very well become the case with this system late this weekend into next week as it tracks westward across the Caribbean; in fact, it would not surprise me at all to see 92L/Gordon follow an extremely similar path that Ernesto has taken due to that the fact that the upper-level pattern remains the same as it did with Ernesto.

Those of you in the Lesser Antilles, especially between the islands of Guadeloupe and St. Lucia, as well as on the island of Barbados, you should be aware that tropical storm conditions seem likely during the day Saturday and possibly continuing into Saturday evening. Expect tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 mph, very heavy rainfall with the risk for flash flooding and very rough seas.

I am monitoring this system closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

[Gustywind]

Monitoring closely 92L...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091204
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

091742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG