Aric Dunn wrote:Just to end the discussion of el nino. regardless if it develops now the effects wont be felt across the US and atlantic till almost winter so the 2012 season will pass as neutral conditions.
Yes, that's correct. Here's an excerpt from the latest report from the CPC:
Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.
It always takes quite a while for the atmosphere to respond after El Nino SSTs are reached and we haven't even reached the required SSTs in all 4 designated PAC regions yet. That is one of the reasons the NHC increased its forecast for the remainder of the season.