ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#381 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Just to end the discussion of el nino. regardless if it develops now the effects wont be felt across the US and atlantic till almost winter so the 2012 season will pass as neutral conditions.


Yes, that's correct. Here's an excerpt from the latest report from the CPC:
Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.

It always takes quite a while for the atmosphere to respond after El Nino SSTs are reached and we haven't even reached the required SSTs in all 4 designated PAC regions yet. That is one of the reasons the NHC increased its forecast for the remainder of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#382 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:38 pm

I see a thunderstorm popped up just NE of the center in the past hour. That buoy mentioned above is about 190 miles west of 92L, so it's not really being influenced TOO MUCH by the disturbance yet. There does appear to be a well-defined LLC, and it certainly is warm-core. However, one other requirement for upgrading (though apparently not for downgrading) is for persistent convection near the core.

Upgrade could come at any time. All models in good agreement in taking it across the Lesser Antilles between 14N-15N Saturday evening then a few hundred miles south of the DR on Monday afternoon. Even the Canadian now. However, the Canadian develops a spurious hurricane in the east-central Gulf on Sunday, apparently from vorticity moving off the NW coast of Colombia tomorrow.

All models also suggest a continued fast nearly due-west movement, meaning it may have a hard time becoming well-organized. None of the models suggests a turn toward the central Gulf next week. They all have a building ridge over the central to NE Gulf next Tuesday, keeping anything in the Caribbean on a westerly track toward Central America or the southern Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#383 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:45 pm

Image
18z Bams. More northerly on this run.

Image
18z dynamic models showing more northerly tracks at end of run. TVCN shifted
north form 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#384 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:54 pm

Is this going to be something to worry about in FL or is this going to end up being a bigger concern for the Gulf?
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#385 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:00 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


As Wxman57 said I see no reason why this doesn't follow Ernesto right into CA and buries itself, pattern hasn't changed at all since then. Whilst the ridge is a little stronger, 92L is further north than Ernesto was at this stage so a track close to Ernesto seems like a good bet.

Worth noting the models have been under-estimating the strength of the upper ridge in the last few days, apparent with some of the models forecasts for Ernesto as well. So once again a more southerly track seems reasonable to me.
Last edited by Portastorm on Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#386 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:06 pm

Wow.. so this is an Ernesto redux it seems from the models as it tracks toward the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#387 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:07 pm

tgenius wrote:Is this going to be something to worry about in FL or is this going to end up being a bigger concern for the Gulf?


Right now it's too early to tell but wxman57 just gave a really good early analysis that indicates this will most likely stay well south of Florida. His reasoning is, as always, very sound. But you will still have to just watch over the next few days to be sure.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#388 Postby TheBurn » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:10 pm

18:00 UTC RGB Natural Color

Image
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#389 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:13 pm

My personal feeling is that this current convective burst may be what is needed to finally get this one off the ground and get a depression out of it...we'll just have to wait and see however...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#390 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:13 pm

latest

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#391 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:19 pm

Sorry Luis/SenorPep, didn't know that graphic was autogen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#392 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:23 pm

This seems like Ernesto all over again.. 12z GFS & EURO bring it into the caribbean.. weaken it and send it to CA or the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#393 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:25 pm

I am not to sure I would just brush this guy off as a CA / Yucatan storm just yet....None of the models have a handle on 92L. Nor do they have a handle on this big bad trof that is supposed to swing down next week....for instance... The GFDL doesnt even see it, GFS doesnt do anything with it, CMC keeps it weak, NOGAPS over does it and sends it to fish la la land. IN other words, we are talking 6-7 days and it needs to be watched by everyone....Islanders are first up...
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#394 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:30 pm

The high resolution HWRF sees this pulled north from way down by 17N over Hispaniola but then what? Trapped by the next ridge or stalled in the Bahamas?
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#395 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:31 pm

Think the HWRF is out to lunch, I see no real way this is going to eject north with the strength of that ridge aloft.

Models have constantly under-estimated the strength of this ridge in the last few days, fwiw.
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Re:

#396 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:34 pm

Nimbus wrote:The high resolution HWRF sees this pulled north from way down by 17N over Hispaniola but then what? Trapped by the next ridge or stalled in the Bahamas?


GFDL & HWRF along with the Candian did the same thing with Ernesto too and they eventually came around.. I think we should really respect what the GFS is showing.. it has done remarkably well this year it seems to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L

#397 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:34 pm

ROCK wrote:I am not to sure I would just brush this guy off as a CA / Yucatan storm just yet....None of the models have a handle on 92L. Nor do they have a handle on this big bad trof that is supposed to swing down next week....for instance... The GFDL doesnt even see it, GFS doesnt do anything with it, CMC keeps it weak, NOGAPS over does it and sends it to fish la la land. IN other words, we are talking 6-7 days and it needs to be watched by everyone....Islanders are first up...


well more of the emsemble member have shifted north as well the hwrf, ukmet turns to the right at the end. The deeper it gets it should feel whatever weakness does develop. still early to say. but this current convection although small is still a sign it will likely develop.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#398 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:35 pm

If it develops. It should be watched for landfall threat in the U.S. The models don't mean alot until it forms. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#399 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:36 pm

Image

18z TVCN (gray line) shifted towards a WNW to NW movement towards Haiti at the end run. 18z run seems to indicate WNW to NW movement in the central Caribbean.
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#400 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:39 pm

Yeah there has been a subtle shift northwards of the models this eveing it seems, still the BAMS and the other two BAM's are super spread out!
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