ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

I am not to sure I would just brush this guy off as a CA / Yucatan storm just yet....None of the models have a handle on 92L. Nor do they have a handle on this big bad trof that is supposed to swing down next week....for instance... The GFDL doesnt even see it, GFS doesnt do anything with it, CMC keeps it weak, NOGAPS over does it and sends it to fish la la land. IN other words, we are talking 6-7 days and it needs to be watched by everyone....Islanders are first up...

Yeah don't count me in the camp who's thinks it's going the same route as Ernesto. Although I said wxman's early analysis for track is reasonable today, it might not be so reasonable tomorrow, lol. We all know how much the track can change that far out. It's just way too early to say.

[wxman57]

Low-level center appears to be pulling ahead of that convective burst again, by about 40 miles. No one said it's 100% going to hit CA or the southern Yucatan. But all models do develop a ridge right over the eastern Gulf and Florida by next Tuesday when it would be reaching the western Caribbean, indicating continued west motion.

[Blown Away]

18z dynamic models.

[Nikki]

Low-level center appears to be pulling ahead of that convective burst again, by about 40 miles. No one said it's 100% going to hit CA or the southern Yucatan. But all models do develop a ridge right over the eastern Gulf and Florida by next Tuesday when it would be reaching the western Caribbean, indicating continued west motion.

Would the continued west motion send it into either CA or southern Yucatan vs. into the GOM? Wouldn't it have to move WNW at some point to make it into the GOM?

[Aric Dunn]

Low-level center appears to be pulling ahead of that convective burst again, by about 40 miles. No one said it's 100% going to hit CA or the southern Yucatan. But all models do develop a ridge right over the eastern Gulf and Florida by next Tuesday when it would be reaching the western Caribbean, indicating continued west motion.

I see the far western edge of the circ but within the first burst there are now over shooting tops indicating a possible larger convective burst to come as well as the western sides low level cloud deck is finally starting to thicken a sign it to is probably about develop convection

[Weatherfreak000]

This storm is THAT way away and you guys are already forecasting a track???? That's crazytalk and any vet here at storm2k knows it. Ernesto could have been an entirely different storm, and these preliminary models do NOT look the same as his....why do you ask? My thoughts are.....

-Slower movement
-Further North
-More organized LLC
-Vastly better conditions in the Central Caribbean


In closing, all wxman57 is saying is given the right circumstances it CAN take an Ernie track, but the puzzle pieces are in place to send Gordon to the GOM so long as he doesn't collapse like Ernie did trekking west......I just don't see it. Also appears to be a smaller circulation, this potentially has an effect on track as well.

[cycloneye]

Well,maybe this time it will be upgraded? I prefer to wait for the official word by NHC between 4:30 PM-5:00 PM EDT.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091948
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
[/size]
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 072012.ren

[KWT]

I tend to think its quite logical that if a storm follow almost directly after another in a similar location with similar background conditions and problems, the track probably won't be too much different at least to start with. Of course it could change tohugh as we get deeper into the period.

Just remember that models do tend to under-estimate ridging, especially in the mid ranges.

As for the center, I do see the western side poking out more, but I don't think its outrunning the convection just yet really, however if the LL flow does pick up any more then its going to have a hard time to keep up.

[cycloneye]

091953
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1953 UTC THU AUG 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE SEVEN (AL072012) 20120809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120809 1800 120810 0600 120810 1800 120811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 42.9W 13.7N 46.5W 13.9N 50.5W 14.2N 54.6W
BAMD 13.7N 42.9W 13.7N 45.5W 13.8N 48.0W 14.2N 50.4W
BAMM 13.7N 42.9W 13.9N 45.7W 14.2N 48.7W 14.6N 51.6W
LBAR 13.7N 42.9W 13.6N 45.6W 13.7N 48.8W 14.0N 51.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120811 1800 120812 1800 120813 1800 120814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 58.9W 15.3N 67.6W 16.2N 76.6W 16.5N 84.3W
BAMD 14.8N 52.5W 16.6N 55.7W 18.0N 58.4W 19.3N 61.4W
BAMM 15.2N 54.3W 16.4N 59.0W 17.9N 62.6W 19.4N 65.6W
LBAR 14.5N 54.9W 16.3N 59.8W 18.3N 62.6W 19.3N 64.3W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 61KTS 65KTS
DSHP 55KTS 59KTS 61KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 42.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 37.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[drezee]

Well,maybe this time it will be upgraded? I prefer to wait for the official word by NHC between 4:30 PM-5:00 PM EDT.

Well you know what GW said...

Fool me once...uhhhh...you can't fool me again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushism

It meets all criteria for a TC. It is basically subjective at this point.

[KWT]

Wonder if the latest convective burst was finally good enough for the NHC to pull the trigger for the next set of advisories. We'll know soon enough!

[ConvergenceZone]

Is this going to be something to worry about in FL or is this going to end up being a bigger concern for the Gulf?

as wxman said, it SHOULD BE going to either Mexico or Central America. Nothing to worry about unless something drastically changes....WXMAN has a pretty good track record ...

Edit: I tried to delete my post as I realized it was outdated, but I hit "report" instead, so I reported myself lol....

[gatorcane]

Looks like the WSW motion has stopped and it is now moving due west. May not lose any more lattitude from here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Best Track

I think this time is for real.

AL, 07, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30, 1010, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Nimbus]

A Ridge forecast over the southeast when G/92 is expected to be in the Caribbean, so strength might be more of a determining factor. Even something like a stall trying to recurve into the ridge could mess up all the models timing. Its only moving 15 MPH now so it wouldn't take much to have it spin up into the big islands.

[Aric Dunn]

that was kind of silly. they should have just left from this morning. lol

[Aric Dunn]

I tend to think its quite logical that if a storm follow almost directly after another in a similar location with similar background conditions and problems, the track probably won't be too much different at least to start with. Of course it could change tohugh as we get deeper into the period.

Just remember that models do tend to under-estimate ridging, especially in the mid ranges.

As for the center, I do see the western side poking out more, but I don't think its outrunning the convection just yet really, however if the LL flow does pick up any more then its going to have a hard time to keep up.

Well not that its a huge deal. but if you go frame by frame you will see the convection never covered the western side. so its neither out running it or build western.

[KWT]

Updated 18z Best Track

I think this time is for real.

AL, 07, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30, 1010, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Yep looks like this time its the real deal. Also as mentioned earlier, heading due west now as well, wouldn't surprise me to see it soon pick up an ever so slight north of west motion, say 275.

[Aric Dunn]

it looks as though this buoy will take a direct pass over. should give accurate reading of winds and pressure.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It is too early to accurately and professionally say where Seven is going.