ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

For those who live in the Lesser Antilles, especially in the Windwards... note that Martinica has just issued an yellow alert ( Watches ) due to DT7 who could concern this island.

[alienstorm]

I like JB but he is going overboard with some of his antics. He will do everything to make sure that the 400mb that is his new pet is going to read the future of storms.

[hurricaneCW]

Track wise this season is behaving like 2007.Dean and Felix due west thru the Caribbean

Based on one storm in early-mid August? I'm not adding TD 7 because it hasn't done anything yet.

[Portastorm]

Alright gang ... let's re-focus please on TD #7 and move past the JB dialogue. Thank you.

[timmeister]

I am slightly curious about the wave coming off of w africa atm. Obviously not formed enough to have its own discussion section here, but I am curious whether or not it will form and the likelihood of it favorable conditions or not.

I've been watching the wave you speak of all week and it looks pretty impressive! There is a thread where it's being discussed here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&hilit=&start=120

[KWT]

Well another GFS run and another very unimpressive response from the GFS with regards to this system.

[ROCK]

TD7 just blew up some more convection over the center.....nice

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this looks like a total carbon copy of Ernesto as far as track and forecasted strength is
concerned..

[Gustywind]

Loop of TD 7
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosa ... aeatle.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

I noticed that as well ROCK, NHC intensity track actually looks good here. Hard to wanna dissipate a storm that is coming in slower and a smaller, tighter circulation. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Ernie booking 17 mph and climbing, as well as had a much more broad circulation? Model wars I hear them a comin', and it might be much more interesting this go around...

[ROCK]

Well another GFS run and another very unimpressive response from the GFS with regards to this system.

yeah, but the GFS had issues with "E" also so its going to take until TD7 is named before it will latch on....JMO

[KWT]

Wow, this looks like a total carbon copy of Ernesto as far as track and forecasted strength is
concerned..

Really is very similar, they may yet even end up reaching the Caribbean at the same latitude as well!

Ernesto was moving maybe a touch faster, but not by much.

[meriland23]

TD7 just blew up some more convection over the center.....nice

Convection and intesity wont matter if the shear kicks it. Even if it somehow became a hurricane, or something of serious significance, if the shear is as instense as predicted.. it will bring the entire thing back into non-existence..probably.

[boca]

Track wise this season is behaving like 2007.Dean and Felix due west thru the Caribbean

Based on one storm in early-mid August? I'm not adding TD 7 because it hasn't done anything yet.

True lets see what happens

[Comanche]

FWIW Joe Bastardi calling for this to dissipate in the Caribbean.

and he adamantly forecasted for Ernesto to open up into a wave.

I do have to come to his defense on this one....... although the official NHC never took it back to an open wave, some of the pro-mets and amateurs here said it had degenerated back to a wave at best at one point. He also said it would reform in the western caribbean, which it did. I am a neutral JB guy, neither love nor hate, always love reading as many ideas as possible. It would do many of you ALOT of good to stop the hating and embrace all outcomes and ideas thrown out there, whether you agree or not. Stop being blinded by bias, it is a bandwagon that many have jumped on and it will take you nowhere.

[Weatherfreak000]

The models this far out with this much uncertainty can't give us reliable information as far as intensity, or even track. If you want to know exactly how shear may impact him, check out this website:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... zoom=&time

Shear IMO looks slightly better for future Gordon that did Ernie. Then, you can check out shear tendency, which explains how shear will evolve, over time:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Tells a different tale, but overall the increasing in shear to it's north may not be enough to kill it. Therefore, the reasoning IMO is not to dissipate it. Seeing as how the intensity logic at this juncture for the NHC is similar to Ernie, we can also perhaps assume so is the forecast logic. If Gordon gets stronger, he'll trek more north, if he gets weaker he goes more west.

IMO, he comes in stronger. Dry air has been cleared out, and I don't think it has time to build back in, and Gordon takes advantage. Our first real chance at a major? We'll see, but with a stronger weakness setting up over the central GOM the Gulf Coast needs to be watching, and in general if your in the GOM at all, always keep one eye opened.

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[Nederlander]

Don't know this for a fact, i'm not a meteorologist but I think Ernesto not intensifying like most assumed was due to the mid level dry air intruding into the circulation every time it had a burst of convection. It didn't look like the shear helped play a part in the entire role. So, if most of this mid level dry air is gone I don't see the shear keeping it at bay through the entire 5 day forecast. It will strengthen to a hurricane days sooner than ernesto did. I think the track will keep getting shifted slightly north as forecasters see its not getting affected as much as they may think with shear and dry air and may go just far enough north to make texas coastal residents weary. JM2C.

Ernie's biggest issue, IMO, wasn't dry air, it was the llc continuously outrunning the mlc. He never could get a stacked shot to 200mb in the central/eastern Caribbean. Otherwise, I think he could have digested the small amount of midlevel dry air that he encountered. And if you believe the BAM suite, being too fast for your own good looks to be the fate for TD7 as well.. Things change daily though. Won't be paying too much attention to this for a while.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ernesto was so Frustrating that if TD 7 isn't going to develop, I think it would be better that it would just do us all a favor and die now and get it over with and save us all the anguish later of trying to predict if it's going to surive or not....


It seems the trend this year is, "is it or isn't it going to survive?" no absolutes....

[ouragans]

At 5PM, Meteo France placed Martinique in Tropical Storm "yellow watch", valid until Monday morning. Nothing for Guadeloupe.

IMHO, it's too early for a system more than 1700km far, they could have wait until tomorrow 10z, after 2 more advisories and 2 forecasts, but they are the Pro Mets, I'm not

[KWT]

IMO, he comes in stronger. Dry air has been cleared out, and I don't think it has time to build back in, and Gordon takes advantage. Our first real chance at a major? We'll see, but with a stronger weakness setting up over the central GOM the Gulf Coast needs to be watching, and in general if your in the GOM at all, always keep one eye opened.
.

Possibly but I'm not overly impressed by that weakness, its shallow and doesn't dig that far down, not enough to scoop something that will likely be weak/very weak in the Caribbean. I'd personally only put its survival chances at something like 50-50 at the moment past 65W.