Strong wave emerging Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[Gustywind]

First talk about Pouch 13L and a very long paragraph...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N11W TO 18N12W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS AFRICA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
WHILE THIS CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
600-850 MB...THE ONLY APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N12W ACCORDING TO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W AFRICA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS HAVE
BEEN DOWNWARD INTENSITY WISE THE PAST 6 HOURS...A COMPLEX OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 13W-19W...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND W
AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 10W-16W.

[tolakram]

latest loop

[timmeister]

Looks like it will enter the Atlantic sometime this afternoon or evening around 13-14 North.

[Riptide]

Pouch 13L is back as a significant player but it goes way out into fishland because the Bermuda high is exceptionally weak.

[KWT]

Its not so much that the Bermuda High is weak, its that its already at 20N by the time it gets going. Unless you've got a STRONG high in place anything that far north and that far east is going into the land of the fishes.

[Riptide]

Its not so much that the Bermuda High is weak, its that its already at 20N by the time it gets going. Unless you've got a STRONG high in place anything that far north and that far east is going into the land of the fishes.

I'm more interested in why it moves north immediately after leaving Africa, considering it starts around 15N. There looks to be some anomalous deep shortwave in Western Europe.

[Fego]

The farther North, the stronger it's the Coriolis effect?

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Is not common to see a circle almost inside Africa.

[KWT]

20% already, probably invest within the next 12hrs I suspect.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, should be 93L soon I would think. The model runs will be interesting...

[cycloneye]

Convection increasing again. It should be 93L soon.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/2cpeqs8.jpg

[KWT]

Yep won't be long till 93L. Also well done to the models, looks like its exited pretty close to 15N afterall. *should* go out to sea given how far north it already is, unless the models really are undercooking the ridge.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[mcheer23]

Invest tag yet?

[Nikki]

Invest tag yet?

No not yet, but I don't think it will be long before they tag it, if not as soon as its totally off land, shortly after is my guess!

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[Florida1118]

BEST TRACK: AL93, 150N 170W, 25kts, 0mb, DB

Looks like its here.

[cycloneye]

Thread is locked as is invest 93L.