ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Weatherguy173]

earlier in this discussion (way earlier - the 5th), I proposed a possible regeneration in the pacific of Ernesto, when Ernesto was south or southeast of Jamaica, and people doubted me. Look at what is happening!

[vbhoutex]

earlier in this discussion (way earlier - the 5th), I proposed a possible regeneration in the pacific of Ernesto, when Ernesto was south or southeast of Jamaica, and people doubted me. Look at what is happening!

Was that just a WAG or what did you see that made you think it might happen? Was there something special that lead you to that early and probably correct conclusion? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Kingarabian]

earlier in this discussion (way earlier - the 5th), I proposed a possible regeneration in the pacific of Ernesto, when Ernesto was south or southeast of Jamaica, and people doubted me. Look at what is happening!

Was that just a WAG or what did you see that made you think it might happen? Was there something special that lead you to that early and probably correct conclusion? Inquiring minds want to know.

I had the same feeling as well. I just thought he was well south and was strong enough to handle the mountains. Don't forget he made landfall a bit SW instead of West as predicted. So he didn't go over the most rugged terrain of Mexico.

[tolakram]

Just to be clear,

it did NOT make it. A broad area of low pressure (spin) made it across, and this should be enough fuel for an EPAC storm, but the distinct entity known as Ernesto died in the mountains.

[Kingarabian]

Just to be clear,

it did NOT make it. A broad area of low pressure (spin) made it across, and this should be enough fuel for an EPAC storm, but the distinct entity known as Ernesto died in the mountains.

In that kind of sense, something did make it .

[Weatherguy173]

earlier in this discussion (way earlier - the 5th), I proposed a possible regeneration in the pacific of Ernesto, when Ernesto was south or southeast of Jamaica, and people doubted me. Look at what is happening!

Was that just a WAG or what did you see that made you think it might happen? Was there something special that lead you to that early and probably correct conclusion? Inquiring minds want to know.

what led me to believe this was that based in historical forecast paths and tropical cyclone tendencies in august, i felt that it would take a shot in the area of the yucatan. also, the low pressure system, given where i thought it would go, would have to cross land about the length of arizona. with the storm/low pressure system moving rapidly, i did not think it would take much time before the outer bands cross over into the pacific and then eventually a regeneration of the storm into what could possibly be TS Hector. As I am sure you know, this has happened in the past, around the Nicaragua area.

[tolakram]

But again, to be clear, when it happens as defined by the NHC it keeps it's low level circulation.

What happened here is that the LLC dissipated, never made it to the Pacific. What did make it was a general area of lower pressure, which will have some spin to it, much like a tropical wave. Because conditions in that area of the Pacific are decent for development it appears this is enough of a spark to generate a new tropical storm. Again, very similar to how a wave or in rare cases an upper level low can spark storm development.

[Weatherguy173]

But again, to be clear, when it happens as defined by the NHC it keeps it's low level circulation.

What happened here is that the LLC dissipated, never made it to the Pacific. What did make it was a general area of lower pressure, which will have some spin to it, much like a tropical wave. Because conditions in that area of the Pacific are decent for development it appears this is enough of a spark to generate a new tropical storm. Again, very similar to how a wave or in rare cases an upper level low can spark storm development.

that's what I meant, i didn't mean that the "official" storm itself with the circulation would make it across, but the low pressure area. you can already see in radar and satellite imagery that something will form in the epac within the next day. just look at the most recent satellite loop and wind speed given.

[tolakram]

Yes, I agree, and there is a thread for it already: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113326

The ghost of Ernesto.

[Iune]

1st answer: Nope. Whenever a storm's center of circulation is >50% into the EPAC or ATL basins, the storm is assigned the upcoming name from the basin that the storm crossed into. For example, if Ernesto survives his trip across Mexico, he will be renamed Ernesto-Hector.

As far as I know, the NHC stopped this policy in 2001. If Ernesto had survived, the name would have stayed the same.

[Weatherguy173]

1st answer: Nope. Whenever a storm's center of circulation is >50% into the EPAC or ATL basins, the storm is assigned the upcoming name from the basin that the storm crossed into. For example, if Ernesto survives his trip across Mexico, he will be renamed Ernesto-Hector.

As far as I know, the NHC stopped this policy in 2001. If Ernesto had survived, the name would have stayed the same.

just thought I would back you up on this: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

it is quoted "However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin." on the NOAA Hurricane Research Division site.

[somethingfunny]

Check this out... I believe Ernesto's remnant LLC may be located in the middle of Mexico near the blowup of convection around 18.5°N/99°W. But that blowup of convection on the coastline near 18°N/102°W may be a new LLC forming. It's rare to see a loop actually showing the transition here... and it clearly shows why the regenerated system would not be named Ernesto.

Although looking at that loop makes my head spin because there's so many competing circulations. It's definitely related to Ernesto in that regard!

[Weatherguy173]

it's ernesto's possible little brother hector

[cycloneye]

The final advisory was not posted so here it is.

REMNANTS OF ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IS NO
LONGER TRACKABLE. ERNESTO NOW CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...IT WILL ACQUIRE A NEW DEPRESSION NUMBER...OR A
NEW NAME IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
ERNESTO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.0N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[stormhunter7]

I know this is Ernesto forum.. but i think from what i was watching... this may have lead to the fact Ernesto didn't make a run at the US. The pattern upstream had to deal with this strong/huger artic storm in Alaska and the artic ocean!

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/featur ... storm.html

[Sanibel]

Ernesto is showing incredible black IR depth in the Pacific even after two days over land. Even deeper than at its height in the Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto made the cross-over!

[greenkat]

it's ernesto's possible little brother hector

HAAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA