Texas Summer 2012

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting little convergence zone forming this Friday afternoon across the Austin metro area. Hope these showers build into something which provides me and weatherdude1108 with some generous rainfall!

I saw that! There wasn't a cloud in the sky at the noon hour. Then around 2:30, clouds billowing all over the place! It looks like it is developing just south of my location. I'm hoping more forms from the north! Be nice to get some free water on the grass before the predicted inferno this weekend. I won't get my hopes up, but fingers crossed anyway!

[Ntxw]

What's this?! In mid August???



FW

THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. A
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE CONTINENT LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH POLE
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS DISLODGES A DECENT
CHUNK OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025MB HIGH THAT SPILLS SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR 3+ DAYS NOW...AND THE LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE COOL
AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE FRONT...AND SINCE IT IS STILL
AUGUST...IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO BE AS CONSERVATIVE AS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLIER /ON THURSDAY NIGHT/ AND BE MUCH STRONGER. FOR THIS REASON
WILL SHOW TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY...BUT
THIS IS REALLY A HEDGE ROOTED IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. EITHER
WAY...BY NEXT SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MOST LIKELY IN THE LOW 90S FOR HIGHS. IN ADDITION THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. IF
THE FRONT IS WEAKER...PER THE GFS...IT WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION LONGER AND WOULD BODE WELL FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER A STRONGER FRONT LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD MEAN
MORE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY OCCURRING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

*Faints*

[Portastorm]

Portastorm gets up from his computer and does the Snoopy Dance!

[vbhoutex]

So are we talking a repeat this coming week? Or is this what came through today?

[Portastorm]

So are we talking a repeat this coming week? Or is this what came through today?

Don't know if it will reach as far south as Austin-Houston ... but the talk is about a major and highly unusual front to come down the Plains and cool us off with rain chances along and behind the front. Next Thursday-Friday. The GFS and Euro have been honking about it for days. While it is quite unusual for August, it isn't unheard of and seems to have the globals support.

[Ntxw]

Yeah I've seen the Euro trying for about a week. If anything it will bring a very good chance of rain for much of Texas and with Epac activity perhaps it could get enhanced. Secondly overnight lows will reflect it well. Could see 60s again in the northern half the state overnight next weekend. If this were winter the blocking shown would give us a cold blast...but it's august.

[Tireman4]

What the Sam Hill? August. Cold front. What in the wild wild world of sports is a'goin on? Next thing you will tell me is that David Rudisha of Kenya not only won the 800 meter final in London, but became the first man under 1:41. Oh wait, he did....

[weatherdude1108]

Encouraging! Ernesto's remnant moisture may help us out after all.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HEAT BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO BACK OFF SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS MORNING THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND EXTENDS WNW TO THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM. THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT TRIGGERED CONVECTION ALONG HWY 90
FRIDAY IS SITUATED ALONG A GENERAL COTULLA TO LA GRANGE LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PRAIRIES TODAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS...
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 PERCENT...BUT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A CLIPPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN TX AND WEAKEN
THE SUBSIDENCE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATION OVER THE AREA AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL STILL PROMOTE HOT
AND STABLE WEATHER...BUT WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO LEVELS THAT COULD DESTABILIZE THE UPPER RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
ACCELERATE THE MODERATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE
INCREASED THE AMPLITUDE OF A NW FLOW DISTURBANCE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE FRONTS IN MID-AUGUST ARE SOMETIMES
POORLY HANDLED BY MODELS...WILL GIVE THIS PATTERN SOME WEIGHT...AS
MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS SOME FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY A TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SW.

[weatherdude1108]

Exactly one MONTH ago today, it rained at the Weatherdude1108 Weather Center. Last drop we had.

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z GFS and Euro continue to advertise an honest-to-goodness August cold front for the southern Plains and Texas late this coming week. The Euro looks more pronounced with the "cold" air than the GFS. Both models however show good chances for rain and suggest a possible Pacific moisture feed combined with Gulf inflow. This *could* be very beneficial for us.

Regardless, I think we'll see a moderation of temps and some rain. And in August in Texas, that my friends is a near miracle!

[Rgv20]

The 6z and now the 12zGFS are showing the potential for a closed low in the Western Gulf by this coming weekend. The 0zECMWF keeps this feature as an open wave which as Porta stated above it could provide some good rain for most of Texas late next week until the weekend. The 6zGFS had a few of its Ensemble members showing a stronger TC in the Western Gulf...still waiting on the 12zGFS individual members to come out to see if some agree with the operational run.







EDIT:Forecast valid for Sunday Morning...This is one of an individual GFS Ensemble member.

[Rgv20]

This afternoons afternoon discussion from the NWS in Brownsville.

"THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION."

[Ntxw]

MCS-ish storms could string from Dallas to Austin this evening, fingers crossed for slow moving rain filled storms!

Perhaps 0.50-1+ in some locales according to some short range models.

[Portastorm]

Hey Ntxw, thanks for posting that. Encouraging although I got the sense from the locals (NWS) that whatever convective activity sprung up that it would stay north of us tonight. Meanwhile, the GFS continues showing a weak but closed tropical circulation in the western Gulf by late next week. Several runs in a row. I wonder if that's the remnants of TD #7 or something else.

[underthwx]

Hey Ntxw, thanks for posting that. Encouraging although I got the sense from the locals (NWS) that whatever convective activity sprung up that it would stay north of us tonight. Meanwhile, the GFS continues showing a weak but closed tropical circulation in the western Gulf by late next week. Several runs in a row. I wonder if that's the remnants of TD #7 or something else.

Hey Port...This is an excerpt from the Brownsville AFD...hope this helps'...



THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION.

[Portastorm]

Thank you, friend. So this ought be an interesting week for us Texans. Here's hoping for rain!

[weatherdude1108]

MCS-ish storms could string from Dallas to Austin this evening, fingers crossed for slow moving rain filled storms!

Perhaps 0.50-1+ in some locales according to some short range models.

When you first posted this I thought I was imagining things or you had your days mixed up. I reread it several times to make sure. It was clear outside and no mention of it in the local offices. Sure enough, there are storms off to our north! You pegged it Ntwx!

This is why I love weather so much! Even in the dog days, you NEVER know what to expect.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Thank you, friend. So this ought be an interesting week for us Texans. Here's hoping for rain!

I second that!

[Ntxw]

Sigh once again lots of rain all around me especially to the north and west, I got nothing. Hope you Austinites have better luck at that line overnight.

[somethingfunny]

Durant, Oklahoma is practically Texas, right? I had a bit of an impromptu storm chase earlier today.

Structure shots!!!!