Global model runs discussion

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Re:

#4101 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:17 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It seems the models blow up something big over the central/eastern Great Lakes - since they are so much warmer than normal (I believe), is there any chance that the low can take on tropical or subtropical characteristics? How would that be named/assigned?


great lakes? nothing will get named there.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4102 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 10, 2012 3:04 am

The Great Lakes aren't large enough even if they were warm enough and shear-free enough. There's too much dry continental air floating around. It's the same reason you don't find tropical cyclones forming in the Sea of Cortez or the Red Sea, which are comparatively sized bodies of water.
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#4103 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:01 am

Models aren't hugely impressed at the moment, though the GFS does keep trying to kick start CV activity.

Pattern is reverting to a strong -ve NAO, which should mnean any long trackers will recurve probably before 50W, but a homebrew would be a big threat (IE forming in the Caribbean, or Bahamas region)
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#4104 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 10, 2012 9:39 am

i dont think a negative NAO is supportive of homebrews. a neg NAO means low pressure in the west atlantic which means nothing can sit stationary and develop. instead, energy immediately gets strung out and pulled NE.
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Re:

#4105 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:45 pm

rainstorm wrote:i dont think a negative NAO is supportive of homebrews. a neg NAO means low pressure in the west atlantic which means nothing can sit stationary and develop. instead, energy immediately gets strung out and pulled NE.

I thought lower average surface pressures favored storm development.
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Re: Re:

#4106 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 10, 2012 3:40 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
rainstorm wrote:i dont think a negative NAO is supportive of homebrews. a neg NAO means low pressure in the west atlantic which means nothing can sit stationary and develop. instead, energy immediately gets strung out and pulled NE.

I thought lower average surface pressures favored storm development.


it does in the deep tropics. but if you expect a stalled front off the SE coast to sit and develop you need a strong high in the NW atlantic to force any low sitting on the front to stall. if you have a trough off the NE COAST, as is the norm with a NEG NAO, then anything trying to develop cclose to the coast will simply get strung out and pulled NE. THE pattern caused by a NEG nao is the exact opposite of whats needed.
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Re: Re:

#4107 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:18 pm

rainstorm wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
rainstorm wrote:i dont think a negative NAO is supportive of homebrews. a neg NAO means low pressure in the west atlantic which means nothing can sit stationary and develop. instead, energy immediately gets strung out and pulled NE.

I thought lower average surface pressures favored storm development.


it does in the deep tropics. but if you expect a stalled front off the SE coast to sit and develop you need a strong high in the NW atlantic to force any low sitting on the front to stall. if you have a trough off the NE COAST, as is the norm with a NEG NAO, then anything trying to develop cclose to the coast will simply get strung out and pulled NE. THE pattern caused by a NEG nao is the exact opposite of whats needed.

ah ok, when yall were talking about homebrew I thought more about african waves that remained dormant until approaching the western caribbean, gulf, or se coast. Frontal development slipped my mind entirely.
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Re: Re:

#4108 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:15 am

rainstorm wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
rainstorm wrote:i dont think a negative NAO is supportive of homebrews. a neg NAO means low pressure in the west atlantic which means nothing can sit stationary and develop. instead, energy immediately gets strung out and pulled NE.

I thought lower average surface pressures favored storm development.


it does in the deep tropics. but if you expect a stalled front off the SE coast to sit and develop you need a strong high in the NW atlantic to force any low sitting on the front to stall. if you have a trough off the NE COAST, as is the norm with a NEG NAO, then anything trying to develop cclose to the coast will simply get strung out and pulled NE. THE pattern caused by a NEG nao is the exact opposite of whats needed.


How does a trough of the NE coast affect a developing system in the western caribbean?
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#4109 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:11 am

Isn't home brew anything that forms near the coast aka Western Atlantic? Not necessarily just from fronts but monsoonal troughs etc. Always thought even cape verde systems that do nothing until inside the Carib or Gulf was considered home brews also.
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#4110 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:19 am

Homebrew refers to both. Stalled fronts that spin up a low and develop just off our coast, and any tropical low that develops in the western Atlantic which can mean a greater threat of a land falling storm. The latter is what concerns most experts. The former happened early in the season, but conditions (lower sst's etc) wern't quite ready. The colder PDO will indeed help prevent close in development, but that doesn't mean thay still can't occur. The latter is yet to happen, and with any luck it won't. Finally, the heart of the season is approaching (Aug 15 to Oct 15) we still have pleanty of time to sweat.
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Re:

#4111 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:31 am

OuterBanker wrote:Homebrew refers to both. Stalled fronts that spin up a low and develop just off our coast, and any tropical low that develops in the western Atlantic which can mean a greater threat of a land falling storm. The latter is what concerns most experts. The former happened early in the season, but conditions (lower sst's etc) wern't quite ready. The colder PDO will indeed help prevent close in development, but that doesn't mean thay still can't occur. The latter is yet to happen, and with any luck it won't. Finally, the heart of the season is approaching (Aug 15 to Oct 15) we still have pleanty of time to sweat.



Image

thats what i mean by a negative NAO. its horrific for development in general basinwide and if anything were to develop off africa its a 100% certainty to recurve. this pattern must reverse or nothing much will happen.

ok, i give up on trying to post an image.
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#4112 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:42 am

Agreed rainstorm. Right now the negatives far outweigh the positives.
For once, I'm hoping it stays that way.
We are still dealing with last years negatives here.
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Re:

#4113 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:47 am

OuterBanker wrote:Agreed rainstorm. Right now the negatives far outweigh the positives.
For once, I'm hoping it stays that way.
We are still dealing with last years negatives here.



true. we have the double negative of a neg NAO combined with an el nino. the only positive i see is since the atlantic ridge is destroyed the SAL will no longer kill waves but it really doesnt matter at this point.
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#4114 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:42 am

MDR zone does look abit of a struggle, the waves are strong enough to get something going but conditions aren't good enough for much more.

As for homebrews, I was thinkiing very much of cut-off systems that maybe cold cored to start with but become warm cored. Most likely position for this would be just off the coast of the US and moving N/NE. Might not be that exciting to watch but you normally get at least 2-3 such systems in El Nino summers, you could say we've already had a couple of ones earlier thisseason as well. I personaly wouldn't be at all surprised to see another before August is out.

-ve NAO is not bad for development generally, it does mean recurvers in general but by lowering the pressure in the subtropics and reducing dry air in the process it does tend to lead to a better set-up for systems. Of course other factors can over-ride that and the El nino is certainly one such factor.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4115 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 am

Gotta give JB credit. Even in May he said it would be the systems near the US that would cause problems and that the open Atlantic would struggle.

Whatever your views on his AGW opinions, the guys is one of the best at long range patterns.

Also the fact that he thinks late August - Early September will be very active is enough for me to believe him.
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#4116 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:01 am

The pattern I see looks very favourable in the next 2 weeks for cut-off systems to form off fronts, I'd stake alot on such a system like that forming over the next 2 weeks. I could be wrong but it seems a good pattern with constant troughs digging down into the W.Atlantic.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4117 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:09 am

Keep in mind that JB is alerting his clients in the Southeast. I don't think he is looking for coastal mischief that immediately heads out to sea. Time will tell.
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Re:

#4118 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:00 am

KWT wrote:The pattern I see looks very favourable in the next 2 weeks for cut-off systems to form off fronts, I'd stake alot on such a system like that forming over the next 2 weeks. I could be wrong but it seems a good pattern with constant troughs digging down into the W.Atlantic.



"constant" isnt good. if 1 trough stalls off the coast and i high builds and locks in over new england thats a good set up. but if 1 front after another keeps blasting off the coast nothing will develop close to home.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4119 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:01 am

CourierPR wrote:Keep in mind that JB is alerting his clients in the Southeast. I don't think he is looking for coastal mischief that immediately heads out to sea. Time will tell.



i saw where he said that, but he hasnt tweeted about the tropics since.
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Re: Re:

#4120 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:10 am

rainstorm wrote:
KWT wrote:The pattern I see looks very favourable in the next 2 weeks for cut-off systems to form off fronts, I'd stake alot on such a system like that forming over the next 2 weeks. I could be wrong but it seems a good pattern with constant troughs digging down into the W.Atlantic.



"constant" isnt good. if 1 trough stalls off the coast and i high builds and locks in over new england thats a good set up. but if 1 front after another keeps blasting off the coast nothing will develop close to home.


Depends on whether you want landfalling hurricane that cause ruin or whether your interested in Tropical systems and hurricane forming?

In all honesty though I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference whether we have a negative or positive NAO for development, looking through the history of hurricanes it looks pretty equal with regards to active months (some were -ve, some were +ve)

Its interesting, I might do a little 'study' to see what 'produces' more storms and hurricanes...-ve or +ve
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