#4114 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:42 am
MDR zone does look abit of a struggle, the waves are strong enough to get something going but conditions aren't good enough for much more.
As for homebrews, I was thinkiing very much of cut-off systems that maybe cold cored to start with but become warm cored. Most likely position for this would be just off the coast of the US and moving N/NE. Might not be that exciting to watch but you normally get at least 2-3 such systems in El Nino summers, you could say we've already had a couple of ones earlier thisseason as well. I personaly wouldn't be at all surprised to see another before August is out.
-ve NAO is not bad for development generally, it does mean recurvers in general but by lowering the pressure in the subtropics and reducing dry air in the process it does tend to lead to a better set-up for systems. Of course other factors can over-ride that and the El nino is certainly one such factor.
Last edited by
KWT on Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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