ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Joe Bastardi has been saying since May that this season will be all about systems forming near the US and Western Caribbean. The rest of the basin is hostile but if something can develop in the western part of the basin then conditions are nearly perfect. Remember its only August 11th.

[floridasun78]

what we seen past two system that El Nino is taking control of tropical season by neck we now entering peck part season look how system been shear and dry air been all over

[floridasun78]

yes one form near usa will most likely be play maker if shear is low

[jinftl]

More or less TD 7 was very similar in location, track, time of year, and cause of demise to Tropical Storm Earl that formed in 2004 (also a season with a weak el nino during the peak). Earl did make it to an estimated peak of 50 mph at his peak but the lowest pressure he ever reached was 1009 mb during his 48 hour lifespan. Sound familiar?

Earl formed from a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on 10 August. The wave developed into a tropical depression on 13 August while centered about 1000 n mi east of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical cyclone was embedded in deep easterly flow to the south of a strong subtropical ridge and moved westward at 18 to 25 kt during its 48 hours of existence. Based on banding features observed on satellite imagery and the associated Dvorak intensity estimates, the depression is estimated to have strengthened to Tropical Storm Earl on 14 August while centered about 325 n mi east of Barbados.

Earl moved quickly across the southern Windward Islands on 15 August with maximum one-minute surface wind speeds estimated at 45 kt and briefly brought tropical storm conditions or near-tropical storm conditions to Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Shortly thereafter, even though the system appeared to be well-organized on satellite imagery, a hurricane hunter aircraft reported that the low level circulation was not well-defined, probably due to the fast forward speed of motion. Earl degenerated to an open tropical wave later on 15 August. The remnant wave was eventually tracked to the eastern Pacific Ocean where it developed into Hurricane Frank on 23 August.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004earl.shtml#FIG1

[cycloneye]

This excerpt from discussion.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.

[tailgater]

West wind but no clear LLC found, IMO.

Agree, not much there. Recon is finding a weak/weakening TD. Good news for the islands. And good news for me, as I can head out on a 6-hr bike ride in 15 min an not worry about Seven.

I was thinking that they will probably make it Gordy. I'll wait on this next pass but the wind field seem pretty decent on that first pass. now I will admit the convection might not support TS status.

Again proving how little I know.

[cheezyWXguy]

This excerpt from discussion.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.

Im not surprised. Having the hurricane hunters fly out there for such a weak system with a practically inevitable outcome of degeneration. They really do deserve thanks not only for what they do in the big monsters, but also for even taking the time, money and resources to do a flight on something as pathetic as this one.

[wkwally]

Do not need that blue paint

[christchurchguy]

quite well defined as a sharp wave on radar now though, but lost convection

[jinftl]

The system may not have a closed circulation but it certainly contains inclement weather.

Per 11am NHC Discussion:
HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.



Reports of some rough conditions already in Tobago today:

Date & Time: Saturday August 11, 2012 – 11:30 a.m.
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management has received reports that residents in Westvale Park, Holder Drive and La Horquette Valley Road have been marooned due to a collapsed bridge. Additionally, the flash flooding in Glencoe/Carenage area has resulted in the destruction of the roadway with asphalt eroded and Westvale Avenue under many feet of water. Residents are being asked to find safer shelter and move to higher ground. All residents affected should ensure they are safe and take all precautions to preserve life.
http://www.odpm.gov.tt/node/557

[Portastorm]

what we seen past two system that El Nino is taking control of tropical season by neck we now entering peck part season look how system been shear and dry air been all over

I'm not so sure about this, floridasun78. The "screaming" westerlies associated with El Nino are not happening at the moment in the western Atlantic basin. Most of the pro mets I have seen online seem to think conditions are more like ENSO neutral right now. Nino may become more of an issue as we get closer to fall. TD #7 died because it never got its act together structurally. Dry air and shear and a very fast speed strangled the life out of it.

[brunota2003]

Well this is an interesting tcpod. One mission was canceled while the other was puhes back 6 hours. Looks like recon will be flying tomorrow evening (as of right now).



000
NOUS42 KNHC 111523
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 11 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 -
MISSION DELAYED 6 HOURS FROM TASKED MISSION ON TCPOD 12-084
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 12/1630Z
D. 13.3N 68W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION NEAR 14N AND 74W
IF SYSTEM BECOMES A THREAT.

3. REMARK: 12/0000Z-0600Z MISSION WAS CANCELLED BY NHC 11/1500Z.

[RL3AO]

Not even to the islands yet and the fix is set for 68W...amazing. No wonder its struggling. Storms aren't supposed to move that fast in the tropics.

[Shuriken]

It may be a wave again, but it's a big, powerful wave.

Good odds you'll be seeing it again in the west end.

[Riptide]

Have fun tracking the 'remnants' of a tropical depression, i'm already tired of this hurricane season.

[chrisjslucia]

Well visibility negligible, tremendous thunder, heavy rain, light winds. The remnant is arriving here in St Lucia. Martinique has disappeared from view so while you enjoy your bike rides (Wxman57) we'll be mopping!

[HouTXmetro]

Any chance this regenerates down the road?

[Nimbus]

The energy is a little further north than Earls remnants and the TUTT is likely to increase thunderstorms on the northern end of the wave.

We would need several days of stiff shear to remove all the energy from this wave and it will travel west out from under the influence of the TUTT. Saves a lot of expensive resources not having to track it for now though.

[Aric Dunn]

would have to say that if convection continues to build the way it is we may see regeneration sooner rather than later.

[floridasun78]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS NOW LOCATED VERY NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refr ... 1733.shtml