ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[FireBird]

Another update from Trinidad.
One man died in a landslide a couple miles from here.
He was the brother of one of my nursing staff.
We took a drive and made a loop of about 3 miles.
The damage is extensive.
Major property damages.
Roads, bridges, walls - completely destroyed.
Homes - flooded with mud and/or mudslide.
There is no water as 10 stations in the North are affected.
The telecommunication system (mobile and landline) is down.
There is mud everywhere.
Going back out to clean, and heading out to help friends throw out all their belongings........

[Gustywind]

Another update from Trinidad.
One man died in a landslide a couple miles from here.
He was the brother of one of my nursing staff.
We took a drive and made a loop of about 3 miles.
The damage is extensive.
Major property damages.
Roads, bridges, walls - completely destroyed.
Homes - flooded with mud and/or mudslide.
There is no water as 10 stations in the North are affected.
The telecommunication system (mobile and landline) is down.
There is mud everywhere.
Going back out to clean, and heading out to help friends throw out all their belongings........

Glad to have these informations . The situation is becoming worrying in Trinidad . Thanks to keep us informed. Hope that things will calm down a bit. Be safe and dry and vigilant!

[Shuriken]

Any chance this regenerates down the road?

IMO, high odds. While its LLC croaked, the storm itself has rapidly grown in size. The wave is generating convection along a full ten degrees of latitude from 8N in South America to 18N east of the Virgins (contrast to yesterday, where there were a few lone CBs near the center). There is no shear in the southern portion of the wave, and surface southerlies are screaming into the bottom of the wave just east of the islands. Water temps are 29C.

My guess is a new LLC forms under renewed heavy convention just north of South America sometime later tonight, around 13N, making a brush by the ABCs Sunday/Monday.

[Sanibel]

That's pretty bad for just one heavy cell in Trinidad.


The east Caribbean usually shreds weak waves that enter at such strength as this one. We'll see if climatology rescues it.


If it regenerates it will be over the original center in my opinion seeing how southern reformations are almost unheard of due to poleward.

['CaneFreak]

I hear Bones calling...he's saying, "IT'S DEAD JIM".

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

925 mb vorticity maps over the past few hours reveal a sharp spike in not only the strength of the vorticity, but a consolidation of the vorticity as well.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the best chances for regenesis are in the EPAC.

[Portastorm]

The vorticity at the 700mb and 850mb levels looks fairly vigorous late this Saturday afternoon. Hmmm ....

[wxman57]

this going bad season for tropical system because pre elnino weather event that causing alot shear asnd dry air in tropical

However,the experts like NOAA,Klotzbach/Gray and TSR increased their numbers on their August forecasts.

With 6 storms as of their updates, that's only another 7-8 storms during peak season - below normal.

[wxman57]

I'd say the best chances for regenesis are in the EPAC.

Agree - ridge building over the Gulf next week should keep it moving west and not into the Gulf.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont think it will make comeback now

[Portastorm]

I'd say the best chances for regenesis are in the EPAC.

Agree - ridge building over the Gulf next week should keep it moving west and not into the Gulf.

If it was slower, things might have gotten interesting next weekend with the massive trough digging into the central and eastern US but this system won't be around the WATL basin by then.

[Aric Dunn]

It quite possible it makes a come back. convection building.

[Caribwxgirl]

It quite possible it makes a come back. convection building.

Though I have no real experience in these things looking at the satellite imagery I tend to agree with your statement

[NDG]

Just like Ernesto I think it will regenerate into a storm once it gets in the western Caribbean.
GFS now has been persistent in not tracking it towards the EPAC, at least that quick.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS wants to regenerate TD 7 in the northwestern GOM next weekend.

18z GFS

[ronjon]

Just like Ernesto I think it will regenerate into a storm once it gets in the western Caribbean.
GFS now has been persistent in not tracking it towards the EPAC, at least that quick.

18z GFS now brings it into the NW GOM in 7 days.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is now under an orange alert for a risk of strong showers tstorms and rough sea. Given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Mets, Guadeloupe should experience rainfall values between 100 to 150 millimiters during next 12 hours.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime() ( French version for those who are interrested ).

[Gustywind]

11/1745 UTC 14.1N 59.1W T1.0/2.0 07L

[Hurricaneman]

18Z GFS wants to regenerate TD 7 in the northwestern GOM next weekend.

18z GFS

And send it to the Florida Panhandle, even though you have to take the 204hr 18zgfs with a grain of salt

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