EPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Can the EPAC get its 7th strait cane in a row?

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep082012.ren
FSTDA
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U
040
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201208111610
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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[cycloneye]

EP, 08, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1056W, 30, 1002, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Weatherguy173]

my friends, we have Tropical Depression EIGHT-E! It looks quite large for a depression!

10:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 11
Location: 17.5°N 106.0°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY.
THEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD
OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[FutureEM]

Local met says the NOGAPS brings it abnormally close to California. Is this true? I can't even find a Navy run that shows the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

[Weatherguy173]

Local met says the NOGAPS brings it abnormally close to California. Is the true? I can't even find a Navy run that shows the EPAC.

now wouldn't that be something?! i doubt it would happen though... but fabio's moisture and remnants brought rain to so cal. even though the odds are against it, don't rule out a possibility of some remnants bringing rain to either california or the baja.

[FutureEM]

Local met says the NOGAPS brings it abnormally close to California. Is the true? I can't even find a Navy run that shows the EPAC.

now wouldn't that be something?! i doubt it would happen though... but fabio's moisture and remnants brought rain to so cal. even though the odds are against it, don't rule out a possibility of some remnants bringing rain to either california or the baja.

There might be something to that theory, check out what the CMC is doing here:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[Zanthe]

Local met says the NOGAPS brings it abnormally close to California. Is this true? I can't even find a Navy run that shows the EPAC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... hurricanes

Very interesting list.

[brunota2003]

From above:

After October, 1854: A system considered to be a tropical cyclone made landfall over Northern California, just north of the Golden Gate Bridge.[7]
October 2, 1858: The 1858 San Diego Hurricane approached very close to southern California. It brought several hours of hurricane and gale-force winds to an area stretching from San Diego to Los Angeles. This storm is reconstructed as just missing making landfall, dissipating offshore.[6]
Before June or after October, 1859: A system considered a tropical cyclone made landfall between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco Bay.[7]

(Cape Mendocino is north of SFB)

Could you imagine a tropical cyclone striking San Francisco? Wow...that would totally blow our minds! And a hurricane hitting San Diego? Those would cause so much damage if they hit today!

[Weatherguy173]

Local met says the NOGAPS brings it abnormally close to California. Is the true? I can't even find a Navy run that shows the EPAC.

now wouldn't that be something?! i doubt it would happen though... but fabio's moisture and remnants brought rain to so cal. even though the odds are against it, don't rule out a possibility of some remnants bringing rain to either california or the baja.

There might be something to that theory, check out what the CMC is doing here:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

seems pretty interesting...

[CrazyC83]

Officially, these are two separate cyclones though in the best track?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Officially, these are two separate cyclones though in the best track?

Yes, because Ernesto's low-level circulation dissipated over the mountains of Mexico and it's mid-level circulation worked down after crossing.

[brunota2003]

8E looks really good, circulation wise...it is really winding up on visible. Convection wise.........not so much. A mess for sure.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah some models really do bring this close to SoCal...

[cycloneye]

Hello Hector!

EP, 08, 2012081200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1077W, 35, 999, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[CrazyC83]

I find it hard to fathom a system surviving to California without a strong El Nino in place.

[Kingarabian]

I find it hard to fathom a system surviving to California without a strong El Nino in place.

Heck even a strong El Nino wouldn't do the job.

You would need an El Nino on steroids.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CYCLONE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT HECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT CAN OCCUR. AFTER THAT TIME...WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD WEAKEN...HECTOR WILL NEAR VERY
CLOSE TO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS
ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT HECTOR
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 290/11...A BIT FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER. A RIDGE OVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE COULD
WEAKEN AND STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN BY 24 HOURS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTH OF WEST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HECTOR INTERACTING WITH THE ACTIVE ITCZ NEAR MEXICO.
WITH THE MODEL DIVERGENCE...IT IS USUALLY BEST TO STAY NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 18.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 18.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.4N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE