WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

West of Guam.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES WELL
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 101036Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) TO SPEAK OF. A 100009Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING, BUT IS INSUFFICIENT IN DETERMINING
IF THE DISTURBANCE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS POINT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
137.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES
WELL EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
102328Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 101406Z PARTIAL OSCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK (05-10
KNOT) CLOSED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

euro actually develops this into a weak storm as it heads for taiwan...

[mrbagyo]

LATEST VISIBLE

I think the LLC is now in 133E 15N-16N...

[climateconcern23]

It seems that this system actually tracking more west. oh, another threat to unfold for Philippines. People here are still in many evacuation centers due to extensive floods brought by SWMS during early days of the week.

God is the blessing Philippines!

[oaba09]

Im actually a little paranoid now because the country hasn't recovered from the floods yet.

[euro6208]

it looks like its trying to organized...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N
137.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES WELL EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
110351Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION, THE BULK OF WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRESUMED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

having bad flashbacks of Ketsana and Parma. Ketsana did the flooding, then there came Parma even before people could recover. just this time, it was the monsoon without a real storm that caused the floods and then there's this system that doesn't want to give a break.

anyway, this tropical disturbance seems to be composed by multiple vortices just like the previous storms that we had. seems to be spinning up and heading west but the models say this is gonna pass somewhere between Batanes islands and Taiwan as a weak system...but that's what they say as of now. Whatever happens, I'll be watching this thing closely until it's gone.

[mrbagyo]

Upgraded to medium by jtwc

[dexterlabio]

JMA:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 132E WNW SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

well defined LLC with bandings developing...coulkd this become our 14th tropical cyclone?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N
134.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 111458Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIGHT (10 KT)
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE LARGELY
RAIN-FLAGGED WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 111420Z PARTIAL TRMM PASS
REVEALS LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES APPROXIMATELY FIVE
DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS VWS RELAXES AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES,
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO
THE WELL DEFINIED LLCC AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

on the board....with 1.0

TXPQ21 KNES 120339
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 12/0232Z

C. 16.7N

D. 132.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EXHIBITS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. AN 0109Z ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED. GT 0.2 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Meow]

A TD now.



WWJP25 RJTD 120000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120000.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 132E WNW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Meow]

TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 120700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 131.3E TO 17.3N 125.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 134.0E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND A PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTED BY A 120108Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS, HAS EMERGED. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE NOTICEABLY DEEPENED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 28-30 CELSIUS, ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE ONGOING
CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130700Z. //
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

GFS lates run has this system a lot stronger and heading towards Taiwan. Euro again is not pleased with this system.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Oh yeah Dexter, that GFS track reminds me a lot of Sepat in 2007! Convection looking solid at the moment, latest from JTWC:


629
TPPN10 PGTW 120907

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF LUZON)

B. 12/0832Z

C. 17N

D. 129.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 FRAGMENTED WRAP YIELDS A DT
OF 2.0. PT WAS 1.5; MET WAS N/A. DBO PT AS WRAP IS FRAGMENTED
AND MAY NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF STORM INTENSITY.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 121207

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF LUZON)

B. 12/1132Z

C. 16.8N

D. 129.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .45 FRAGMENTED WRAP YIELDS A DT
OF 2.0. PT AGREES; MET IS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0634Z 16.6N 129.7E MMHS


LONG




...maybe a 30-knot TD from JTWC in the next warning?

[dexterlabio]

Oh yeah Dexter, that GFS track reminds me a lot of Sepat in 2007!

...also the same month of August, that super typhoon was quite memorable for me that year..Sepat also dumped lots of rain across Luzon too via enhanced monsoon.

Right now monsoon is no fun for the Philippines, I wonder if this system will also be a rainmaker in the coming days.

[dexterlabio]

i see 14W on NRL page. :>