ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Portastorm]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

Today it will be moving into an area of 20-25 knot southwesterly shear. Tough road ahead for certain.



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[AJC3]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

Seriously, seriously doubt it. The vort center is passing just north of 42059 and it's winds are out of the northeast at 16P20kt.

[floridasun78]

it look ex td 7 done

[NDG]

Interesting microwave shot this morning of the remnants of TD7, it actually looks better than yesterday morning's cyclonic turning & banding.

[floridasun78]

i say that because shear to north and western carribbean

[NDG]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

Seriously, seriously doubt it. The vort center is passing just north of 42059 and it's winds are out of the northeast at 16P20kt.

It still looks that the vort center is still east of the buoy, most of the morning the buoy was reporting NNE winds, though I agree with you that at least at the surface the circulation is not closed off, I think that at the surface it is still just a sharp trough because of its fast movement.

[Sanibel]

If it makes it past Jamaica it should re-fire.


Weak systems "skip" in this area and the west winds are missed. That buoy shows 29.87 and falling.

[Shuriken]

It's starting to re-build an anticyclone aloft over itself: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4vis04

[Nimbus]

These low flying recon planes are handy to have
looks like the surface pressure gradient is still intact with lowest pressure near 1011 MB's. The convection is still lagging to the east and I would still classify it a fast moving open wave.

Glad I checked in, will set the coffee maker for an early morning brew and look for a closed off low again Tomorrow morning somewhere along 16N.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

Seriously, seriously doubt it. The vort center is passing just north of 42059 and it's winds are out of the northeast at 16P20kt.

its pretty evident where it is.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

becoming slightly more defined this afternoon.

type the coordinates in or click you will see is. its still weak not a defined enough ( or fully to the surface yet but cant be too far) to be TD yet but convection is building.

16.70° N 68.46° W (X=456 Y=405)

[AJC3]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

Seriously, seriously doubt it. The vort center is passing just north of 42059 and it's winds are out of the northeast at 16P20kt.

its pretty evident where it is.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

becoming slightly more defined this afternoon.

type the coordinates in or click you will see is. its still weak not a defined enough ( or fully to the surface yet but cant be too far) to be TD yet but convection is building.

16.70° N 68.46° W (X=456 Y=405)

Oh, it's obvious there's a well defined vort, just not a closed off wind circulation.

And I fixed the vort using radar/sat composite about a degree farther south - around 15.8N, which means it passed about 40NM or so north of buoy 42059.

[Shuriken]

Oh, it's obvious there's a well defined vort, just not a closed off wind circulation.

I believe there will be shortly, as the system is becoming rapidly more organized in just the last few hours. (The ghcc 1km zooms are quite useful here with their sub-15m updating.)

[cycloneye]

ATCF made an update at 18z on the Best Track for AL07.

AL, 07, 2012081218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 680W, 25, 1011, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Aric Dunn]

well it doing better than i thought it would there is at least some curvature s likely at leadt nw wind s

[floridasun78]

i dont think ex 7 will be back because of shear

[Rgv20]

NWS Corpus Christi take on the long range fate of the remnants of TD7

"GULF MOISTURE INCREASES FRI AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TD#7 ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS IS ENOUGH TO PLACE CHC POPS IN THE
WEEKEND EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS MORE AGRESSIVE AND SPINS UP A
SPOT LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...WHERE AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN
OPEN WAVE."


NWS Brownsville

"THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION."

[ROCK]

It's starting to re-build an anticyclone aloft over itself: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4vis04

yes it is....good catch...shear reduces tremendously in front of it.....just a little further...

[ROCK]

I havent seen Bones yet so that tells me there still is a chance......or WXMN57 is riding his bike...

[tailgater]

24 hr shear forecast

36

48


I think I'd give it a better than 10% chance but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, A lot of dry air still out there.

[ROCK]

The 0zGFS shows consistancy with exTD7 heading for the big bend of Florida in 204 hrs, this is IMO becoming a possible scenerio, but we need a few more runs showing this solution before I make a call, but this will probably regenerate near 12N 77W in 54hrs like the 0zGFS shows

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agree....it should slow down and that will help....also shear is reducing ahead of it, and its starting to form an anti-cyclone over it....you can see the 850mb vort is strong all they way up to 500MB....dry air is not that big of a deal either...the TUTT that is dropping down over it is shearing it right now but as soon as it moves past that it might help vent.....interesting...