ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Houstonia]

I think some of the forecasters are looking at what COULD happen, as opposed to what is out there.

Jeff Masters at Wunderground:

"Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Though no models are showing tropical storm development will occur, wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms."

[wxman57]

Agree, Houstonia. Gulf does look like a favorable environment for thunderstorms in the coming week, and all thunderstorm complexes should be monitored closely.

[N2Storms]

[quote="wxman57"]Agree, Houstonia. Gulf does look like a favorable environment for thunderstorms in the coming week, and all thunderstorm complexes should be monitored closely.[/quote]


This tidbit from NWS Tallahassee....


At surface, models diverge but in better agreement
than 24hrs ago. As the upper trough digs, GFS lifts ridge axis NWD
and develops an area of low PRESSURE in the WRN Gulf and steers it
and deeper tropical moisture with locally heavy RAINFALL NEWD
toward the FL Panhandle during weekend. Conversely, ECMWF shifts
ridge axis SWD, and shows no such Gulf low development. But both
models now show upper flow at base of trough largely parallel to
front on Sun and stalls front just north of CWA keeping CWA in
warm sector.

[ozonepete]

Hmmmm....

[floridasun78]

Hmmmm....

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 132045.jpg

????

[tropicwatch]

"in the WRN Gulf and steers it
and deeper tropical moisture with locally heavy RAINFALL NEWD
toward the FL Panhandle during weekend"

This scenario would keep me off my boat for another weekend. I hope it doesn't happen that way. There is a King Mackerel with my name on it waiting to be caught

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASSED THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...THE WAVE IS
LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Ev1948]

I don't know where to put this, but who or what is Bones? Been seeing the name posted a lot.

[NDG]

I doubt the recon will be flown into the remnants of TD7 tomorrow, there is nothing at the surface other than a sharp trough.
I say lets wait until parts of this system gets into the southern GOM this weekend.

[rainstorm]

looks like its gaining convection tonight. too bad it isnt a bit further north.

[NDG]

0z tropical models were run on the remnants of TD 7

[NDG]

Not much organization left of the remnants of TD7 tonight.

[solshaker]

12Z GFS in the medium range,,,'

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i dont see any thing

Look in the BOC at the end of the run

wow. looks like some rain.

[Nimbus]

Finally managed to get west of the shear off South America. Doesn't have much time to develop before it approaches the Honduran coastline but probably more than zero percent chance of making depression status again before crossing the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[NDG]

I would had thought that our TX members would be excited about the last 3 runs of the GFS. Whether it redevelops or not of least bringing the moisture up from TD7 remants to TX by early next week.
Unlike Ernesto a deep trough will dig down the MS river valley along with a stronger Bermuda ridge east of FL will create southerly winds across the western GOM. I could see this happening. The only thing going against this scenario is that the GFS still does not have any other global model support with the ECMWF & CMC showing a stronger ridge across the GOM to push everything towards MX.

[Rgv20]

I have been following closely but I have been posting in the Texas Summer 2012......Going to be interesting as the GFS has good Ensemble support but your right on it being the only Model who is forecasting a TC to take shape.

[wxman57]

I already have measured 49.84" of rain this year (total of 21" in 2011). Don't really need more rain in SE TX. They can have it in south TX and the Hill Country.

[Nikki]

I already have measured 49.84" of rain this year (total of 21" in 2011). Don't really need more rain in SE TX. They can have it in south TX and the Hill Country.

You took the words "right out of my mouth". I was going to say the same thing, if this "storm" is going to bring rain to TX, let it be in the places that need it the most!!

[wxwatcher1999]

If it redevelops in the boc how far north is it showing landfall?