Some intensity going now in TD 12 with a burst of.........

[wxman57]

Just saw your post above mine, SF. But I disagree that any data indicated close to TS strength. The plane found only 38 kts at FL (Flight Level), but this was a very low-level investigation, FL was 1500 ft not 10,000 ft. The conversion from 1500 ft to the surface is close to 30% vs. 10% for 10,000 ft. So multiply 38 x 0.7 = 26.6 kts surface, which was about the max that the plane indicated at the surface. If you assume 80% of 1500 winds then that's still only 30kts at the surface. It would take a 45kt FL 1500 ft report to reach TS force. Sure, I think it was a stronger TD this morning for a while, but I still see no evidence that it was a TS today. I'll concede that the plane may not have sampled the highest wind area, and that it may have been on the edge of becoming a TS for a while, and the NHC certainly showed some restraint today. But I guarantee that if the plane had found a 45kt wind at FL then it would have become Henri on the next advisory.


Here's the latest (01Z) buoy plots:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/td12b.gif">