ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

Convection beginning to fire right around the center. should go up to 80 at 8pm at probably upgrade tomorrow.

[wxman57]

I guess that now that it's out of the tropics it should develop.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess that now that it's out of the tropics it should develop.

right lol.

[CrazyC83]

Depending on how much baroclinic energy comes into this system, could it be a significant threat for the Azores?

[hurricanes1234]

Very impressive looking - the only problem is a lack of deep convection. Notice there are only blues and yellows on the AVN imagery instead of oranges, reds and greys. But considering the warm SSTs, light shear and recently moistened environment, this shouldn't be a problem and I still think we could still be tracking a TD at 2 AM tomorrow for the earliest.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looks impressive to my amateur eye. Covection should start firing soon.

[Hammy]

there's also been fairly quick thickening of the clouds around what seems to be a developing circulation center--I'd say NHC goes at least to 70% on next TWO and probably a depression (or even storm) within 24 hours at this point


-personal opinion and not official forecast-

[KWT]

I'd say unless it gets cluttered by shear, its got a good chance of becoming at least a TD, possibly a TS.

Remember the furthur north it goes, the weaker the convection will get and the less the convective depth will matter.

[MGC]

Looks like convection is fireing near the circulation center.....93L is looking better and better.....MGC

[Shuriken]

What are the chances of this "pulling an IKE" (eventually scooting west-southwest)?

[KWT]

Pretty much 0, its not going to happen. Nice large weakness for this to move into, heck even as an invest its been moving NW/WNW, the only slight headache is if it gets left behind as the weakness withdraws and higher pressure rebuilds in, but even so that'll just lead to a stall.

[hurricanes1234]

I am seeing a vigorous tropical wave to the extreme right of the eastern Atlantic satellite image. Is there a blog for this one? What do the intensity models predict this one to do? Convection looks rather violent in the main area of thundershowers. The image is from August 14th 2012 and was taken at 18:00 UTC.

Warning: This post is slightly off-topic.

[cycloneye]

I am seeing a vigorous tropical wave to the extreme right of the eastern Atlantic satellite image. Is there a blog for this one? What do the intensity models predict this one to do? Convection looks rather violent in the main area of thundershowers. The image is from August 14th 2012 and was taken at 18:00 UTC.

Warning: This post is slightly off-topic.

There is a thread at Talking Tropics forum for that wave.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113343&p=2250291#p2250291

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF
A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

There we go again, it's stuck at 50%. It did this same thing just off the coast of Africa before rapidly spinning down to 10%. In addition to this, the cloud pattern leaves the center somewhat exposed in the eastern half, a feature that wasn't there earlier today. The cloudtops have also warmed a bit compared to when I made my last post about it.

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012081500, , BEST, 0, 256N, 533W, 25, 1014, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[NDG]

I am thinking that if convection persists during the night and into tomorrow near the COC it will get upgraded to TD sometime tomorrow.

[floridasun78]

id it start moving nw yet? got home work it do look better on sat pic

[SouthDadeFish]

Still not closed yet:

[Hurricane Alexis]

Up to 60 percent

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.